TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RFernatt]

Got it, "truth isn't truth."

That Giuliani quote reminded me of some Don Henley song lyrics that seem appropriate about now for Tesla fudsters and the current administration:

"Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness because I say I am
And I said gentlemen, and I use that world loosely
I will testify for you, I'm a gun for hire,I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts, there is no truth
Just data to be manipulated
I can get you any result you like
What's it worth to you?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right
And I sleep very well at night
No shame, no solution, no remorse, no retribution
Just people selling t-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning

It was pretty big year for predators
The marketplace was on a roll
And the land of opportunity
Spawned a whole new breed of men without souls
This year notoriety got all confused with fame
And the devil is downhearted babe, cause
There's nothing left for him to claim"

 

[Hogfighter]

Yup, no doubt. That is why I am reluctant to react to any swing these days. Incredibly volatile. Hopefully when things get back to the fundamentals of the company, the ramp of Model 3 and profitability, it will begin to be more reliable. It's kind of funny that these points are the exact points shorts were pointing too saying they would be the downfall of the company. Now it's our strength and we are worried about what Elon is saying on Instagram. LOL!

Dan

Yea what’s ironic is back in the day, the Bear Argument disregarded the noise and shorted based on fundamentals. Now they are shorting on the noise and disregarding the fundamentals.

 

[Joe F]

Yeah, right. UBS, who CNBC just quoted as saying Tesla "loses" (present tense) $6 thousand on every base Model 3. You know, on the base car they don't even make yet.

 

[Xorbit]

Here is the Ark Invest piece from today on CNBC:

ARK Invest CEO is bullish on Tesla

That's a very interesting interview. Thanks for posting. One snippet that caught me by surprise is that she thinks if Tesla de-lists, it will have to provide private equity with a lot more detailed financial information (monthly financials) that could make raising capital more problematic, though she's clearly not in favour of it being taken private.

 

[KarenRei]

...according to Businesses Insider who apparently for some undisclosed reason have access to Tesla's internal documents...

I swear, Tesla seriously needs to start uniquely but subtly watermarking all documents and data that employees work with - randomly tweaking the insignificant digits, automatically slightly altering the wording in text, minute changes to the positioning of elements, subtle image watermarks, etc, etc. In a fully automated process, of course. Any competent programmer could set up such a system for them, so that the unique traits of the leaked data / documents can be tracked back to the person who leaked it.

Right now, they're a sieve, and when everyone and their cousin wants to try to make you fail, that's not okay.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just a single data point. A friend of mine posted this on Facebook:

“Our very special day today...We took delivery of ... a Performance Model 3 with the white interior and all the bells and whistles...

Ordered August 4, website said October - December delivery, got a call that the car was built on August 7, received the VIN on August 10, could have delivered as early as August 15, but I wasn't quite ready...”

Seems that either production is meeting demand, or they are getting really good at prioritizing expensive builds.

 

[mongo]

Just a single data point. A friend of mine posted this on Facebook:

“Our very special day today...We took delivery of ... a Performance Model 3 with the white interior and all the bells and whistles...

Ordered August 4, website said October - December delivery, got a call that the car was built on August 7, received the VIN on August 10, could have delivered as early as August 15, but I wasn't quite ready...”

Seems that either production is meeting demand, or they are getting really good at prioritizing expensive builds.

Does said friend also live in California? Easy to route from Fremont to local delivery rather than match with someone cross country.

 

[KarenRei]

Just a single data point. A friend of mine posted this on Facebook:

“Our very special day today...We took delivery of ... a Performance Model 3 with the white interior and all the bells and whistles...

Ordered August 4, website said October - December delivery, got a call that the car was built on August 7, received the VIN on August 10, could have delivered as early as August 15, but I wasn't quite ready...”

Seems that either production is meeting demand, or they are getting really good at prioritizing expensive builds.

It's very random. If you happen to order something Tesla has on hand or is in the process of building which is not yet earmarked to a customer, you get your car quickly. If you don't, expect at least a month wait, potentially several.

 

[tivoboy]

...or they are getting really good at prioritizing expensive builds.

this

 

[winfield100]

Here is the Ark Invest piece from today on CNBC:

ARK Invest CEO is bullish on Tesla

WOW. what is in the letter ARK is sending Tesla today or tomorrow?
$2,000/share valuation as of today........
a pleasant 5 minutes

 

[dondy]

Have bought two model 3 but I don’t report them on spread sheets or trackers. I am not alone and suspect in the majority. These trackers are not representative

I don't believe either that they use "self-reporting" as a tool. It's too unreliable to report even in 100s. (i.e. predictions should be of x00 type). But in any lie there is some piece of true. People are too lazy to lie creatively. So they get somewhere these american VINs.
May and June were very representative.
They were clearly under-reporting production rates during these months, but their reporting was still corresponding to the sells in USA.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Have bought two model 3 but I don’t report them on spread sheets or trackers. I am not alone and suspect in the majority. These trackers are not representative

You’d be surprised.

 

[EV forever]

WOW. what is in the letter ARK is sending Tesla today or tomorrow?
$2,000/share valuation as of today........
a pleasant 5 minutes

Decided I like her! So added some ARKK in my IRA portfolio (yes, my investment decisions are quite random)

 

[dondy]

UPDATE 1-Morgan Stanley halts research coverage of Tesla

Title says it all, because they may be advising Tesla.

Or they have information about imminent 8K.

 

[SteveG3]

Here is the Ark Invest piece from today on CNBC:

ARK Invest CEO is bullish on Tesla

In the interview Cathy talks about Ark’s $4000 years out price target for Tesla. AND Cathy says she is writing a letter to Elon and the board making her case by showing two different Ark models for the $4,000 valuation. She is looking to send the letter within a day or so. Hope it will be released for the public. Cathy does not want Ark left out of a private Tesla due to limits on what her funds can hold. Making the letter public would seem to help her goal.


fwiw, Cathy said the $4000 future target implies a $2000 current value based on a 15% discount rate.

 

[TradingInvest]

That's a very interesting interview. Thanks for posting. One snippet that caught me by surprise is that she thinks if Tesla de-lists, it will have a provide private equity with a lot more detailed financial information (monthly financials) that could make raising capital more problematic, though she's clearly not in favour of it being taken private.

ARK thinks TSLA has huge upside, but the fund can't invest in private companies. So they want Tesla to stay public, or go private at a much higher price than $420. I agree with their bullish view regarding Tesla's potential in autonomous driving and EV. I can't agree with them regarding privatization. In my view, there is a big risk if Tesla stays public. A large group of shorts actively do things to hurt the company, it is developing into a permanent negative drag. I hope Tesla will be taken private quickly. All my shares will stay in.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$4000 per share.

Make that TSLA $4,000 in 5 years. She said it's PV is $2,000 at a 15% discount rate. Doing the math, that's 5 years. So by 2023.

The commentator also asked if that's a Market Cap of $700B, and she said "yeah, close." Previously, Tesla's Board approved Elon's tranches up to $650B Market Cap.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Decided I like her! So added some ARKK in my IRA portfolio (yes, my investment decisions are quite random)

You should setup an investment consultancy, dude!

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I swear, Tesla seriously needs to start uniquely but subtly watermarking all documents and data that employees work with - randomly tweaking the insignificant digits, automatically slightly altering the wording in text, minute changes to the positioning of elements, subtle image watermarks, etc, etc. In a fully automated process, of course. Any competent programmer could set up such a system for them, so that the unique traits of the leaked data / documents can be tracked back to the person who leaked it.

Right now, they're a sieve, and when everyone and their cousin wants to try to make you fail, that's not okay.

You only need to be that paranoid about leaks if you're hiding something. Also the harder you try to stop leaks, the more they happen... look at the Whitehouse!

Tesla should just get on with it... this storm will be over someday but there's a long long slog to come... fretting day to day will give you a heart attack before they get there.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Yea what’s ironic is back in the day, the Bear Argument disregarded the noise and shorted based on fundamentals. Now they are shorting on the noise and disregarding the fundamentals.

Yup, the ever moving, ever changing, ever morphing goal posts of the Tesla bears.

Dan