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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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To my understanding, Buffet only buys established companies. I remember that he has said, that he is not interested about “turnaround” companies.
Netjets turnaround (formally known as Executive Jet when Berkshire acquire it in 1998)

My gut says there is some buffet money backing the TSLAP. Buffet sees the YoY revenue growth Tesla has posted and will continue to post in coming years. This is just the start toward $200B YoY revenue by 2025.




my expected Revenue for 2018 is: 20B
my expected Revenue for 2019 is: 28B
 
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There’s one thing that I don’t understand very well if Elon really *did* most of the arrangements prior of the buyout announcement.

Is the fact that, as far as we know and some of them already mentioned, he didn’t previously got the agreement of other large shareholders (at least T. Rowe, Gifford, Tencent, etc) to move their stock privately.

This alone, would make things a lot clearer.
 
Mood on some topics is anyone's interpretation as far as stock price.

I just think he's demonstrating a good mood about this deal despite the insane FUD that has been exploding all week, and I do take that to mean that he and the board have made the progress he expected by now. Given how much "Tesla is going to be sued for this and Elon is going to jail" around, him getting on there and making relaxed jokes about shorts does imply to me that he thinks such claims are ridiculous and had a good week answering the SEC's questions.

We'll see.
Not an advice.
People really have to stop reading into his mood based on tweets. I would not make any investments based on how happy you perceive someone. If I had Elon Musk's life I'd be pretty happy no matter how much the lunatic trolls, nutjobs, liars, and shorts attacked me or if I miss a self-imposed deadline by a month or 6.
This IS an advise.

I'm long TSLA, I have a Signature Model X and married to the love of my life, so even though I'm not Elon Musk I'm pretty freaking happy. I just wish I had the time so I could actually read all this stuff.
 
Just speculation and guessing. It's a possibility so worth discussing.

The rules about buying stock in a privately held corporation are bizzare, but they are there for a reason, to protect the "investor." Say your brother-in-law has a small software company that was formed as a C class corporation and you want to purchase some stock in it to help him out and hopefully make some money when Google buys it. Unless you are an accredited investor, you are prohibited from taking an equity position. That's meant to protect the little guy from a financial flim-flam man (what a great movie!) taking advantage of you. The SEC(?) assumes that an AI has enough experience to know whether or not they're being taken for a ride.

I was the CEO and one of the founders of a SW spinoff from one of the national labs back in the '90's and we had a situation where an incubator fund, even though they had invested earlier as a partner with another AI, was prohibited from investing by themselves because they were not an AI. It was a learning experience and a difficult one, as they didn't believe they couldn't buy stock in us... they thought we didn't want to reduce our ownership in the company but that wasn't the case at all. We ended up getting the funds needed through a loan from them, but our working relationship was never the same afterwards.

Anyway, just thought I'd share to give a real life example of why you need to be an AI when investing in privately traded firms.
 
Just speculation and guessing. It's a possibility so worth discussing.
Whether it matters or not is speculation and guessing, since we don't know what structure for existing investors to stay in post-delisting. (Note that I have switched to saying "de-listing" rather than "going private".) However "accredited investor" is a real thing. You can't participate in IPOs or certain private offerings unless you're an accredited investor, which basically means (for individuals in the US):
  1. a natural person who has individual net worth, or joint net worth with the person's spouse, that exceeds $1 million at the time of the purchase, or has assets under management of $1 million or above, excluding the value of the individual's primary residence;[11][12]
  2. a natural person with income exceeding $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with a spouse exceeding $300,000 for those years and a reasonable expectation of the same income level in the current year;[13]
 
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People really have to stop reading into his mood based on tweets. I would not make any investments based on how happy you perceive someone. If I had Elon Musk's life I'd be pretty happy no matter how much the lunatic trolls, nutjobs, liars, and shorts attacked me or if I miss a self-imposed deadline by a month or 6.
This IS an advise.

I'm long TSLA, I have a Signature Model X and married to the love of my life, so even though I'm not Elon Musk I'm pretty freaking happy. I just wish I had the time so I could actually read all this stuff.

Note that Elon almost broke into tears a couple of times this year (unless I am blind or stupid). I think this stuff gets to him. And I think one can read when he is on the better side of a topic. But yeah, not advice and I'm not saying I'm definitely right.
 
I don't think buffet buys companies that are not already highly profitable. However he does have a lot of money to spend at the moment and has two new investment managers lined up for when he retires who have shown to invest in areas that i would have considered outside Buffet's scope (e.g. Apple).

That said, Buffet does have a history of buying companies that have a strong founder who want to continue their growth without their current capital constraints. He has also invested in BYD so he should know the industry well.

There would also be concerns around the power structure of risk taking Elon and relatively conservative Buffet. I don't know if Buffet would be willing to give Elon the level of freedom that Elon would want.

My guess is <25% chance Buffet is one of the backers.

Elon threw quite a lot of shade at Buffett recently. And I'm no Buffett (or buffet) expert, but my impression is that Tesla is not at all the kind of company he invests in. I'd give the possibility <5% chance and think I'm being generous.

My money would be on Page/Alphabet, Apple, and/or one or two of the existing major shareholders. By the way, are we also betting on who's buying? Or just betting on TSLA?
 
In short... it's in everyone (on Team Tesla's side)'s best interest to make the shorts think that a deal isn't going to happen? To be as vague and ambiguous and slow to clarify things as possible, and make things look like an unplanned out-of-the-blue "there goes Crazy Elon tweeting again" moment, to the degree that the law allows?

If so.. mission freaking accomplished ;)
So making the big announcement on Tuesday instead of just saying nothing was a good move because....

????????
 
Whether it matters or not is speculation and guessing, since we don't know what structure for existing investors to stay in post-delisting. (Note that I have switched to saying "de-listing" rather than "going private".) However "accredited investor" is a real thing. You can't participate in IPOs or certain private offerings unless you're an accredited investor, which basically means (for individuals in the US):
And there is also speculation that there may be an ability for current shareholders shares to transfer to TSLAP without being accredited investors. Possibly limited by being unable to accumulate more shares unless accredited. We won't know until we know.

I would say it's likely only accredited investors will be able to own TSLAP but hardly certain, and I would say it is also likely Elon and council have some sort of workaround that they are trying for.

I would posture it is not a fact that only accredited investors will be able to take part in TSLAP. Which is what my post was conveying to the poster I was responding to.

Edit: Reading your post again ggr, looks like we are kind of saying the same thing.
 
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Owning publicly traded companies is less risky because of government oversight (though too lax IMO). Accredited investors with high net worth and/or income can afford more speculation typical of privatization. IMO, and many others here—all?— TSLAP is a strong idea.
Probably all the non trolls.
I'm (wife & I) are way less than halfway eligible to be accredited investors and certainly wouldn't want to lose all investment in TSLA. However we wouldn't be destitute if it happened.
 
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