TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

IMO -

1) the Skabooshka account is posting made-up stuff. Shorts control the account.

2) Things look rosy at first, in order to hook the bulls.

3) as soon as they need weak longs to exit, they will post made-up figures about stoppages, slow-downs etc etc.

4) We will get the latest figures in about two weeks, and the Skabooshka account will be forgotten.

Don't pay attention to it as TSLA runs up to ER.

While I'm here... I think we are in the middle of a slow rally up to ER. As usual there will be a sell-off the day of, and day after the ER, but it will climb further after that.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm debating how to play the ER myself, and wondering if it's worth trying to time the short attacks for my own benefit. It feels like TSLA might run up to ER like NFLX did and then do a sudden drop and recovery. There's money to be made in puts and calls there, but I'm not experienced enough to pretend I know what I'm doing and try to make a play for a quick profit.

 

[sundaymorning]

I'm debating how to play the ER myself, and wondering if it's worth trying to time the short attacks for my own benefit. It feels like TSLA might run up to ER like NFLX did and then do a sudden drop and recovery. There's money to be made in puts and calls there, but I'm not experienced enough to pretend I know what I'm doing and try to make a play for a quick profit.

It’s never easy with tsla.

 

[HG Wells]

What happened to premarket around 6 am? Down 7. Cant see volume at that time. Or trades.
Whats a good site to see data for premarket ?

 

[anon]

Tesla is down pre-market because an analyst downgraded over increased Model 3 cancellations and slowing Model S and X sales: Tesla shares fall after Needham downgrades to sell, citing possible increase in Model 3 cancellations

Somehow, despite thinking that Model 3 cancellations are increasing, the analyst also thinks that people could be waiting until 2020 to get their cars - he thinks this may be why people are cancelling. So I'm really struggling to understand why he thinks there is a problem if he believes the backlog is that long. He seems to be making this circular argument: Tesla's backlog is too large, which means people are cancelling because they are irritated about waiting, so Tesla has a problem because their backlog is going down.

 

[mongo]

Relevent, but obvious, observation:
When Tesla releases FSD, EAP and FSD upgrades on the existing fleet (along with unclaimed portion of existing sales) are going to provide a large cash influx and SP bump.

Now into the fog:

also admit that I'm skeptical of Tesla's approach. I think you're going to need the LIDAR. I'll admit I could be wrong, but I think there are enough edge cases that make LIDAR necessary.

Google needs vision (required for any sort of traffic control device/ pedestrian vs shrubbery identification) more than Tesla needs Lidar (matter detector).

Tesla is still at zero. Still no cross-country trip. Still no journalist test drives. Still no test cars on real roads.

Wrong. Concider this: EAP miles are not reported to regulators. Why? The hands-on-wheel nag. As long as Tesla leaves that in place, they can run and test full FSD code.
Elon Musk expects to do coast-to-coast autonomous Tesla drive in 3 to 6 months

Tesla's approach can't just magically work overnight. They need to start testing on real roadways soon.

You are conflating public access and internal development. Every feature on a Tesla appears magically overnight... (and by magic I mean an OTA update).

They need to start marketing its release (put big "self driving Tesla" branding on the test cars on the road). They need to start building trust.

People / Media are already advertising a self-driving system that Tesla hasn't released. No benefit to fanning the flames or making people more antsy for the release. (See first point)

 

[rameshbende]

I'm debating how to play the ER myself, and wondering if it's worth trying to time the short attacks for my own benefit. It feels like TSLA might run up to ER like NFLX did and then do a sudden drop and recovery. There's money to be made in puts and calls there, but I'm not experienced enough to pretend I know what I'm doing and try to make a play for a quick profit.

My guess is after ER stock goes up based on following assumptions
GAAP Loss of 550 million indicating loss is getting smaller as model 3 ramps hence Q3 profitability
15K plus model 3 deliveries in July making it in top 15 or 20 car in US (12K model 3 produced but not delivered in Q2)
15K plus model 3 produced in July (Debunking 5K sustainability)
6K per week by end of August reiterated. and time line for 10K by Q2 2019
Tesla energy increased sales. Powerwall 2 ramping and Solar roof ramp projection details.
Autopilot update and FSD coming soon in August confirmed in earnings call.

 

[gora321]

What happened to premarket around 6 am? Down 7. Cant see volume at that time. Or trades.
Whats a good site to see data for premarket ?

Try: finanztreff.de - Börseninformationen - Kurse, Aktien, Anleihen, Optionsscheine, Fonds, Nachrichten, Termine, Devisen

 

[copyhacker]

He seems to be making this circular argument: Tesla's backlog is too large, which means people are cancelling because they are irritated about waiting, so Tesla has a problem because their backlog is going down.

In other words, nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.

 

[Boomer19]

Tesla is down pre-market because an analyst downgraded over increased Model 3 cancellations and slowing Model S and X sales: Tesla shares fall after Needham downgrades to sell, citing possible increase in Model 3 cancellations

Somehow, despite thinking that Model 3 cancellations are increasing, the analyst also thinks that people could be waiting until 2020 to get their cars - he thinks this may be why people are cancelling. So I'm really struggling to understand why he thinks there is a problem if he believes the backlog is that long. He seems to be making this circular argument: Tesla's backlog is too large, which means people are cancelling because they are irritated about waiting, so Tesla has a problem because their backlog is going down.

typcial. according to “their checks” cancellations outweigh deposits.

just like S, then X.. except stakes are highest now, so the storm will reach epic proportions for the next few months, until proven wrong and all arguments are exhausted. strap in.

 

[Boomer19]

sorry, where can i find the HP and torque equivalent for model 3 P vs just Dual motor? i looked forum model 3 specs but couldn’t find.

i could swear i’ve seen this somewhere

 

[Tslynk67]

As I remember it, the bulk of the reservations were made when the assumption was the M3 would come to market in 2019. Tesla are a year ahead of this, why would anyone cancel? I agree there will be a few who want the base model with a $7500 tax credit, but if I understand it correctly, you have to be a reasonably high-earner in order to get that credit anyway. So this is also somewhat counter-intuitive.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I agree, but they are charging ahead.

Google ordered 62,000 Chrysler Pacificas and 20,000 Jaguar SUVs. For delivery this year. All of them somewhere between level 3 and level 4.
.

Meh, now you're just making stuff up, like every other troll that shows up on this forum, posts like crazy for six mos. and then disappears.

The Pacificas will *begin* to be delivered at the end of this year, the iPace cars are scheduled to join the Google fleet in 2020. Googles problem isn't their ability to buy vehicles, it's the time it takes to retrofit each of those vehicles with an insane amount of additional hardware.

 

[mongo]

As I remember it, the bulk of the reservations were made when the assumption was the M3 would come to market in 2019. Tesla are a year ahead of this, why would anyone cancel? I agree there will be a few who want the base model with a $7500 tax credit, but if I understand it correctly, you have to be a reasonably high-earner in order to get that credit anyway. So this is also somewhat counter-intuitive.

In addition, with the pulled in lead times, Tesla should be adding orders for P/AWD/LR not reservations...

Every time I think of the EAP and FSD deferred demand/ deposits sitting out there, I wonder how shorts can sleep at night (unless it's not their money at stake). It is like the ultimate contract win, "Congratulations, you won the contract. Here is the full award amount of xxx $$$. The contract is now satisfied. Good day sir."

 

[madodel]

Tesla is down pre-market because an analyst downgraded over increased Model 3 cancellations and slowing Model S and X sales: Tesla shares fall after Needham downgrades to sell, citing possible increase in Model 3 cancellations

Somehow, despite thinking that Model 3 cancellations are increasing, the analyst also thinks that people could be waiting until 2020 to get their cars - he thinks this may be why people are cancelling. So I'm really struggling to understand why he thinks there is a problem if he believes the backlog is that long. He seems to be making this circular argument: Tesla's backlog is too large, which means people are cancelling because they are irritated about waiting, so Tesla has a problem because their backlog is going down.

Where do these people get training for this financial analyst job? Is it some state run program for the severely logic impaired?

 

[theschnell]

That Barron's article is awfully written and poorly explained, but there is a nugget of truth in there.

The article misses the brand value. I'm short, but even I will admit that driving a Model S is an awesome experience. There's real, but intangible value there.

Even if Tesla were valued like a traditional automaker, its brand would still justify a best-in-class valuation.

The trouble is valuing the future of the automaker industry. The industry will have a huge shift in the value chain with the creation of Level 4 autonomous vehicles. And I really believe Google/Waymo is going to dominate the autonomous vehicles war.

The reason is Google's talent and access to capital. They are really ****ing good at bleeding edge AI and Machine Learning. Tesla might have a long-term data advantage (and I stress might), but they don't have the talent advantage, and Google is getting close. They're doing amazing stuff with Google Assistant, Google News, medical imaging, etc.

Waymo cars are racking up serious miles on real roads and highways with no accidents. You see them here in San Francisco, and you see them in Phoenix.

Credit to GM/Cruise though. They're promising a car without a steering wheel in 2019.

Google does match Tesla's data collection. Part of how Google is overcoming their lack of data is by outright purchasing car feeds. They then use Recaptcha to train their object recognition models (ever been asked "which of these contains a stop sign?"). Android phones and Google maps users give it road and traffic data.

All of that does introduce one hilarious risk unique to Google: monopoly risk.

Regardless, whoever wins the race to scalable Level 4 autonomous driving will be on the brink of an incredible, world-changing opportunity. I don't think it will be Tesla. They will have to pull off a come from behind, and they're behind Google.

Without that, the question of how you value "traditional automakers" goes away, because the value chain is massively disrupted.

So to summarize, you’re short TSLA now because google will be the first to full autonomy (possible) and they will not sell that technology to other manufacturers but instead purchase vehicles / a vehicle manufacturer to build out their fleet (very unlikely and also a massive investment, but even if did happen would take a lot of time). To use your words differently. You can’t magically retrofit or build millions of vehicles with the necessary hardware for autonomous driving overnight. At absolute minimum this would only be reality two years from now. And you’re shorting TSLA now based on that unlikely possibility that best case scenario is two years out?

 

[dc_h]

recaptcha is more about validating their models than actually training, I suspect (as you're not clicking on the specific part of the image that should be tagged). IIRC it's been around long before any driving efforts, it was birthed by various other projects that predate their driving efforts by a fair amount I believe. That's not to say they can't use it for some pretty basic untargeted validation, but it's not really a direct path to training neural nets for autonomous cars.

As an added tool it is interesting to know why it’s always cars, stopsigns, hills and other features that could be part of a driving experience.

Are the captchas from waymo cars?

 

[Tslynk67]

Are the captchas from waymo cars?

If that's the case then they need to improve their camera quality...

Seriously, no private individual would buy one of these fugly contraptions with something like a roof-box on the top. Might work-out for car-sharing, but other than that...

 

[Irishjugg]

There are also a LOT of people waiting on the 36-49K version.

I'd agree with this as I think many will be inclined to take the $5k upgrades (Roof, Stereo, Interior etc ... )

I simply don't need 320 miles as I have a level 2 charger in my garage and rarely need to drive over 220 miles in a day. Even if I did need to drive more miles I'm sure I could hit a supercharger for a short period to get some additional range. I really think most people would be fine with the standard range and $9k for the larger battery is quite a bit of money. I also don't really care about 0-60 speed .... even the base model is plenty quick enough for me. I'd bet between $40-50k would be the sweet spot for many, especially if we could get the full tax credit which in my case would be $10k as I live in CA.

AND even at $35k a 30% margin is a pretty nice profit .... considering Tesla has much lower operating expenses (No Dealer markups, advertising, union labor ... etc....)

Cheers to the longs.[/QUOTE]
Count me in the standard range AWD bucket. I know of several others as well waiting in the same config.

 

[WarpedOne]

Google owns captcha?

That explains its utter uselessness / use-hell.