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I strongly believe Tesla going private is done deal, it’s just matter of time when,if one look at the history, when is the Elon’s wish wasn’t granted at Tesla, If you look at Solar City transaction, it was most hated transaction by investment community but still went through. All legal issues raised by Short sellers is just their pipe dream, their desperation will only increase as deal comes to close.
N5329K
Active Member
Yes, I realize this. On the other hand, owning TSLA has for me been more than just normal investing. It's been part of my show of support for Tesla, and that has had an emotional component.
I haven‘t seen a single statement of PIF stating anything near that. Source ?
Ulmo
Active Member
Do you think Elon already discussed it with the board earlier and knew which way it was going? I wonder if the committee selection changed that, or not, or if Elon knew the committee selection could change that or not? We don't know that without inside knowledge, right? It could very well be that Elon has an idea of how these things will go even without full vetting.
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Wooloomooloo
Member
Such as? Give a tangible example of what you think will be there... An agreement with Panasonic to share 30% of net revenue after the one-millionth car?
N5329K
Active Member
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
It's a no-brainer this will be approved by the Board, if existing shareholders are protected i.e. grandfathered-in.
It gets tricky if significant portion of shareholders will be restricted from continuing to participate, like I expect it to be my case (registered Canadian plans)
I agree that KSA has been on a path of improvement, but they're in a whole different league compared to the USA. Also, I've been to "developing" nations and have seen Saudi money at work, spreading the cancer of Wahhabism.
I'm glad the Saudis are trying to move toward clean energy, but is Elon so desperate to go private that he has to solicit their funding? I'm not trying to be judgmental, as I realize that Elon has developed "mental scar tissue" for very good, noble reasons, and I can't blame him for growing sick and tired of dealing with the public market and short sellers. If nothing else, though, this isn't good for Tesla's brand or marketing.
Menifeer
Member
Apparently it will be the day after...
IIRC, GS Bank has been one of the counter-parties on all the convertible note hedges. Counter-parties are exposed above $327.50 on the 2022 notes and above $359.87 on the 2019/2021 notes.
He paid back all draws against GS Bank's personal line of credit several years ago (IIRC, the pay back was mentioned in the 2016 annual meeting proxy--an appreciable percentage of those prior draws funded purchases of additional shares in follow-on offerings in which GS Investment Banking entity acted as lead underwriter).
MS Bank appears as the only disclosed creditor on Elon's personal line in more recent proxies. 13,774,897 shares pledged as of 12/31/17.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Something doesn't compute: for example the 2019 CV notes of $920m represent (920m/360=) 2.55m shares exposure, which could be hedged with 25k call options.
When TSLA was down to around $250 then GS could have bought the hedges as DOTM call options for less than $5m?
What are the chances that 4 years after the CV note hedge was sold to Tesla and the price has dipped deeply twice, GS is still exposed and is fighting a rising tide, instead of just flipping their position and rising with the tide?
That doesn't seem to make sense to me, unless GS's short exposure is a lot more than the 2-3m shares from all the CV note hedges ...
Do we have any ideas/rumors about how the 35m short positions are distributed amongst the players?
Because someone is fighting the stock price like there was no tomorrow, and is doing it competently.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
A couple of important distinctions must be made:
- "Elon != Tesla" in this deal, like "Michael Dell != Dell" in the 2013 private buyout of Dell.
- "Saudis in on the deal != everyone in on the deal", especially if the deal hasn't even been finalized yet. The board, Elon, various advisors must perform due diligence, must deliberate and reach a decision.
- The Dell buyout was modified a number of times as well, before shareholders voted on it.
- Elon tweeting means he informs investors who might improve his negotiation position: bigger fish might participate in the buyout - while smaller investors can prepare and can also perform old-fashioned price discovery via the TSLA stock price.
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I share your ethical concerns, but I ask you (as I ask myself): what else can you do to "fight" people who literally sit on mountains of billions? Capitalism and public market are all about "openness" to money, and who has more money usually wins: this is the law of the jungle.
I pondering what other solutions are there for Elon regarding Saudis... and I don't find an answer other than "make them do something good with their money".
If you don't want an hostile takeover, what can you do to fight it? Dilute their position asking all others to join is a great move, probably the only one on the table right now.
There was no way for Elon to create a massive company, big enough to disrupt the whole energy sector, without going public in the fist place (he needed the money); thus, there was no way for him to be succesful without attracting unwanted attention for the world's most powerful (and wicked).
I think this is the situation we are in, and the TSLAP solution is probably one of the best ones available.
Tell me if I'm missing something.
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