TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dondy]

While I agree with you on much of what you say, I do take some issue with the concept of autonomy. Tesla has stated several times that they could have easily done the cross country demonstration as much as a year ago if they had simply programmed the route. This would, however, create a false positive among the public. By your analysis then they could have reaped the benefits of such a demonstration long ago but instead they chose to go with the bigger picture rather than mislead the public into believing the system was "ready". I feel like the news of the new Tesla chip is huge and along with the hardware updates scheduled to be implemented in the next few months could very well lead to full autonomy within the next two years.

As is the case with all of this, time will tell for sure.

Dan

Forget about autonomy for now. There is no proper legislation for their use quite yet.
(Simple question: who is at fault if AI makes an incident riding a wrong marked road?)
Google uses remote drivers for more reasons than people think.
Even when such technology will be ready it will take another few years for insurance,public laws, and population habits to catch the ride. It is a bomb, and of a thermonuclear type, but we are still in 1945.

 

[dondy]

My point is that Tesla/the special committee will get sued if they approve to go for a vote on 420, even if they find the right investor. 420 is too low.

They will get anyway, even if they will cancel privatization. They are already sued.

 

[PaulusdB]

I have a hypothesis about the hidden meaning behind two recent tweets from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Red and The Black

Elon Musk on Twitter

[ A row of objects: a globe of the red planet Mars, a black Model S, plus 'snap!', 'crackle!' and 'pop!' Rice Krispies. ]​

I think it's a reference to Tesla profit and loss.

The obvious interpretation of the image would be that Elon now sees (perhaps from internal accounting snapshots) Tesla having passed from red into black, and as a result the fourth, fifth and sixth derivatives of the price (called 'snap', 'crackle' and 'pop') will go insane: i.e. a TSLA price spike, a step function of TSLA gapping up.

Speculation only.

And of course he’s dying to share that information.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1032561259655323648
Plus the mention of ‘profit and loss’ in the T.S. Eliot quote.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1031936103891140608

On the other hand, preparing to share his comments on the state of affairs with G. could be just as plausible.

 

[jw934]

Note that Dell had robustly positive cash flow leading up to the private buyout, while Tesla does not.

Unless Q3 are Q4 are going to be blow-out quarters pretty much any cash flow based valuation would undervalue Tesla.

Regardless of Q3/Q4, the plaintiff is going to discount the $4000 share price to arrive at their fair value. In Dell's case, the plaintiff computed a fair value share price of $28.61, while the defendants’ expert arrived at $12.68 v.s actual accepted offer of $13.96. Judgement was $17.62 as the fair value. My guess is that the Special Committee is not aiming the offer price for 51% of the vote because the risk cost will be too high if 49% votes No.

 

[Johan]

I have a hypothesis about the hidden meaning behind two recent tweets from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Red and The Black

Elon Musk on Twitter

[ Three rows of objects: a globe of the red planet Mars, a black Model S, plus 'snap!', 'crackle!' and 'pop!' Rice Krispies. ]​

I think it's a reference to Tesla profit and loss.

The obvious interpretation of the image would be that Elon now sees (perhaps from internal accounting snapshots) Tesla having passed from red into black, and as a result the fourth, fifth and sixth derivatives of the price (called 'snap', 'crackle' and 'pop') will go insane: i.e. a TSLA price spike, a step function of TSLA gapping up.

Speculation only.

I like how your brain works.

 

[avoigt]

Talking about Customer Service and Satisfaction watch this Video, start at minute 16:30

 

[NicoV]

What is Belgium's stance on wealth held off shore. Majority of my stocks is in Canada.

We tax our citizens globally here in Canada, no matter where their wealth are in the world.

It’s the same in Belgium: where your stocks are held doesn’t matter, just whether you are considered a Belgian resident or not.

 

[Fact Checking]

Regardless of Q3/Q4, the plaintiff is going to discount the $4000 share price to arrive at their fair value.

Where does the $4,000 price come from?

In Dell's case the high $28 valuation appears to have come from an extrapolation of past performance into future performance.

In Tesla's case, if we ignore Q3/Q4 and extrapolate past performance into future performance we get the result many shorts/bears have gotten: not enough cash in early 2019, which causes forced dilution or bankwuptcy. Not good for valuation.

The only way to arrive at $4,000 is to speculate bullishly, which courts are generally reluctant to do.

 

[loky]

A nice article at Cleantechnica:


What’s Tesla’s best asset? Elon Musk? Its battery expertise? Its production facilities?

Haha — you gotta think bigger.

Tesla’s #1 asset is the millions of people who have his back.
Valuation?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Forget about autonomy for now. There is no proper legislation for their use quite yet.
(Simple question: who is at fault if AI makes an incident riding a wrong marked road?)
Google uses remote drivers for more reasons than people think.
Even when such technology will be ready it will take another few years for insurance,public laws, and population habits to catch the ride. It is a bomb, and of a thermonuclear type, but we are still in 1945.

Actually, this may end up being the easiest concern to solve. I think that as long as there is a way for a person to disengage/take over for any driver assist system then the driver will be at fault. Just like autopilot systems in aircraft...the pilot in command is ALWAYS responsible for the actions of the aircraft. As the likelihood of such an accident happening will be significantly lower with automated programs, insurance companies will not have a problem covering those limited situations. If we get to the point where you have no over ride or even no steering or pedal mechanisms then the liability would have to fall to the manufacturer. For this reason I don't think you will see cars with no steering wheels for quite some time.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

Agree. A 100 stall supercharger at fleet base with one minimum wage employee responsible for plugging cars in/out would likely be cheaper than any automated .

Though a bit less efficient than a plug inductive charging would be an easy solution. Car just parks over the pad on the ground.

 

[Fact Checking]

Talking about Customer Service and Satisfaction watch this Video, start at minute 16:30

Amazing!

(Also worth watching the 20:30 mark, how they got called by Tesla.)

 

[SO16]

I have a hypothesis about the hidden meaning behind two recent tweets from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Red and The Black

Elon Musk on Twitter

[ Three rows of objects: a globe of the red planet Mars, a black Model S, plus 'snap!', 'crackle!' and 'pop!' Rice Krispies. ]​

I think it's a reference to Tesla profit and loss.

The obvious interpretation of the image would be that Elon now sees (perhaps from internal accounting snapshots) Tesla having passed from red into black, and as a result the fourth, fifth and sixth derivatives of the price (called 'snap', 'crackle' and 'pop') will go insane: i.e. a TSLA price spike, a step function of TSLA gapping up.

Speculation only.

Or it’s possible (as I’ve heard bears mention), that Tesla would now be assigned a P/E ratio and the stock would drop because of it.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Though a bit less efficient than a plug inductive charging would be an easy solution. Car just parks over the pad on the ground.

With the lower efficiency and higher infrastructure cost, having a worker plug the cars in/out would still likely be the cheaper and better solution, though.

An automated solution will need to be implemented when going from larger fleet hubs to a distributed fleet. At that point you couldn't use employees as the utilization would be too low. Inductive charging is one solution, but I think some sort of conductive solution would be preferable. Maybe a solution like you have on a Roomba, where the movement of the car is what makes the connection.

 

[winfield100]

Please stop with the charade and lies.

@beachbum77 is Donn Bailey, one of the most prolific Tesla short authors on Seeking Alpha, with 67 anti-Tesla articles published over the past 14 months. His disclosure on Seeking Alpha says:

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA VIA OPTIONS."​

So his Put options are about to go to zero when the go private deal closes. Good.

This is a great example of why Elon wants Tesla to go private though. The dishonesty of short sellers never ends. I for one will be glad to see them gone.

@EinSV
/snark on
oh dear
now you will be banned from "sleezeking Alfalfa" for "doxxing" Donn Bailey, who wrote a highly "reputable" article about a "Tesla semi killer" made by nikola (see mockup/model/tonka toy somewhere) because they get free Hydrogen for 1,000,000 miles for their "fool/fuel cell motors
/snark off

 

[Fact Checking]

Or it’s possible (as I’ve heard bears mention), that Tesla would now be assigned a P/E ratio and the stock would drop because of it.

Tesla is on the verge of its own "Amazon moment".

Did Amazon's stock price start dropping when they started generating cash, just because they had a pro forma P/E ratio in the hundreds and thousands??

So this latest short/bear thesis is awfully funny, and I suspect once these shorts end up in bankruptcy court, they will have a robust case to plead insanity.

 

[Ratanpara]

I have a hypothesis about the hidden meaning behind two recent tweets from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Red and The Black

Elon Musk on Twitter

[ Three rows of objects: a globe of the red planet Mars, a black Model S, plus 'snap!', 'crackle!' and 'pop!' Rice Krispies. ]​

I think it's a reference to Tesla profit and loss.

The obvious interpretation of the image would be that Elon now sees (perhaps from internal accounting snapshots) Tesla having passed from red into black, and as a result the fourth, fifth and sixth derivatives of the price (called 'snap', 'crackle' and 'pop') will go insane: i.e. a TSLA price spike, a step function of TSLA gapping up.

Speculation only.

Probably true, Elon always send cryptography message to market.

 

[Xorbit]

Tesla is on the verge of its own "Amazon moment".

Did Amazon's stock price start dropping when they started generating cash...

Amazon turned cash flow positive in 2001. That marked a seminal moment for the stock as it coincided with an important low that never got re-tested, either during the ongoing Nasdaq crash, or during the 2008 crash.

 

[serverguy247]

I have a hypothesis about the hidden meaning behind two recent tweets from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Red and The Black

Elon Musk on Twitter

​

​

I think you got it there! Look how he switched red and the black emoji... The red is now black.... That with the "profit and loss" poem... Tesla are now in profit.

 

[Xorbit]

Doing a Google search for the terms "amazon becomes cash flow positive" yields interesting results. Most of them date from 2014/15, fully 13 years after Amazon first started generating free cash flow. Same mainstream media scepticism, different company. Here's page 1:

3 Reasons Why Amazon's “Cash Flow” Is A Trap - New Constructs
[URL='https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/11/amazons-cash-flow-is-an-illusion.aspx']Amazon is a Money Pit, Not a Cash Flow Machine -- The Motley Fool
[URL='https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/10/20/three-reasons-why-amazons-cash-flow-is-a-trap/']Three Reasons Why Amazon's Cash Flow Is No Comfort - Forbes[/URL]
[URL='https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/10/20/three-reasons-why-amazons-cash-flow-is-a-trap/'][URL='https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/10/20/three-reasons-why-amazons-cash-flow-is-a-trap/']Fundamental Case Study: Is Amazon's Cash Flow Actually Solid ...[/URL][/URL]

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