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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I’m a professional HFT trader. This book is complete BS. Michael Lewis was manipulated by the IEX founder to market his exchange.

Professional HFTs do not manipulate the market, we are highly quantitative and generally take small positions. The manipulators are manual traders trading on screens. I know the two most famous ones by name, as they are part of the lore of the industry (search Igor of 3red).

We bring the bid/ask spread down to minimal levels and are a net benefit for retail investors, but much like Tesla, we have disrupted incumbents who seek to publicly deride us for their own benefit.

Yeah, that book didn’t quite work for me while I was reading it. It seemed that something wasn’t quite right. Even if the book were true, it would mean orders might get screwed out of 0.1% best price or something like that. Big whoop.

Out of curiosity, do HFTs pay commissions for trading, or do they negotiate a bulk rate, or something else?
 
So I'm short, but please, please, please consider what Munro says.

Munro is a report on variable costs: suppliers + labor.

It is NOT a report on "gross margin" (which includes overhead, logistics costs, and inventory costs).

Quite right. But are you really arguing that a startup has higher overhead costs than a legacy automaker?
 
So this just changed my view about Business Insider. Two articles from Matthew DeBord at Business Insider in the last 24 hours:

A Tsunami of money could be headed Tesla's way in the next year — and that’s bad news for the bears

Thousands of Tesla Model 3 cars are sitting in giant parking lots in California — here's why

Overall, his coverage has been quite reasonable and balanced. Clearly a car guy and knowledgeable about the industry. Not a Tesla cheerleader/fanboy by any means, but isn’t spreading FUD like others.

Matthew DeBord

Now, compare his headlines to Lopez’s...

Linette Lopez

I guess the moral of the story is there’s good apples and bad apples at every organization. ;)
"Changed your view?" Really? So all it takes is a few fluff pieces and your opinion is turned around?

The reality is that the Fourth Estate looks out for itself and no one else. They don't care about you and I assure you they don't care one way or the other about who or what they write about. They are in it for themselves. In this era of extreme media fragmentation, the endless battle to get eyeballs and clicks and ad revenue makes everyone a mercenary. If they think negative articles get revenue, they do negative ones. If they think positive articles get revenue, they get positive ones.

Never trust the Fourth Estate. They are not your friends. They will turn on you in an instant if it suits them. An alliance of convenience is not friendship and never will be.
 
You are correct. That problem hits them in January, when the credits expire<==AN EGREGIOUS EXAMPLE OF THE MODERATOR’S COMMENTS THAT FOLLOW. The current problem is burning through the reservations. Demand should be strong with the loss of tax credit looming. This "necessitated" a Musk Demand Tweet during the "quiet period". It appears the market does not believe...
MODERATOR: ALL TAKE NOTE:

THIS IS NOT TWITTER. AND THAT MEANS -

1. EASILY ASCERTAINED FACTS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE TWISTED, REFUTED OR OTHERWISE TRAMPLED UPON.

2. POSTERS WHO SPECIFICALLY HAVE BEEN CORRECTED OF WHAT GRACIOUSLY MAY BE CALLED THEIR MISUNDERSTANDINGS, YET THEREAFTER RE-POST THEM, WILL BE TREATED WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE.

3. ANY POSTER WHO CAUSES MODERATORS UNDUE WORK ALSO WILL BE CONSIDERED A PUBLIC NUISANCE, AND WILL BE LIKEWISE ELIMINATED.
 
Seems to have gone quiet, so can I ask a question? Does anyone have a grasp on the economics of power walls all the way thro' to large installations. Whilst everyone worries (seems forever by now). About 5000 +~- 1 per week nobody seems worried as to what's happening either profit wise or if there are enough battery cells to go round. Putting batteries in steel boxes sounds like a good earner to me. Any experts out there?
 
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HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Tesla killer finally found !

upload_2018-7-21_14-29-23.jpeg


Stops any car. Dead in its tracks.
 
MODERATOR: ALL TAKE NOTE:

THIS IS NOT TWITTER. AND THAT MEANS -

1. EASILY ASCERTAINED FACTS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE TWISTED, REFUTED OR OTHERWISE TRAMPLED UPON.

2. POSTERS WHO SPECIFICALLY HAVE BEEN CORRECTED OF WHAT GRACIOUSLY MAY BE CALLED THEIR MISUNDERSTANDINGS, YET THEREAFTER RE-POST THEM, WILL BE TREATED WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE.

3. ANY POSTER WHO CAUSES MODERATORS UNDUE WORK ALSO WILL BE CONSIDERED PUBLIC NUISANCES, AND WILL BE LIKEWISE ELIMINATED.
thank you mod!!
 
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"Changed your view?" Really? So all it takes is a few fluff pieces and your opinion is turned around?

Look at the author links in my post. It’s more than a few fluff pieces. I’m talking about the trends. I agree that Business Insider is only looking out for themselves (clicks, revenue) but within that context I’m just saying that there’s at least one writer that isn’t making stuff up like Linette Lopez (i.e. someone that isn’t in Jim Chanos’ pocket).
 
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If you’re against Tesla’s, I feel like you shouldn’t be in a Tesla Motors Club. Pls go start a Tesla investments shorting club or die instead. Thx
I’m torn on this. On the one hand: ya, this is a Tesla enthusiast forum. Kinda a weird place to be for someone who hates them.

On the other hand, some exposure to people with apparently genuine opposing views is beneficial, even if it does raise our blood pressure sometimes.
 
You're so right. I'm now enlightened, I'm going to take Brinkmans advice, sell TSLA and buy GM and Ford. You can find me over at the GM motors club site if you need me.

Bragging on TSLA as a great investment? You can only do that if you are unaware of the NASDAQ composite.

Ford shares have been so lackluster for so long that betting on the new CEO might be a good idea.
 
Yeah, that book didn’t quite work for me while I was reading it. It seemed that something wasn’t quite right. Even if the book were true, it would mean orders might get screwed out of 0.1% best price or something like that. Big whoop.

Out of curiosity, do HFTs pay commissions for trading, or do they negotiate a bulk rate, or something else?
We pay commissions. Most exchanges publish their fee schedules publicly, and they contain rebates for hitting total monthly volume numbers. So if you trade say 50000 futures contract a month, he exchange may charge .15 for the volume from 40000-50000, but .19 for 1-40000.

The reason Michael Lewis was unable to talk to any real HFTs is that most of them want to keep the names of their personnel secret, due to poaching, and just being secretive in general. Our IP is our lifeblood, it is relatively easy to copy a strategy and steal half the revenue of the original strategy.
 
some exposure to people with apparently genuine opposing views is beneficial,
“genuine opposing views” is not enough for me. I have no doubt that Montana genuinely doesn’t like Tesla. I also believe that most of the detractors on TMC also genuinely view Tesla as a net negative.
My problem with most of them is that they are not contributing information or insight, nor are they seeking information or insight. As such, they waste my time. I have chosen to put most of the TMC Tesla detractors on the ignore list.
 
MODERATOR: ALL TAKE NOTE:

THIS IS NOT TWITTER. AND THAT MEANS -

1. EASILY ASCERTAINED FACTS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE TWISTED, REFUTED OR OTHERWISE TRAMPLED UPON.

2. POSTERS WHO SPECIFICALLY HAVE BEEN CORRECTED OF WHAT GRACIOUSLY MAY BE CALLED THEIR MISUNDERSTANDINGS, YET THEREAFTER RE-POST THEM, WILL BE TREATED WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE.

3. ANY POSTER WHO CAUSES MODERATORS UNDUE WORK ALSO WILL BE CONSIDERED PUBLIC NUISANCES, AND WILL BE LIKEWISE ELIMINATED.
Mod: let me add to this. But not in Lavender, because that's too hard on the eyes for a long posting. Nevertheless, this whole posting is official sub-moderator comment. --ggr

Without naming names specifically, there are a number of posters recently who have all committed the same sin. That is to post something factually incorrect when they should have known better. I, who have better connectivity than Audie, usually get to them first. I warn them a couple of times. Then I send a warning saying "this is your last warning before moderation." Then, almost universally, they go on moderation for a while. (Sometimes they even then complain that they weren't warned... guess what, guys, we have logs... must have learned from Tesla. Read your messages.)

Once someone is on moderation, the rules for their postings get somewhat tougher. For one thing, a posting saying essentially "Yeah, well, that guy doesn't know what he's talking about" (despite the fact that the subject's entire well-respected and well-remunerated career seems to imply that he does) won't get posted. One liners like "I can choose what to believe" or "you don't know what you're talking about" won't get posted. Postings that point to fake twitter accounts won't get through and certainly count as deliberate misinformation. Sometimes we will judge even an innocently worded posting asking a question for clarification, when the question has been answered many times before, to be unworthy. We've had people admit to not reading older postings before repeating discredited information. These behaviors contribute to me classifying such posts as trolling. Trolling is not tolerated.

Now, funnily enough, we are humans, and in my case I even have a full time job again, so just because a posting hasn't appeared, doesn't mean it never will. A non-abusive posting making a valid argument, with attribution/links where needed, will be approved as soon as I/we get to it. One last thing though, that Audie alluded to above, is that posting the same content again, fifteen minutes after the first attempt, will pretty much guarantee that the moderator will be additionally displeased. It's particularly irksome when the posting wouldn't have made it through anyway because of one of the above trolling behaviors.

Note that there are times when I also warn "non-trolls". We must keep dulce et decorum in this forum, so no insults of other members, even when we really really want to. We mods are equal opportunity when it comes to moving posts to snippy heaven.

We often have situations where real disagreements can arise. That's fine, we can discuss them collegially. If the discussion seems to go on too long, and assuming it started in the general or market action threads, we might move it to a separate thread. That's hard work for the moderators, but it's the kind of work we like. But that still isn't license to start getting snippy, or even just repetitive.

"I say this."
"No, I say that."
"Let me reiterate, I said this!"
...

Let's all (and I very much include myself, here) engage brains before keyboards, and pause for a few breaths before posting. Light banter is fine, and breaks up the reading. Anything substantial should be clear, well reasoned, supported by facts where appropriate, and not argumentative. Again, "non-trolls" often post things that don't meet this standard, but hey, they haven't committed the sins to get them into moderation. This is a cooperative forum, not a debating competition.

Moderation is temporary, and bear in mind it increases our workload, so we actually prefer not to put people into moderation in the first place. A temporary ban is easier for us, so repeating what was done to get there in the first place usually results in a temporary ban. Creating sock puppet accounts to get around moderation or bans is one thing that will get a person instantly and permanently banned.

"I have a little list, of people who won't be missed" -- misquoted from the Mikado, Gilbert and Sullivan.

I hope this is clear guidance for all.
 
It should also be reasonable to think that a forum named www. teslamotorsclub .com would be a place where enthusiasts go, and haters do not.

I for one do not go over to the Honda Civic Owners forums and post crappy things. (in part because I used to own one)

But imagine a Subaru driver visiting Buick forums and taking issue with the stuff that was posted there. Doesn't make sense.

If you do not like Tesla, or want the company to fail, what are you posting here for? It won't work.
 
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