TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

There must be a ton of calls from the big players all asking who knows who is in.
If the intent was to freeze wall street out with a small set of people or foreign money then that would explain the hesitation in the market.

 

[Starno]

Personally, the advantage of Tesla going private is less volatility : except a large intrinsic issue, every 6 months you'll be assured to have the market value of Tesla to rise.

The disadvantage is that I won't be able to benefit from market stupidity as often as I would like when I want to increase my position.

 

[Boomer19]

Well, I was talking a true squeeze as in running-out-of-shares, not just a short-covering rally.

If all of us who lent shares out asked for our shares back yesterday, they would be likely to not be all returned until Friday.

Even for a short-covering rally it can take some time. I read somewhere that margin calls go out (a) after market close, and (b) at noon, and *usually* the broker gives the short-sellers some time to wire in more money.

i asked for mine back, albeit peanuts in the big picture. but i did so in case i needed them in my possession on record date (segged by my broker as fully paid in electronic custody account) in the event that the record date holders vote counts for something more than just yes or no (meaning you need r/d position to be eligible for something, private shares rather than cash, who knows).

bottom line, i know if simple yes or no, my shares mean nothing. but if having them in my possession entitled me to something other than ya/nay, i want to be in control of that.

 

[mongo]

OT, but I was waiting for the closing line that rhymes, as this really does read like a Dr. Seuss story (I mean this as a compliment).

I almost did, but I've been warned such things are frowned upon in this here forum.

 

[TintDepot.com]

Yes, caught very much off guard with this.

I have to admit Elon caught me off guard both times. The Q2 results/ SP take off (I though I had time till Q3 to buy in) and today. I was considering expanding my position after selling more index funds and now this. Takes until next day for funds proceeds to settle. Watching action and biting my elbows... Lets see if I can catch the last carriage of the train tomorrow.

 

[Boomer19]

or not...




With conversion to private, those investors that want to stay in already have their position/stock paid for, and not at $420.

i agree, with the little we know now, it’s still evident to me that $420 is not enough

some of media/street isn’t seeing it that way yet.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Seeing all the action this morning I can't help but wonder if the institutional bears would be so aggressive in their position and denial if they were actually losing their own money instead of their clients'. Losing a billion a day isn't quite as painful I guess if you aren't writing the check.

Dan

 

[TintDepot.com]

Do we know yet who the private investors are that want to pay $420 /share to take Tesla private?

 

[bhtooefr]

This market action is even more confusing than regular Tesla market action. Unless EM is crazy (he isn't) or a fool (he isn't) then the floor is $420. How anyone believes it is less is really, really confusing to me.

There's a very, very narrow window in which Elon can be non-crazy, non-foolish, yet the floor not be $420.

Basically, the narrative would go something like this:

1. The shorts successfully keep TSLA under $420 the usual way, even in the face of people buying. (Difficult, but FUD is strong.)
2. Somehow, the shorts hang on and keep the price below $420 through people recalling their shares in preparation for a vote. (This is where I think the narrative falls over.)
3. The vote is no. (As has been discussed extensively in this and other threads, there's reasons why this could actually happen!)

All three of those things have to happen for the shorts to not get burned. If the first doesn't happen, they get burned by margin calls. If the second doesn't happen, they get burned by recalls. If the third doesn't happen, they get burned by recalls even harder.

 

[larmor]

Well there is a potential 30 to 60 point profit, so it behooves institutional Bears bulls and everyone in general to put as much fud out as possible in order to keep the entry price low and lock in basically free money....

 

[phil0909]

Do we know yet who the private investors are that want to pay $420 /share to take Tesla private?

No. But I am curious!

 

[Boomer19]

So basically the conversion rate is proportional to the change in market cap (+ cashout). So if this is considered a tender offer, then if the stock is trading below the tender offer price immediately before the stock is purchased away, the convertible holders will get more stock to reflect the arbitrage gap.

yeah, i don’t see how it won’t be some type of voluntary exchange offer, right? this would be the only way to separate eligible from ineligible entities (to hold private shares).


unless we’re underestimating the amount of time/work go into vetting holders taking the private share choice.

they may be forced to spin off a non-tradable holding company and then cash out non-eligible and let the eligible choose cash/private stock.
this could take months. usually mergers do...and this isn’t a merger (yet) but this seems trickier than a normal exchange offer

i have a feeling they’ll be forced to allow only accredited investors and QIBS

this would identify quickly those who are getting cashed out from those who can choose private shares. and then the exchange offer route would be efficient

 

[Lhan]

Did TMC go down for a bit...I was without my addiction for almost 10 Minutes!

It got hacked by a 42 year old pot head.

 

[shortburn]

Anyone else find it ironic that shorts and media are saying Musk can't get/couldn't have gotten/doesn't have funding to do this, when previously they claimed that the only thing he was good at was raising money.

 

[Ugliest1]

For those in Canada, I haven’t heard back from TDCT yet (might take a while...), but there’s this:

Holding shares in a private Tesla outside the US

 

[Moderatefan]

Yes, caught very much off guard with this.

Well, it turned out for the best anyway.
Loaded up @374 8am in pre-market vs 380+ yesterday.
But the Q2 call was a disappointment
I bought with half available money @292 and was getting ready to buy cheaper after the call, but once I read the letter I realized I'm screwed
and had to buy @315 on the rising curve.
I now have close to 50% of retirement money in TSLA after today. Still wondering if broker will force me to sell(they had no info yesterday) or I can convert to private.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., the shortable shares pool on IB has increased to 450,000 shares, up from 250,000 earlier in the day, so a certain amount of short covering appears to be going on.

 

[Revhappy2]

Deep out of money Put premiums have actually increased. Why not just sell these PUTs?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Anyone else find it ironic that shorts and media are saying Musk can't get/couldn't have gotten/doesn't have funding to do this, when previously they claimed that the only thing he was good at was raising money.

He is good at raising money. But persuading people to lose $70 billion is a different league from persuading people to lose $9 billion.

 

[bro1999]

I'm very surprised it has not marched to 420. Is investor confidence shaky a vote to privatize would pass? Or dubious about the "secured funding"? Or both?