TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

I don't know for certain, but every time I've watched options during a merger or buyout deal, the spreads have blown out as soon as the merger was announced; the pricing slowly regrouped to be based around the merger offer price and probability of merger vs. higher bid vs. fall through; and the liquidity just slowly dried up.

Thanks bud! Really appreciate your insight
I will be watching call option volumes very single minute for the next several days to weeks

 

[TrendTrader007]

you mean calls above 420 are a long shot, right?

I’m so sorry ! Yes you’re right!
I’ve had a really long day
I had a super busy clinic full of patients plus on top of that I had to deal with all this drama!
Thanks for the correction

 

[Lhan]

In a similar position here. Just fired off an e-mail to by bank to ask if there are solutions to this.

I'm with Nordnet, have sent a note to customer support for info, will report back.

 

[jhm]

you mean calls above 420 are a long shot, right?

Let's see if you were a short nervous about a short squeeze, you might buy a call option just so you'll have the option of closing at strike price.

I've got a call option at strike $360. I'm looking to sell to a motivated buyer.

 

[ZachShahan]

But all positions over 5% have to be disclosed don't they? So it would be pretty obvious if a 10% holder of TSLA disappeared from one reporting period to the next...

Sorry, this was before IPO.

 

[jhm]

Sadly, it doesn't matter; I might need the money before 2028 and I don't trust the liquidity events. I'll have to sell part of my stake if the liquidity drops. I'll keep what I can while preserving my liquidity, though.

Yes, that's the tradeoff less liquidity for less short dilution.

 

[mongo]

I'm not so concerned about what traders do. They certainly will not want in on the private shares.

But for investors, consider this your last call to own Tesla for the next ten years or more. If Tesla stock were not getting constantly abused by shorts and other traders, what do you think it would be worth. In BFPT we have three longterm targets for 2028, Nominal $3250, Sport $5250, and Insane $7250. Suppose you believe that without impedance by shorts Insane is a fair bet. What would you be willing to pay today for the Insane $7250 in 2028. At a 30% discount, $525 is a good price. At 25% discount, $778 is a fair price. Or at 20%, $1171. The thing is, we've been so beaten down in this market that the best strategy has been to accumulate whenever the stock is beaten down. But going private means we're going to need put a serious value on the longterm opportunity before Tesla. We get one last good chance to get into this private fund. So what's it worth? A mere $420? What would you reinvest that $420 in that would be just as good as a private share in Tesla?

Agree, I'm just thinking that will happen before the spike.

 

[tinm]

Just finished setting up new good-til-cancel sell orders for all my TSLA stock. A tiny portion rigged to go at $550 (pay off the margin) and should the epic historic squeeze come to pass, the rest of the stock is rigged to go off in various tranches starting the mid $1000s thru mid $3000s. I mean, hey, like, just in case. You never know.

 

[Boomer19]

Let's see if you were a short nervous about a short squeeze, you might buy a call option just so you'll have the option of closing at strike price.

I've got a call option at strike $360. I'm looking to sell to a motivated buyer.

true. don’t sell it for less than 60. hopefully you can get the high end range of ~150 if the 500+ sp scenario you posted earlier plays out
all mine are below 400 too

 

[jw934]

My speculation on why Elon rushed out the tweet:
SP closed Monday at $341.99. Hence the $420 offer today is 22.8% above Monday's close.
Prior to the tweet, SP already reached $359.44 due to the Saudi news.
If it closed at $359.44 and Elon announced tomorrow then the offer is only 16.8% above the previous close.
Worse, if Tuesday closed higher, e.g. $365, then the offer would only be 15% above the previous close.
To make the deal look good, Elon needed to announce the plan right away instead of the next day.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Could be the beginning of an umbrella corporation. He has enough companies...

Tesla Motors
Tesla Energy
SpaceX
The Boring Company

Future assets:
Hyperloop
Neuralink
Starlink

I would happily invest in Elon Co.

Though technically Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy are just Tesla, and at least for now Starlink is part of SpaceX, and presumably Hyperloop (as an Elon thing versus Hyperloop One or other ventures) would be part of TBC...

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The following is PURE SPECULATION

Mr Musk’s letter mentioned the company is attempting to establish a fund so that extant investors who wish to retain their holdings will be able to do so.

My immediate supposition is that it may be structured so that non-accredited investors CAN hold positions in the fund. The fund, of course, will have exactly one entity within its portfolio*


*(or maybe also, eventually, TEnergy or Starlink or BoringCo or.....?????.....)

He did go out of his way to specify they are NOT merging with SpaceX. So perhaps something about the structure would have triggered such questions ...

 

[erthquake]

Just finished setting up new good-til-cancel sell orders for all my TSLA stock. A tiny portion rigged to go at $550 (pay off the margin) and should the epic historic squeeze come to pass, the rest of the stock is rigged to go off in various tranches starting the mid $1000s thru mid $3000s. I mean, hey, like, just in case. You never know.

I'm doing the same with about 10% of my shares from ~$550 - $1250.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Newspapers were saying it might be an Elon Marijuana joke.

420 and all

Just shows a sense of humor.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Yes. And it's actually scary for those of us only smart enough to see what happened after it happened, and sort of realize just how much thinking and work FOR MONTHS (or years) went into what just happened.

That moment when you think he's been playing regular chess, only to realize he's been playing 4D chess instead...

 

[EinSV]

@AudubonB what have you to say about TSLA being offered at $377 (AH) with Elon saying he has investors lined up to buy at $420?

 

[ZachShahan]

Yes. And it's actually scary for those of us only smart enough to see what happened after it happened, and sort of realize just how much thinking and work FOR MONTHS (or years) went into what just happened.

Humbling

 

[erthquake]

If this ends up wiping out the shorts, how am I gonna get my daily update on the Lathrop lot?!

 

[AudubonB]

I hope his promise to let us small fish stay in when he goes private is able to stand. I'm not an accredited investor. I'm not supposed to be allowed to own private equity. My intent is to allow all of my shares to convert, so let's see what happens.

For me, this isn't the beginning of the end. It's the end of the beginning. Sure would be nice if all of us retail minnows can keep swimming with the whales in the private ocean.

The following is PURE SPECULATION

Mr Musk’s letter mentioned the company is attempting to establish a fund so that extant investors who wish to retain their holdings will be able to do so.

My immediate supposition is that it may be structured so that non-accredited investors CAN hold positions in the fund. The fund, of course, will have exactly one entity within its portfolio*


*(or maybe also, eventually, TEnergy or Starlink or BoringCo or.....?????.....)

 

[LytHka]

I would happily invest in Elon Co.

Though technically Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy are just Tesla, and at least for now Starlink is part of SpaceX, and presumably Hyperloop (as an Elon thing versus Hyperloop One or other ventures) would be part of TBC...

All true but I imagine if he did create some sort of holding company like Alphabet he would split out the functional parts of his businesses into separate entities for accounting and organizational purposes similar to how Samsung and other large conglomerates operate.

For example, SpaceX has a specific mission while Starlink's mission is to provide cheap broadband to the entire planet(s), but they could still freely leverage the capabilities of all the constituent parts of Elon Co.

Sorry if this is TOO speculative for this thread...