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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Whatever we may think here, I think the market is making it pretty clear that it doesn’t believe this deal is going to happen.

The idiots who are claiming that Musk is lying (he doesn't do that, guys) and selling the stock as if the buyout is nonexistent (oh, it's real) are confirming Musk's reasons to go private.

The downside of this is that it is going to make Musk even more determined to go private, *even if* securities law means he has to squeeze out the small investors. This sucks for small investors. He'll try to let us all stay in, but *he won't try too hard*, because he is going to be hellbent on getting off the stock market.

I really hope he just decides to delist the company without actually going "full private" (which would require cutting down to fewer than 2000 stockholders, etc.)
 
The idiots who are claiming that Musk is lying (he doesn't do that, guys) and selling the stock as if the buyout is nonexistent (oh, it's real) are confirming Musk's reasons to go private.

The downside of this is that it is going to make Musk even more determined to go private, *even if* securities law means he has to squeeze out the small investors. This sucks for small investors. He'll try to let us all stay in, but *he won't try too hard*, because he is going to be hellbent on getting off the stock market.

I really hope he just decides to delist the company without actually going "full private" (which would require cutting down to fewer than 2000 stockholders, etc.)

I think this is all part of Elon's plan. Let it stew a bit, keep quiet, get the SP down, let the new investors back-up the truck at a discount, less money needed on de-listing.
 
True, but only to the degree that you begin absorbing the float. Anyone who is looking to invest to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars knows that they will very quickly start paying more for each subsequent share they try to purchase from the open market. That's why a takeover offer like this has to be attractive enough to appease a majority of the current shareholders, and done all at once.
I only have a little knowledge of this, so I'm sure more experienced members will laugh and grumble at my description.

With the right slow consistent buying programs, they can fairly quietly buy the stock without causing spikes. Many of the big brokerages likely have programs like that that they offer to their big money customers precisely for that sort of reason. They also would use such low impact programs to sell stocks. The programs have settings, so if someone wants the stock price to receive more of an impact, they can do that. There's only so much the programs can do, though; buying pressure is buying pressure, and same for selling. If anything, I'm guessing the selling programs run slower. I bet they use a lot of selling of options in both directions. A simple example could be sell a weekly put at a strike +$10, start the buying program to target the SP $10 rise over 3 days, and then collect the new shares from the put buyers: let them pay for the stock rise after you already are going to own the shares at a lower price point AFTER your buying program to fill in the non-option obtained shares already ran to bring the price up. Of course, this sets off a bit of a mountain after you have your position. There must be buying programs to prevent that, too. I bet each one does it differently.

They can also go to dark markets, which are another great way to stop big movements from having erratic price movements. The problem there is that I'm sure there's a gossip ring about who is in the dark market, and that gets into a lot of money being made off of retail investors: some traders are ok with that, and some are not. Of course, if it's a dark movement, it may have no impact on stock price at all -- just a weird glitch at 4PM on the tape, or they could even mix tape placement throughout the day.

The word I see being used all the time for the above buying activity is "accumulate".

Or do you think they can't squeeze a $20 billion buy into Tesla's wild swings in price? All an accumulator woud have to do is help the shorts with their FUD campaign for a few months, and while the shorts do their coordinated attack at the end of every day, you can be right there on the other end, accumulating all the way. That fits how Tesla has traded for the last 3 months.
 
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Joe Terranova 30 sec ago on CNBC (transcript is paraphrased):

Today I bought $15k-worth Aug $365 calls. I believe there are questions about Musk's tweet veracity. He said "funding secured". He has 4 days to clarify it.

Q: Are you making a trade or a statement?

I'm making a statement. This can be resolved very easily in the Valley. His billionaire peers should be calling him right now to tell him "we support you in this, we're in". The market is now calling Musk's bluff. He has four days to file an 8-K. He has four days!

Q: Are you positioning yourself to join a class-action lawsuit?

Yes. I think he [Musk] is an untruthful individual.
we have to find the video on this
 
Joe Terranova 30 sec ago on CNBC (transcript is paraphrased):

Today I bought $15k-worth Aug $365 calls. I believe there are questions about Musk's tweet veracity. He said "funding secured". He has 4 days to clarify it.

Q: Are you making a trade or a statement?

I'm making a statement. This can be resolved very easily in the Valley. His billionaire peers should be calling him right now to tell him "we support you in this, we're in". The market is now calling Musk's bluff. He has four days to file an 8-K. He has four days!

Q: Are you positioning yourself to join a class-action lawsuit?

Yes. I think he [Musk] is an untruthful individual.
Hmmm ... don’t understand this. Why is he buying $365 calls if he thinks Elon is lying?
 
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Really? Anyways, still means nothing. The deal points are so complicated that a verbal commitment could only commit someone to good faith negotiations. Doesn’t mean the negotiations can’t fall apart.
Agree. And verbal contracts over certain amounts require a writing and still require an offer acceptance and consideration. One exception might be partial performance but I suspect you are correct for all states. BTW just bought another 100 sharges an considering more.
 
The ignorance and hatred on this forum about short selling is astounding.

I don't know that I hate short selling per se, but when some of the biggest short sellers go on Elon's Twitter just to troll him, calling him "fraud boy", making up stories of SEC investigations, slandering Elon personally, writing articles on SA that contain tons of errors or pure speculation to convince others to short sell, go on CNBC to spread their FUD, this results in a lot of confusion in the public sector. This confusion and FUD has caused a LOT of unfounded hatred for Musk and Tesla, which has certainly caused many people to not even consider buying a Tesla, which in turn hurts their sales and the stock price even more. That is market manipulation, IMO. Whatever my personal beliefs are in Musk or Tesla, I don't troll everyone who thinks differently, or troll their forums, resort to vicious name calling, or engage in any of the other horrible practices that I have seen in the past year or more by so-called "ANALysts".
 
Whatever we may think here, I think the market is making it pretty clear that it doesn’t believe this deal is going to happen.

Apparently you and most of us don't think the same. But I agree with you this time, the market believes that Elon Musk is a stupid liar.

You and I had a conversation some time ago where I pointed out that with central banks printing money and asset prices sky high, nowadays the world is full of money looking for growth, and they are not finding much. Well, we are seeing this factor at work now, but people are not believing it.

Today's market action should persuade many people that Tesla should go private. Truth does not matter anymore. It is who has the biggest mega phone. Except for a few true believers, the mass go with the flow, which is somehow the person who built a team to land rockets against all odds is a stupid liar in his last ditch effort to pump the stock before going to jail.

This is very sad in so many levels, not only we live in a post truth world, but more and more companies will stay private, shutting out the ordinary people, further widening the income inequality.
 
Wow, I go exploring Manuel Antonio National Park and fishing for Dorado in Costa Rica and all hell breaks loose! I finally caught up with this thread chronicling the events of the past few days. Thanks to all the amazing TMC contributors who have provided a fantastic blow-by-blow narrative with great insights and thoughts on the complexities of this chess move by EM.

Tesla, never a dull drive, TSLA, never a dull moment!
 
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Is the statement in the article that Tesla would need to go public again in order for outside investors (like us) to realize the gains correct? That would suck...

I think that referred to large principle investors. Do they want to own a company and get dividends or sell part of their portion and have beau coup bucks.
The SpaceX set up sounds like people can sell every 6 months and the company buys and absorbs the shares.
 
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I think that referred to large principle investors. Do they want to own a company and get dividends or sell part of their portion and have beau coup bucks.
The SpaceX set up sounds like people can sell every 6 months and the company buys and absorbs the shares.

Thanks Mongo, hope you are correct. I guess we'll find out in the neat future!
 
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