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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It should also be reasonable to think that a forum named www. teslamotorsclub .com would be a place where enthusiasts go, and haters do not.

I for one do not go over to the Honda Civic Owners forums and post crappy things. (in part because I used to own one)

But imagine a Subaru driver visiting Buick forums and taking issue with the stuff that was posted there. Doesn't make sense.

If you do not like Tesla, or want the company to fail, what are you posting here for? It won't work.
I think it's good to have dissenters, however there is a big difference between a dissenter using logical statements and referenced facts and the majority of the negative statements we wade through on this forum.
 
It should also be reasonable to think that a forum named www. teslamotorsclub .com would be a place where enthusiasts go, and haters do not.

I for one do not go over to the Honda Civic Owners forums and post crappy things. (in part because I used to own one)

But imagine a Subaru driver visiting Buick forums and taking issue with the stuff that was posted there. Doesn't make sense.

If you do not like Tesla, or want the company to fail, what are you posting here for? It won't work.

Yes, but this is missing the point. Most of the shorts/bears/trolls* post here want Tesla to fail either because they are shorted, hate them or are paid by oil/incumbets/the Kocks, etc.

* Delete as applicable
 
I can understand that people reading this thread and posting daily get buggered off by constant trolling by shorts, but that's what the report to mod button is for. To be honest the quality at TMC has deteriorated from the longs side. The retorts of go and die etc are not something I (as a long) want to read. I come to the investors discussion forum to read the latest minutia about TSLA as well as analyses and debates on the facts and rumours that have surfaced as well as debates on future predictions.

Those all could use the opposing side as well and while we know that many of the bear arguments are flawed inherently and therefore their arguments might be confusing and look like trolling (and often times are trolling), then the response from longs should be facts based and not down to mudslinging. If someone is truly trolling and harrassing, then report to mods and he'll get moderated or banned.

There is a saying that "Never let idiots draw you down to their level as they'll beat you then with experience".

More common sense and calm please. I really don't want to read 4-5 pages of trolling and arguing and harrassments by longs towards shorts. There are a few shorts that bring decent points and counter arguments and the hatred that spews towards them angers them as well and makes them retort back getting them banned or muted. This beats the whole purpose of the investors analysis part where different counterpoints are discussed.
 
I am looking at this from a relative distance from Europe. Very happy S85D driver, Model 3 reserved.
Have no Tesla stocks or derivatives.

I do see Tesla as the company that is best positioned to reap the benefits of the fact that the sun rises every day.
With solar power generation, storage, distribution (superchargers), electric vehicles, autonomous technology all in one chain. And with a major technological and economical lead in each of the shackles in that chain. With an energy transition ahead of us that is largely solar and battery constrained.

Tesla: A current and future gem I would think.

And it does really baffle me why the USA in general is treating this gem with such a lack of pride and respect. Short (term) interest?

America, please be proud of what you are achieving.

FWIW.
 
I can understand that people reading this thread and posting daily get buggered off by constant trolling by shorts, but that's what the report to mod button is for. To be honest the quality at TMC has deteriorated from the longs side. The retorts of go and die etc are not something I (as a long) want to read. I come to the investors discussion forum to read the latest minutia about TSLA as well as analyses and debates on the facts and rumours that have surfaced as well as debates on future predictions.

Those all could use the opposing side as well and while we know that many of the bear arguments are flawed inherently and therefore their arguments might be confusing and look like trolling (and often times are trolling), then the response from longs should be facts based and not down to mudslinging. If someone is truly trolling and harrassing, then report to mods and he'll get moderated or banned.

There is a saying that "Never let idiots draw you down to their level as they'll beat you then with experience".

More common sense and calm please. I really don't want to read 4-5 pages of trolling and arguing and harrassments by longs towards shorts. There are a few shorts that bring decent points and counter arguments and the hatred that spews towards them angers them as well and makes them retort back getting them banned or muted. This beats the whole purpose of the investors analysis part where different counterpoints are discussed.

The long position is simple:

1) Tesla has made long term investments using workers who are motivated by purpose rather than job security.

2) The direction of these investments is fundamentally sound.

3) Customer focus (purity of purpose) is enhanced because there is no self serving dealer network distorting the product to emphasize dependance on them.

The Porsche Audi race teams can field a good race car, but don't know that they can get the product definition right on a consumer vehicle.

Two examples are:

1) The "all in" EV dedicated architecture of the Tesla family of vehicles and
2) Size of the pass through between the trunk and the back seat on there Model 3. The size of that passthrough defines the ceiling of utility for a sedan. Everyone else begs off, or the design functions are so split you can't get that part right without unresolvable arguments between engineers with differing metrics.

As long as customers have choice, Tesla will be OK.
 
Another FUD
Here's why Tesla's Model 3 may face declining demand, despite Elon Musk's claims
Next 6-7 days will be interesting. Bears are desperate to drive down price. They did this just before Q1 end with series of negative articles. This is there last chance before stock takes off. Because all the data is suggesting production problem is behind us.

I have some dry powder will be going all in if stock price drops below 300.
 
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I am looking at this from a relative distance from Europe. Very happy S85D driver, Model 3 reserved.
Have no Tesla stocks or derivatives.

I do see Tesla as the company that is best positioned to reap the benefits of the fact that the sun rises every day.
With solar power generation, storage, distribution (superchargers), electric vehicles, autonomous technology all in one chain. And with a major technological and economical lead in each of the shackles in that chain. With an energy transition ahead of us that is largely solar and battery constrained.

Tesla: A current and future gem I would think.

And it does really baffle me why the USA in general is treating this gem with such a lack of pride and respect. Short (term) interest?

America, please be proud of what you are achieving.

FWIW.


That's because of 2 things :
- Tesla doesn't really fit in the traditional American culture (proud of owning big polluting cars)
- Tesla, on an American scale, is still a small company. This will start to change next year.
 
There’s a distinction between Tesla customer vs TSLA investor surely.

I am the latter and hope to one day also be the former. But this has truly become a useless investment thread if all that can be said to anyone with a dissenting view to the bull case is to “go away and die”
If it's repetitive useless nonsense that's the appropriate response. A dissenting opinion has no inherent value just because it's dissenting. We have enough balanced longs to allow rational balanced discussion, we always have, long before the hoards of bears ever found us. The level of discussion has not been elevated by the influx of concern trolls, care bears, and fudsters. Most of us go elsewhere for our dose of fud, it's not hard to find.
 
Honda Clarity wins 2018 Green Car of the Year Award. Not sure if this is just a Canadian rating or other. Wow, here is a car that goes 46 mi. on electric charge before a gas engine kicks in. Meanwhile my M3 gets 310 mi. with never a thought to gas or engine. Not sure who determines the votes, but they should think about changing the name of the Award.
Video below, starts at 2:15min mark.
video
 
Another FUD
Here's why Tesla's Model 3 may face declining demand, despite Elon Musk's claims
Next 6-7 days will be interesting. Bears are desperate to drive down price. They did this just before Q1 end with series of negative articles. This is there last chance before stock takes off. Because all the data is suggesting production problem is behind us.
Be careful with that line of thinking. While it could be true, it has incorrectly been said many times before. TSLA shorts are a very determined bunch who will likely not be going away anytime soon. These are hedge funds with quite a lot of capital to deploy. IF Tesla is able to have several upcoming profitable quarters and then becomes part of the S&P, that will be a really tough blow for shorts to deal with. However, I think it is very unlikely that this is the last chance shorts have to negatively impact the stock before it takes off. TSLA is going to continue to be a bloody battleground with a LOT of volatility. The key for investors right now is to be patient.
 
Be careful with that line of thinking. While it could be true, it has incorrectly been said many times before. TSLA shorts are a very determined bunch who will likely not be going away anytime soon. These are hedge funds with quite a lot of capital to deploy. IF Tesla is able to have several upcoming profitable quarters and then becomes part of the S&P, that will be a really tough blow for shorts to deal with. However, I think it is very unlikely that this is the last chance shorts have to negatively impact the stock before it takes off. TSLA is going to continue to be a bloody battleground with a LOT of volatility. The key for investors right now is to be patient.
yes, but take heart, since the "Speigel bottom" of 11/30/2016, around 160 - 180 million shares have been traded at higher prices than lower ones, which should indicate accumulation vs distribution, flattening a bit last 3 months, but upwards. the A/D line. (will the stock ever split?, bringing in more folks? (i had a buddy who refused to buy @$70/share as 'too pricey' way back when)


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Is there really any truth to the continued notion that there are so called "market makers" who can actually (substantially) influence a stock's price?
*sigh* yes, there is. These are *options* market makers. They are essentially translating bets in the options market (by other people) into bets in the stock market (by the market maker). Does this help explain?
 
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I’m a professional HFT trader. This book is complete BS. Michael Lewis was manipulated by the IEX founder to market his exchange.

Professional HFTs do not manipulate the market, we are highly quantitative and generally take small positions. The manipulators are manual traders trading on screens. I know the two most famous ones by name, as they are part of the lore of the industry (search Igor of 3red).

HFT front-running is *documented*. If you weren't one of the front-runners, that's great, but the front-running shops have been a huge part of the market, and if you don't know about it, you should.
 
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Nearly everyone trades electronically, so the difference between an HFT and any given participant is trading frequency as the name suggests. We make fractions of a tick many many times a day using statistical forecasting. This algorithm can’t be abused to manipulate because it contains no abusive action.

OK, so the illegal front-running operations were using statistical forecasting based on data from end-user customer order flow which has not executed yet. They are then executing ahead of the customers who they have the data on.

To be clear about this: *That is illegal*. But they've gotten away with it.

If your statistical forecasting only uses data from orders which have executed, then, sure, your operation is legit.

But if it's using data from unexecuted orders and then running orders ahead of them, it's illegal front-running. It's been documented to happen repeatedly but the SEC hasn't done anything about it.

Spoofers are another form of manipulation, of course.

Manipulative actions themselves generally have negative expected value but money can be recouped in correlated markets or with hidden liquidity. Spoofers hide orders on the ask then send huge quotes to the bid, once filled they then reverse. Funnily enough, HFTs are generally the victims of such manuevers and complain to authorities. Occasionally the manipulators spoofed orders do get filled and they take huge losses. Spoofing generally happens during quiet periods during the day for this reason. Manipulation can not be done as frequently as one pleases, there is significant risk.

Manual traders taking manipulative actions will often have software that initiates their ploy. Using software to trade quickly does not make one a HFT.
 
Yeah, that book didn’t quite work for me while I was reading it. It seemed that something wasn’t quite right. Even if the book were true, it would mean orders might get screwed out of 0.1% best price or something like that. Big whoop.
That is basically what the front-running operations do. They screw people out of 0.1% of the best price or something like that. It adds up over time.
 
HFT front-running is *documented*. If you weren't one of the front-runners, that's great, but the front-running shops are a huge part of the market, and if you don't know about it, you should.
This guy thinks HFT reduces the spread but doesn't influence the underlying price retail investors have access to. What a joke.

Just make a 0.01% transaction fee into the law and watch HFT ers crawl back into the sewers.
 
If it's repetitive useless nonsense that's the appropriate response. A dissenting opinion has no inherent value just because it's dissenting. We have enough balanced longs to allow rational balanced discussion, we always have, long before the hoards of bears ever found us.
Yeah. Schonelucht, brian, luvb2b have all made rational pessimistic comments. So have I.

The level of discussion has not been elevated by the influx of concern trolls, care bears, and fudsters. Most of us go elsewhere for our dose of fud, it's not hard to find.
I'd like to have some serious swing traders (who go long and short to capture the swings) here; they might be able to give some real information. Haven't seen any except jesselivenomore, though.
 
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