TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Evoforce]

The bank's delay will get you in at a better price..

You were right!

 

[tivoboy]

A lot of hate here, no need. It's really simple...

1. Elon has a plan, he is smart, has lawers, the board approved it, and the method of announcing (tweet) was legal according to most authorities (notice the stories to the contrary are are "alleged").

Do we know that the board "approved" the deal, or did they approve to discussing and pursuing a possible deal?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I have been a long-term bear, but I can't believe Musk is actually lying about the funding being secured and only the shareholder vote being necessary. I went long calls today at $357.50

 

[The Blue Owl]

I have been a long-term bear, but I can't believe Musk is actually lying about the funding being secured and only the shareholder vote being necessary. I went long calls today at $357.50

What expiry date?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

What expiry date?

9/07

 

[Ulmo]

Would you be certain if you had no coffee available, but had a verbal agreement with an acquaintance that he would deliver coffee to you before noon?

More to the point, would you issue a SEC-regulated communication that your morning coffee was "certain", if billions of dollars of investor money depended on the coffee?

This is why investor communications tend to come on Forms 8-K, with appropriate disclaimers regarding contingent events. So there is no misunderstanding that might hurt your stockholders.

I think my example even fits your tighter requirements: Let's say someone else was CEO of Apple, say, let me think of someone random ... Donald Trump. Ok, and he offers to Elon, hey, I'll invest in your company, it's certain, and I'll even write you the check for it right here, here, now it's yours, the money is in the bank, everything is fine. But then, all of a sudden, one of Elon's employees invents a tiny safe battery that is 1/100th the price of existing batteries, has all of the magical properties (high density, fast charge and discharge, doesn't readily catch fire), and is easy to start making in quantity 100x what the gigafactory does, Elon puts it in all his new cars and offers it as a retrofit at reasonable price to all old cars, tests confirm it's real, news of this gets out, and the SP goes to $1,978.36 that evening. Well, now, Donald Trump's $80,000,000,000.00 check that Elon already despited into his investment buying money pocket is just sitting there feeling too small. Elon could ask Donald for another $177,000,000,000.00 and change, but at that moment while they are calling each other and getting busy signals (why don't phones connect while you're calling each other? Those awful phone people were always non-innovative), at that moment, Elon would still have his certainty kind of ... complexified for a moment while he decomplexifies it. To me, that is OK. It's even more extreme than what would normally be OK.

 

[mekberg]

I have been a long-term bear

Curious, have you driven a P Model S before?

I had been a casual fanboy of Tesla since the roadster days. I sort of figured Tesla would continue to be a niche manufacturer - until I drove a P85+. It hit me. That's when I knew ICE's days were numbered along with the whole dealer/manufacturer/service model.

 

[theschnell]

9/07

Been thinking of doing the same myself, but have not yet pulled the trigger. Do you think 9/7 is far enough out? Knowing Tesla time, I'm thinking about going a little bit further out.

 

[Reality]

I have been a long-term bear, but I can't believe Musk is actually lying about the funding being secured and only the shareholder vote being necessary. I went long calls today at $357.50

as a hedge or did you close out?

 

[Moderatefan]

I mean I think shorting stock is immoral, but lending shares to shorts to sell right now, that's freakin' evil

~700k shares shorted this morning
34.7m vs 34m yesterday
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

I have been a long-term bear, but I can't believe Musk is actually lying about the funding being secured and only the shareholder vote being necessary. I went long calls today at $357.50

Woah, Sunbird, well done!

 

[Jayjs20]

9/07

Do we have any insight on how long this will take? I didn't think Jan19 was far out enough.

 

[mekberg]

~700k shares shorted this morning
34.7m vs 34m yesterday

When the elastic breaks it's going to be gnarly.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Been thinking of doing the same myself, but have not yet pulled the trigger. Do you think 9/7 is far enough out? Knowing Tesla time, I'm thinking about going a little bit further out.

I think Elon will have to reveal the funding source in the next few business days. That should be all that's needed.

 

[EngRyan]

I think Elon will have to reveal the funding source in the next few business days. That should be all that's needed.

Damnit, I told myself I wouldn't put anymore in, but if Sunbird is doing it!...

 

[Reality]

I havent trimmed at all, but Sunbird has me worried lol

 

[MilosK]

Somethings going to happen – the period of the SP pull back to the Bollinger middle (EDIT: 5 min candles) has been getting shorter and shorter till there’s not much room left to shrink st this point. The decline has to level off at this point or - wishful thinking - shoot back up!

 

[shootformoon]

The SP action, very sadly,slowly points to a $420 buy out. My logic is: $420 offer is 100% real barring special situation. The going private is not a question, only the price is. With this price action, $420 becomes more and more likely. In a sense, both shorts and leveraged longs are losers. Well, maybe shorts are not, because they really have a limited loss expectation now.

 

[phil0909]

I think my example even fits your tighter requirements: Let's say someone else was CEO of Apple, say, let me think of someone random ... Donald Trump. Ok, and he offers to Elon, hey, I'll invest in your company, it's certain, and I'll even write you the check for it right here, here, now it's yours, the money is in the bank, everything is fine. But then, all of a sudden, one of Elon's employees invents a tiny safe battery that is 1/100th the price of existing batteries, has all of the magical properties (high density, fast charge and discharge, doesn't readily catch fire), and is easy to start making in quantity 100x what the gigafactory does, Elon puts it in all his new cars and offers it as a retrofit at reasonable price to all old cars, tests confirm it's real, news of this gets out, and the SP goes to $1,978.36 that evening. Well, now, Donald Trump's $80,000,000,000.00 check that Elon already despited into his investment buying money pocket is just sitting there feeling too small. Elon could ask Donald for another $177,000,000,000.00 and change, but at that moment while they are calling each other and getting busy signals (why don't phones connect while you're calling each other? Those awful phone people were always non-innovative), at that moment, Elon would still have his certainty kind of ... complexified for a moment while he decomplexifies it. To me, that is OK. It's even more extreme than what would normally be OK.

So is $420 certain or uncertain???

I say it's certain (subject to the shareholder vote caveat Elon specified) only if there's a contract guaranteeing $420, that can be voted on, yes or no. Otherwise, it's an aspiration. Which is fine, but if it's aspirational, Tesla needs to promptly communicate that it's 'under discussion' rather than 'certain'. That's what honesty requires. And maybe the law requires it, too.

 

[Reality]

The SP action, very sadly,slowly points to a $420 buy out. My logic is: $420 offer is 100% real barring special situation. The going private is not a question, only the price is. With this price action, $420 becomes more and more likely. In a sense, both shorts and leveraged longs are losers. Well, maybe shorts are not, because they really have a limited loss expectation now.

would you mind expanding on your logic?