TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Well, what Elon tweeted is what happened:

• He was considering taking Tesla private,
• Funding was secured, only contingent on shareholder vote,
• But shareholders indicated they wouldn't vote on it and find it a bad idea,
• Elon reconsidered, board agreed

Imagine the outrage had this been kept secret and then leaked.

BTW., I also find it kind of amazing that despite him originally favoring the going-private model, Elon was able to reconsider. He didn't try to force through the going-private deal like Michael Dell did, he didn't put Tesla through months of uncertainty to save face.

Given how often Elon talked about the advantages of going-private, and given the example of the forced Dell buyout of 2013, reaffirming the public company model might also bring on more investors - especially if Tesla becomes profitable in Q3/Q4.

 

[Skryll]

If you think attacking me for having my opinion is going to improve anything, you're going to have another thought coming soon enough. My opinion will be shared by a great many other shareholders.

I'm also still not seeing the "short burn of the century" we were all promised either.

Short burn is inevitable as cash flow from Q3/Q4 shows up. But it does take elon time for sure.

 

[MXWing]

For what my advice is worth:

What is really going to matter is Q3, Q4 results. If Tesla does well across those two, I think 420 is getting breached regardless.

Remember why we are all here and I will leave a quote that echos the sentiment of all of us when we first got inside a Tesla.

“I’ll buy it!”
“I’ll take it!”
- Jay Leno

This sentiment will only snowball as more and more exposure happens to the cars we love and the visionary behind it all.

Going to go run errands around town tomorrow with my Performance 3 and lay the smack down on some Corvettes, Bimmers, Mercs or anything unfortunate to line up next to me.

 

[gene]

At least staying public I don't have to be sad about this forum thread vanishing. Over 5 years of enjoying the conversation, and even made a few personal friends here.

 

[Electroman]

I am disappointed and disillusioned. Musk should have stayed the course and gone private, and ended this charade by shorts.

It is a short term pain to go private, but that would have been the right thing to do.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ramping - Creating activity or rumors intended to raise the price of a stock.

Elon tweeted that he is considering taking Tesla private, contingent only on shareholder vote.

Which are true statements and it is exactly what happened - shareholders indicated they prefer Tesla as a public company. (Some of them did it very publicly.)

No false rumors here.

BTW., it's also very interesting that you didn't include this type of market manipulation in your list:

Market manipulation - Wikipedia

Stock bashing: "This scheme is usually orchestrated by savvy online message board posters (a.k.a. "Bashers") who make up false and/or misleading information about the target company in an attempt to get shares for a cheaper price. This activity, in most cases, is conducted by posting libelous posts on multiple public forums."​

Isn't that exactly what you are doing here?

Do you consider your stock bashing activity to be an attempt at criminal market manipulation? If yes, are you hoping that you are too small of a fish for the SEC or civil litigants to bother about?

In any case, if what you are doing is illegal I'd suggest for you to preserve all evidence, should the SEC or other authorities subpoena you.

If you deleted evidence of stock bashing activities it could constitute destruction of evidence or obstruction of justice - which are felonies.

Not legal advice.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have a significant chunk put into TSLA, most of it for the long haul. But that said it seems the permabulls in here will twist all news positively, which is annoying (but not as bad as permabulls). And if there is not short squeeze, Musk is only furrher going to be perceived as a charlatan.

Better hope for a very strong Q3

 

[Sancho]

I'm a huge Musk fan, and I recognize that there are upsides and downsides of having the brilliant risk-taking entrepreneur remain as CEO, as a company gets bigger. We can all point to situations where this has succeeded and where it has failed.

All I can say is that the (now-aborted) going private tweets, coupled with some of his other ill-considered tweets over the past few months, has increased in my mind the downside risk factor. I still think the fair value of TSLA is greater than the current SP, even after the larger discount that I now place on his CEO downsides. And I will continue to monitor and adjust that downside depending on how much Musk learns from these mistakes and modifies his behavior.

This has been a bad month for Musk's reputation as a business leader. But it's just one month, and there are many important months ahead.

 

[Fact Checking]

I am disappointed and disillusioned. Musk should have stayed the course and gone private, and ended this charade by shorts.

Arguments were made here that the $420 buyout price created a bail-out for shorts: institutional investors who cannot own (or don't want to own) private Tesla shares would have been forced to sell to shorts at around $420, had the going-private gone through.

So if you were hoping for a more violent short burn, this plus Q3 profitability might be the catalyst.

Most shorts, if they cover at a loss, become involuntary Tesla investors who will not profit from those investments.

That is going to be an epic case of karma.

 

[Ghostman]

For what my advice is worth:

What is really going to matter is Q3, Q4 results. If Tesla does well across those two, I think 420 is getting breached regardless.

Remember why we are all here and I will leave a quote that echos the sentiment of all of us when we first got inside a Tesla.

“I’ll buy it!”
“I’ll take it!”
- Jay Leno

This sentiment will only snowball as more and more exposure happens to the cars we love and the visionary behind it all.

Going to go run errands around town tomorrow with my Performance 3 and lay the smack down on some Corvettes, Bimmers, Mercs or anything unfortunate to line up next to me.

My M3 is at the service center for a minor fix, but the part got delayed. The service folks gave me a brand new Mercedes GLC 300 loaner. It's been a day and I already miss my M3. The acceleration, control, response, smooth ride, and tech is just so far ahead of the other manufacturers. Once people drive a Tesla, there is no going back....not until the other guys catch up. This little experience just reinforced my long-term view of Tesla. There is no competition right now.

 

[sundaymorning]

I have a significant chunk put into TSLA, most of it for the long haul. But that said it seems the permabulls in here will twist all news positively, which is annoying (but not as bad as permabulls). And if there is not short squeeze, Musk is only furrher going to be perceived as a charlatan.

Better hope for a very strong Q3

Sorry many of our belief in this company doesn’t align with your short term/long term puts. For the record, many investors really don’t care what your puts have to say. What we do care about for the moment, is that this company stays public.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

As mentioned in the post above way before the announcement, my vote would have been to stay public. You may want to read DaveT’s comments about staying public as well.

 

[Fact Checking]

This has been a bad month for Musk's reputation as a business leader.

Well, Elon has been talking about the private path for years, so in a way it's good that this uncertainty of Tesla going Dell is out of the way.

Shorts are going to have a Twitter meltdown, and in other news water is wet.

But it's just one month, and there are many important months ahead.

It was even shorter than that: it was just a little over two weeks of uncertainty - but agreed, and it's also important that the going-private negotiations are now not taking the focus away from Tesla's upcoming Q3 and Q4 profitability events.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sorry many of our belief in this company doesn’t align with your short term/long term puts. For the record, many investors really don’t care what your puts have to say. What we do care about for the moment, is that this company stays public.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

As mentioned in the post above way before the announcement, my vote would have been to stay public. You may want to read DaveT’s comments about staying public as well.

I only own shares, and I prefer public as well. I just prefer less noise and more signal from the CEO. A benefit of that would be less noise ftim permabulls and permabears to sift through.

 

[DaveT]

Glad to see TSLA staying public.

 

[skybluecgreen]

So we will have the short drama longer. Sorry to hear that. At least I know for sure I can keep all my shares.

Two options for Monday: Outrage and spiteful laughter amongst the shorts will kill the price.

Or

The ones interested in Tesla can buy in and are not bound by NDA/insider trading rules.

I think it will be both. The stock will be hammered on the opening and will end green. Even if it takes longer to recover, Monday should be a great oppourtunity to add, if possible. Shhh, don't tell anyone else.

 

[sundaymorning]

It was even shorter than that: it was just a little over two weeks of uncertainty - but agreed, and it's also important that the going-private negotiations are now not taking the focus away from Tesla's upcoming Q3 and Q4 profitability events.

Absolutely agree, the decision to not go private was as swift as $420. At this point I hope Elon learned his lesson: that nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing should interfere with Q3 & 4 production going forward. Just focus and execute.

I’ll say it again, Elon was haste as well as selfish for wanting to take us private right before Q3 numbers. He knows deep inside it was his last chance before Q3 numbers are released. Once profit comes, the price would have likely spike out of this world. Now, had he offered a take private deal after the Q3/4 spike in SP, then I would have taken that offer a bit more gracefully.

PS: I didn’t take all the harassment from shorts since 2012 to settle for $420. Not gna happen. When FUD hits the fan, it either scares away weak longs, or it’ll make a strong long even more bitter. Personally, I’m as salty and bitter as they come when it comes to Tesla shorts.

 

[Fact Checking]

if there is not short squeeze

If Tesla keeps executing then a 2013-style short squeeze is a near mathematical certainty: there were credible rumors that at $350 price levels many large shorts were on 300% margin already, and TSLA is already severely undervalued due to the unprecedented levels of FUD.

The main hope shorts have left at this stage is a negative Q3 surprise.

 

[EVNow]

Disappointed at this news. I definitely didn’t anticipate this. My post tweet bought stock is going to be under water for a while, I guess.

Thankfully I didn’t sell off my other stock (with large capital gains) to buy Tesla yet.

 

[AZRI11]

I expect 350 on Monday. Institutional investors indicated to Elon that their ready to take this to the next level, short burn of century.

 

[Fact Checking]

I have a significant chunk put into TSLA, most of it for the long haul.

BTW., some might have read this as "put options", which is a short position.

You might want to clarify your post to "I have a significant chunk invested into TSLA" ;-)