TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

That makes an exceptionally large amount of sense.

Indeed.

Additionally, the car's BMS commands the Supercharger in order to dictate power delivery. Given the car's BMS can be updated, it makes sense that there may be new commands/capabilities/etc... that they'd need the SC to be able to handle as well.

 

[Johan]

Fair enough
I’ll stop posting here
No hard feelings

Please don’t stop posting! Just don’t do the Twitter copy-paste in my opinion.

 

[tivoboy]

I
1. Elon pushing the plan against reasons and in the process destroying board/investor trust and disrupting norm operation
2. Elon exposing his character and mental defects
3. Elon losing credibility

I think #3 is going to be the interim issue. The shorts are going to be able to make the argument that he's not credible and try and force the board to augment or replace. Hopefully, replacement won't happen, but augment with a solid COO/Several would be a VERY good thing at this point for the board and company to gain back some credibility from this clear farce and two week CYA.

I think it's important to note in the BOARD letter that came out after ELON's letter, that "HE" had retained the outside counsel. Some still think that TESLA had retained GS and MS (assuming this was M&A or lining up credit) when it was ELON who did the engaging.

We'll see in short order.

* still long 300sh. still short sept 310 calls.

 

[scaesare]

I would not be so sure.

Superchargers don't have any vin blacklists, all "supercharging allowed" and billing is handled inside the car. Hack the car = free supercharging, allowed supercharging no matter if salvage or not.

"Yet".

We know the car sends it's VIN to the supercharger, so validation capability could be implemented.

 

[Fact Checking]

No, it's evidence that investors didn't believe in it in the first place.

So, the short opinion is that Tesla dropped 20-30% because investors didn't believe Elon would take Tesla private?

Why would they have sold if they thought it wouldn't happen? Tesla would have been public before and after, i.e. no change.

What sense does that logic make?

 

[winfield100]

Why doesn't UBS disclose that it is massively shorting TSLA?
Puts:
$446M in June
$402M in March
$682M last December
$534M September
$326M June
$501M March...
fintel.io/soh/us/tsla/ubs
UBS needs Tesla to fail.

a dumb question.
i went to page
https://fintel.io/soh/us/tsla/ubs
IF (an I'm a complete newbie at options)
It looks like UBS
owns 1,804,673 shares
calls of 3,678,920
puts of 12,051,100

it looks like an imbalance of 6,567,507 shares of puts VS calls and shares owned unless i'm reading this incorrectly.
Now, thats not the "joking" 15,000,000 mentioned a few days ago, but not very insignificant.

If there are options folks (actually any options folks since i know zip) please help enlighten me.....

 

[Johan]

What sense does that logic make?

Don't bring sense or logic in to the discussion. "Long shorts", i.e. those who've said TSLA was overvalued since 2012 and those who still seem to think the whole operation is a house of cards built on lies and government handouts, don't care about common sense. And what logical argument are you going to use to persuade someone who doesn't believe in logic in the first place (or have "a logic of their own")?

 

[JRP3]

Please don’t stop posting!

No worries, he threatens to leave every few weeks or so but can't keep his word. Amazing that any of you find any value in anything such an individual posts...

 

[DrKenneth]

So, the short opinion is that Tesla dropped 20-30% because investors didn't believe Elon would take Tesla private?

Why would they have sold if they thought it wouldn't happen? Tesla would have been public before and after, i.e. no change.

What sense does that logic make?

It's not confidence inspiring to have the CEO make a such a mistake. Whole thing could have been avoided with a 2 minute phone call to anyone (not that you should have even needed it). He could have called his sons. Even they could have advised him:

• Do not announce huge news on Twitter while the markets are open
• Have you informed the board?
• Have you discussed this with lawyers and/or other experts? Have actually talked to anybody about this?
  
• Have you actually secured the funding? Does the buyer/funder know your going to be going public? Did you agree upon the price with the funders?
• Have you secured support of other major shareholders?

So I think investors did not believe that Tesla was going private and whole ordeal reflected poorly on Tesla and Musk and therefore their enthusiasm and valuation is down. Mean while, I believe your explanation for the SP drop is that investors wanted to own the stock, but sold or did not buy, because in the worst case scenario they would have had to sell at 30% premium. Now that there is no longer a risk of a 30% profit these investors are going to be coming back.

 

[hellnoICE]

a dumb question.
i went to page
UBS Group AG reports 34.06% decrease in ownership of TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io
IF (an I'm a complete newbie at options)
It looks like UBS
owns 1,804,673 shares
calls of 3,678,920
puts of 12,051,100

it looks like an imbalance of 6,567,507 shares of puts VS calls and shares owned unless i'm reading this incorrectly.
Now, thats not the "joking" 15,000,000 mentioned a few days ago, but not very insignificant.

If there are options folks (actually any options folks since i know zip) please help enlighten me.....

I am a newbie too. I think the current status is...
UBS Group AG has ownership of 84,892 shares of TSLA valued at $29,114,000 USD as of June 30, 2018.
UBS currently holds 314,690 call options valued at $107,923,000 USD and 1,302,400 put options valued at $446,658,000 USD.
Point is, all the money UBS is trying to make with all these short trades.

 

[generalenthu]

It is a great read. It's on my "Geek Reading List" (attached)

What kind of list is this, where Elon's biography is dead last.

 

[generalenthu]

It's not confidence inspiring to have the CEO make a such a mistake. Whole thing could have been avoided with a 2 minute phone call to anyone (not that you should have even needed it). He could have called his sons. Even they could have advised him:

• Do not announce huge news on Twitter while the markets are open
• Have you informed the board?
• Have you discussed this with lawyers and/or other experts? Have actually talked to anybody about this?
  
• Have you actually secured the funding? Does the buyer/funder know your going to be going public? Did you agree upon the price with the funders?
• Have you secured support of other major shareholders?

So I think investors did not believe that Tesla was going private and whole ordeal reflected poorly on Tesla and Musk and therefore their enthusiasm and valuation is down. Mean while, I believe your explanation for the SP drop is that investors wanted to own the stock, but sold or did not buy, because in the worst case scenario they would have had to sell at 30% premium. Now that there is no longer a risk of a 30% profit these investors are going to be coming back.

No one but Elon and a handful of folks know the motivation behind the tweet. Elon is not random and I am sure he considered the risks. When the next book on Elon is written, we'll get the details.

I think the situation didn't pan out as expected. In hindsight, yes, he should have fully considered the risks, or called someone quickly.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Moved lots of posts (42 -- the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything), some acrimonious, to:
Software quality and security (out of Market Action)
I hereby request that all users, when you see something like this about to start and you feel you must contribute, here is the process to move the thread BEFORE it overwhelms all the other users and in particular the moderators.

Zeroth, open another tab to TMC forum investors' section and check that no-one else has already done it. If so post there.
0.5th, take a couple of deep breaths and decide whether you really care this much.
First, select all the text in the post you have to reply to. A popup box will appear with "+ Quote | Reply" in it. Select "+Quote". This adds it to a buffer you can use later. When you do this a button "Insert Quotes..." appears in the posting box at the bottom.
Second, back out of the current (presumably Market Action) thread, and at the top of the sub-forum there is "Post New Thread" button. Press it.
Third, select an appropriate title. Your fame will be guaranteed, as you will now be memorialized as the owner of the thread.
Fourth, press the "Insert Quotes" button to select the one or more saved quotes, complete with proper references and everything!
Fifth, type whatever incredibly important observation you simply must make, and press "Post Reply".

Thanks. --ggr.

 

[PaulusdB]

a dumb question.
i went to page
UBS Group AG reports 34.06% decrease in ownership of TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io
IF (an I'm a complete newbie at options)
It looks like UBS
owns 1,804,673 shares
calls of 3,678,920
puts of 12,051,100

it looks like an imbalance of 6,567,507 shares of puts VS calls and shares owned unless i'm reading this incorrectly.
Now, thats not the "joking" 15,000,000 mentioned a few days ago, but not very insignificant.

If there are options folks (actually any options folks since i know zip) please help enlighten me.....

Part of my $TSLA holdings are through leveraged products issued by my broker. (Binck Bank Turbo XL products; Overzicht turbo's Tesla Inc text in Dutch, but contractual documents are in English.) The products are traded against UBS AG as counterparty.
From the product contract (Issuer = BinckBank):

...
Role of UBS AG
In connection with the issuance of the Securities, the Issuer has entered into an arrangement with UBS AG, pursuant to which UBS AG (which may also be acting through its London branch) will act as Calculation Agent, Paying Agent Market Maker, Settlement Bank, Safekeeping Bank and Hedging Counterparty to the Issuer in respect of the economic risk of the Securities, and may provide certain other services to the Issuer.
As Market Maker, UBS AG intends, under normal market conditions, to provide bid and offer prices for the Securities on a regular basis on behalf of the Issuer. Although the Market Maker will provide such bid and offer prices for the Securities on behalf of the Issuer, such prices will be determined by the Market Maker in its sole discretion, independent from the Issuer.
Notwithstanding the contractual arrangements between the Issuer and UBS AG, the Securities are obligations of the Issuer only and are not in any way guaranteed or insured by UBS AG or any of its affiliates and holders of the Securities will have no rights or recourse against UBS or any of its affiliates. In the event that UBS defaults under or terminates the hedge agreement with respect to the Securities, the Issuer may (but is not obliged to) elect to call the Securities.
...

Could the mentioned shares and options of UBS be the underlying securities for the leverage products (Turbo / TurboXL) issued bij BinckBank and possibly others?

(My holdings are long at various financing levels, but I can imagine the existence of a lot of short positions from other clients.)

 

[Singuy]

Can someone please point me to where Elon misled anyone here? He said he was THINKING about taking Tesla private at 420 and he has the funding for it(still have no proof that he doesn't). He then tweeted taking private is not a sure deal because he needs the shareholder's approval. He then surveyed shareholders and they told him not to do it so now he's no longer pursuing. He never said he will take Tesla private or it was a done deal. His intent was always "I would like Tesla private@ 420 but what do you guys think? ..No?..okay then".

This is stock manipulation and it's illegal?

 

[scaesare]

What kind of list is this, where Elon's biography is dead last.

LILO

 

[MXWing]

When one goes to purchase a house , you can make good faith offers on a prequalification.
Is that funding secured?


You can still abort the purchase. Closing the loan takes a more in depth review and it can fall apart despite the prequalification?

 

[hellnoICE]

Can someone please point me to where Elon misled anyone here? He said he was THINKING about taking Tesla private at 420 and he has the funding for it(still have no proof that he doesn't). He then tweeted taking private is not a sure deal because he needs the shareholder's approval. He then surveyed shareholders and they told him not to do it so now he's no longer pursuing. He never said he will take Tesla private or it was a done deal. His intent was always "I would like Tesla private@ 420 but what do you guys think? ..No?..okay then".

This is stock manipulation and it's illegal?

Whereas UBS put options of $2.9B since March 2017 and spreading FUD on Tesla are... not? stock manipulation?

 

[Singuy]

When one goes to purchase a house , you can make good faith offers on a prequalification.
Is that funding secured?


You can still abort the purchase. Closing the loan takes a more in depth review and it can fall apart despite the prequalification?

"Funding secured" when you are "thinking" about buying anything is a liquid proposition. Hey I have 100% of the money in my bank to buy this house..I'll think about it. Guess what..tomorrow you ended up buying a M3 because you changed your mind..you never backed out of a contract from buying the house because you just thought about purchasing it..didn't sign on any doted line.

 

[Ugliest1]

Fixed that for you.

Smarter short arguments please! 2019 will be very boring if you all get wiped out due to ill considered bets in the stock market.

I would kind of like boring. Remember the old Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times". It would be very nice to not have the manufactured bullish*t drama. Shorting is one thing. Making up lies to encourage profiting out of shorting is evil.