TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

well they bought back the shares, delisted, and then went private
Dell Completes Go-Private Transaction

but i’m not sure any common stock holders were able to gain access to dell private shares!!
so maybe not the best comparison. i really wonder how they are going to do this, they basically have to segregate eligible holders who will be taking the private share option. once those are accounted for, the rest should be straightforward

Yeah, this sounds like a cash only deal. That would have very different behavior because the lack of optionality. It is the optionality of the Tesla transaction that makes it possible for the price to go well above the cash out level.

I suppose there could be a process where after trading ends on redeems the common share as either cash or private share. Along with that process they would need to get information on shareholders going private. If they do this totally after the stock has been delisted, then there would be no question about whether a broker would need cash or private share. The broker would need to have common shares for every shareholder. This would also require brokers to recall all shares by the end of trading.

 

[tti_7]

Some news from Shanghai. Via vincent (twitter)

The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible.

 

[Foghat]

Very much true, even when Tesla purchase Solar City entire investment community was against it and he was able to push it, this time around most investor are willing to go with his plan to go private. There is so much money out there to put it to work, big guns would be very happy to buy Tesla at 420. Current management at Apple doesn't have guts to buy entire Tesla otherwise best move Apple could do is buy the entire Tesla and have Elon Musk as CEO for 10 years, Apple would be valued at 2 trillion dollars then.

The Norwegian fund is valued at over a trillion dollars.

Add: just to reiterate, Elon said specifically the amount of $420/share. This amount only could be announced if that deal was on the table for the “secured” finance. It’s not about weed, or some random number. It, assumedly by me, was the offer to him. Then, the ball was put in Elon’s court for final decision. I also feel the board was fully aware of this offer. He then tweeted he was “thinking” about taking the company private at that deal offer.

Twitter is recognized by the SEC as legitimate business info dissemination outlet.

He does not need to file an 8k to tweet. He doesn’t need to attach a pdf of the deal offer for anyone whatsoever.

It is my opinion that Tesla has a written offer. It is not an accepted offer, but still an offer at $420. Elon’s tweet is actually the start of the negotiation, using his wide audience base to begin the counter deal point discussion in an “open source” manner with investors. It’s also a much quicker method then traditional legacy avenues to get investors informed and thinking about the issue.

So, in my opinion, the whole debate on if his “secured” statement is true or not, is really one step behind what Elon has done, the funding offer at $420 happened. He tweeted to begin the negotiations with current investors(as well as sense if they are on board or not), and potentially is reading our discussions on them as apart of that process .

 

[RobStark]

Some news from Shanghai. Via vincent (twitter)

 

[Papafox]

Time for the plot to thicken. Model 3 is ramping very well, according to Bloomberg Tracker this weekend.

 

[ke6jph]

Emailed TDAmeritade about my Roth and Rollover accounts to see if we can hold private shares. Just for fun put in limit orders for $2000.00, $2500.00, $3000.00 and 3500.00 at 200 shares each good until canceled (11 December is the latest). None may exicute, would like to be in for the long haul but what the hell............

 

[Cosmacelf]

Some news from Shanghai. Via vincent (twitter)

The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible.

What does “fully assist” mean?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are you loosing your mind?

"Are you losing you're mind?" <= There, FTFY

 

[skitown]

What does “fully assist” mean?

Just watched this episode again tonight. Spoilers!

 

[RobStark]

What does “fully assist” mean?

Don't worry, there will be ~100 pages pontificating on the subject by 10 AM tomorrow.

 

[tti_7]

Some news from Shanghai. Via vincent (twitter)

The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible.

After some digging, this is actually old news from July, not quite "breaking" as vincent put it. It was good news then nevertheless. Quick Google Translate of the July 11th news:

On July 11, the Shanghai Municipal Government held a press conference to respond to Tesla's settlement in the Lingang area. Huang Wei, deputy director of the Shanghai Economic and Information Committee, said that the 500,000 Tesla pure electric vehicle project is the largest in Shanghai's history. For foreign-invested manufacturing projects, the municipal government will do the corresponding support work to help them complete the production as soon as possible.

Sorry longs, I'll try to do better next time instead of just regurgitating.
Edit: Here's the google search for the event.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

What does “fully assist” mean?

Probably the same thing as "Funding secured"

 

[sundaymorning]

A simple way to get more backers is for Elon to put them on the semi, drive them from Fremont to GF. Show them the numbers are for reals. Deal should close upon reaching GF

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just watched this episode again tonight. Spoilers!

Ah, the "Not Hotdog" App from Silicon Valley... my favorite example of AI actually. Incidentally, what a bunch of nerds we are reading about finance on a Sat night.

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 325082
Time for the plot to thicken. Model 3 is ramping very well, according to Bloomberg Tracker this weekend.

Is any good news about Tesla Fundamentals now going to be meaningless to the stock price? I get the feeling that if model 3 weekly production jumped to 7,000 next week, that all stock price movement will still revolve around the $420 offer. Who cares about how profitable Tesla is becoming when all your shares are ever going to be worth as a public compamy for the next 3-6 months is $420.

Possibly the only way good news would increase the price past $420 is if it encouraged a rival bidder at a higher price.

 

[sundaymorning]

Is any good news about Tesla Fundamentals now going to be meaningless to the stock price? I get the feeling that if model 3 weekly production jumped to 7,000 next week, that all stock price movement will still revolve around the $420 offer. Who cares about how profitable Tesla is becoming when all your shares are ever going to be worth as a public compamy for the next 3-6 months is $420.

Possibly the only way good news would increase the price past $420 is if it encouraged a rival bidder at a higher price.

If we get to 7000 $420 will be obliterated.

 

[sundaymorning]

View attachment 325082
Time for the plot to thicken. Model 3 is ramping very well, according to Bloomberg Tracker this weekend.

Looks like 6,000 end of August is within striking distance. If we get to that number within 2-3 weeks, $420 will need to be revised to $480 by end of Q3. Its basically a “poison pill” for shorts, they’re going to be hit from both angles: bidders and cash flow positive. The longer they stick around, the harder the lesson will be.

 

[Thekiwi]

Looks like 6,000 end of August is within striking distance. If we get to that number within 2-3 weeks, $420 will need to be revised to $480 by end of Q3. Its basically a “poison pill” for shorts, they’re going to be hit from both angles: bidders and cash flow positive. The longer they stick around, the harder the lesson will be.

Why would anyone pay more than $420 for a share?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why would anyone pay more than $420 for a share?

Back up 10 pages and start reading... numerous reasons explained and plausible.

 

[Thekiwi]

Back up 10 pages and start reading... numerous reasons explained and plausible.

It hasn’t at all been clarified if/how a Retail investor or institution can remain a shareholder if it goes private - as far as anyone knows now they would have to sell at $420 - therefore it seems at this point to make zero sense to buy or hold shares over $420. The sooner Musk clarifies exactly how all shareholders will be able to participate (or not, as the case may be), the better,.