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Writing for SA means you've lost all credibility. I, for one, don't believe a single word you say.
Oh, and do stay out of that hot sun - it seems to be taking a toll on your thinking abilities.
I just looked through the entire "new" inventory on the Tesla site for model S and did not see a single one over 10,000 miles... all of these look to me to be demo or loaner cars, most are under 1,000 miles. There are a number of used over 10,000 miles, typically 2015 or 2014 and I would bet most are lease returns.
If you want to see what Donn REALLY thinks, go to the Seeking Alpha app and search for Donn Bailey, then look at the titles of his articles. He's probably second to Montana Skeptic for FUD published.
BTW, the DOE map listing Hydrogen stations in the US and Canada shows 36 locations, mostly in California. Tesla just drove a Semi across the country, try that with a Toyota Mirai (which costs $57,500).
There is nothing to bet. The future is literally already decided and dictated by physics.
I'm sure they did. I would have too cuz the battery tech was just barely there.
But why use hydrogen instead of electric? The infrastructure for electric is global. Last I checked 100? Years ago we had the electric infrastructure for charging. You're starting from zero with hydrogen. Plus you completely omitted my argument about the complexity of the hydrogen system versus just making the vehicle fully electric. I just don't see a reason to use Hydrogen. Convince me as a consumer to go to hydrofen. I mean ICE to electric I can see many advantages....but hydrogen is outdated tech already.
and we have vehemently disagreed before. I have done the math, others have done the math.
You know, but seem to not admit, how extremely inefficient Hydrogen fuel cells are
A hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is _actually_ an electric vehicle, with a bunch of pumps and catalysts and membranes and tanks for -->liquid hydrogen<-
You have been told multiple times how inefficient H2 is
If you used renewables to make it, electrolyzing H2O, instead of simple storing electrons in batteries, I seem to recall that is at best 25% efficient, not so great
If you used natural gas, you steam refine at 1,100+ degrees centrigrage, then squeeze it, liquify it using a triple step process throwing away energy at every step of liquifaction and store a tiny molecule, H2, in a leaky, brittle container.
THEN, you turn the H2 -->back into electrons and lose more energy
We have been over this before, and my only takeaway, is you have a basic lacking in chemistry and physics
The only positive, is that yo have always been mildly respectful in relation the the rest of the Seeking Alpha denizens levels.
You really really need to read and understand
About Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (They're Not Clean)
alset92977
Member
that I'm willing to,sadly
tho the shares will belong to my grandkids, (unless we hit post scarcity phases)
(wish i had bought 1 share of BRK.A for $44,000 long ago, now $313,000/share, or kept my 100 shares of MSFT, vaguely remember buying for roughly vaguely $2,000 in early 1980's (almost 35 yrs ago) and sold for tidy profit soon after
I expect TSLA to far surpass. with their coming cloud of LEO (low earth orbit) cheap, readily replacable comsats, Tesla Energy, eventual competition with airlines for rapid transcontinental travel Boring company, and freaking MARS colony, plus other portions of solar system.
If you really are an investor, take a really long term view, otherwise, just a poseur grifter
I enjoy reading this forum. I do not understand much of what is posted here, and it makes it even harder when members do not proof read their posts. I am not a trader. I bought Tesla stock because I believe in the mission. In the long term EV's will help clean up the environment. We have purchased solar panels, bought some stock, and ordered an M3. We are doing our part to help the planet survive. I do not get upset over SP swings. I am in it for the long term. I think some here should just relax and enjoy the ride. JMO
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Because this is the Market Action thread, let's recap the various pieces of positive Tesla news that arrived since The Tweet from Elon, which might have an effect on market action:
- Days before the Friday 24 August announcement of Tesla staying public, a consortium of buyers submitted a going-private proposal to Tesla's special committee, evaluated and presented by Goldman Sachs and Silver Lake. (Silver Lake is the fund that took Dell private in 2013.)
- A number of Tesla shareholders publicly outlined their valuation of Tesla stock:
- "Tesla worth much more than $420 according to James Anderson, manager of Baillie Gifford funds and major Tesla shareholder"
- ARK Invest projects Tesla shares to be worth $4,000 by 2023. Catherine Wood, chief investment officer of ARK Invest, urged Elon to keep Tesla public.
- According to an article in the New York Times, parties interested in participating in the offer to buy out Tesla shareholders and go private included European carmakers (possibly Volkswagen and Daimler-Benz), and at least two sovereign funds:
- It has been previously reported that one of the funds is the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, which is managing over 200 billion dollars of assets currently, and which wants to grow to 400 billion dollars by 2020 and 2,000 billion dollars by 2030.
- Speculation: another fund speculated about is the Government Pension Fund of Norway, which is managing about 1 trillion dollars of assets right now (including a stake in Tesla) and is expected to double in size by 2030.
- In a surprise move, after 2.5 weeks of announcing the going-private transaction, Elon Musk rejected the going-private proposal and the Tesla board agreed. Elon cited shareholder concerns and the inability to allow retail investors to continue to invest in Tesla as the main reasons for changing his mind - in addition to the distraction the protracted process would cause.
- Speculation: I suspect part of the reason for changing his mind is that in these 2 weeks he started hearing from shareholders who were happy with Tesla, not just those who were unhappy about Tesla - and the majority of happy shareholders expressed an interest in staying public.
- The Bloomberg tracker is showing good Model 3 production estimates, within Q3 guidance/projections. Tesla has probably already manufactured much of their Q3 target of Model 3's already, and still has 5 more weeks to go.
- Speculation: the Bloomberg tracker has shown last week at a rate of over 6,000 Model 3's manufactured - which would be in line with Elon Musk's prior statements that they'd try to hit the 6k/week rate by the end of August. This has not been confirmed by Tesla yet.
- Elon tweeted a number of happy but cryptic messages that all appear to be connected to profit & loss.
- Speculation: could they have been about Tesla starting to generate net cash, i.e. has Tesla become profitable last week, which he can perhaps see from snapshots of internal Tesla accounting?
- New "Tesla Factory Tour with Elon Musk!" video by Marques Brownlee (MKBHD), famous American YouTuber, best known for his technology-focused videos. This video is showing a happy Elon - the video was made just a day before a controversial NYT phone interview was performed with Elon Musk. The MKBHD video stands in stark contrast with the negative state of mind portrayed in the NYT interview with Elon Musk which did not come with an audio recording or a transcript. (The main author of the NYT interview later on gloated in a tweet about the drop his article caused in the share price of Tesla, which calls into question the impartiality of his reporting.)
- Tesla's Chinese Gigafactory got further backing from Shanghai authorities. Bloomberg report cited sources claiming that multiple big Chinese banks are in negotiations with Tesla to fund the Gigafactory, which is expected to cost 2 billion dollars initially (which is much lower capex than the first Gigafactory).
- Tesla Semi truck was demonstrated to trucking giant JB Hunt, while Elon wrote the following about the design stage of the Tesla Semi: "Most major customers have tried it & love it. Now we need to finish production design & build it".
- Speculation: the Semi has probably moved from an early prototype to a pre-production version.
- Jay Leno loves the Tesla Roadster 2020: “I’ll buy it! I’ll take it!”. Not an unexpected reaction from Jay Leno, but sure helps counter the FUD.
- News we learned shortly before The Tweet, but perhaps not yet fully priced in:
- Two German states are in negotiations with Tesla to attract the European Gigafactory: Rhineland-Palatinate and the Saarland.
- Just before The Tweet the Financial Times reported about the Saudi Arabia PIF's $2b 3-5% stake in Tesla. With the going-private buyout off the table, will the Saudi PIF now increase their stake, or hold? Increasing their stake could be lucrative - if ARK Invest's projections verify then a 10%-20% investment in Tesla alone could achieve much of the Saudi PIF's 2 trillion dollars of assets target by 2030.
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yes, BUT, he has gotten over 27,347 clicks on his Tesla articles, nice, um, "pin" money. I think they get something like $35/article (times 65 articles = ~$2,300+ PLUS at a penny a click another $270+. almost $2,600.or 8 shares of Tesla
On the surface, that makes complete sense to me. However, given the FUD focus of many/nearly all your other posts I can’t trust anything you say without thinking there’s an underlying motive. So I’m not even sure I believe that post — that’s an indication of how much credibility you have left.
As someone who actually drives an Hydrogen FCEV - I am responding honestly with our experience over the last 9 months.
Hydrogen so far is turning out to be a major pain for us, and we live in Southern California with access to 5 different stations between Del Mar and Costa Mesa. We first test drove the Mirai 3 years ago at an promotion event. At the time we were shown a map of the existing hydrogen stations and the ‘approved and up coming’ stations. We test drove the Honda Clarity FCV about and year later, we were shown a similar map. We leased the Clarity about end of 2017 because the deal that Honda is offering on that car cannot be beaten.
Well, getting hydrogen regularly is a pain. The number of hydrogen FCV cars have increased dramatically but the number of stations have not changed; if anything the one in Laguna Hills off El Toro shut down. There are times when all 5 of our accessible stations are down. Sometimes, the stations have gas in the morning and by afternoon they have already run out. We have text alerts and sometimes have to drop everything and go fill gas when the stations show good availability. Even more annoying, if there are a couple of cars in front of us at the station, the tank will NOT fill completely. It has to do with need to freeze the gas in between filling and if the pumps are used immediately the refrigeration system cannot keep up with the filling rate. With the current heat wake, this problem is just worsened.
The Clarity is a fabulous car, drives beautifully and really good speed and acceleration. Typical for an electric car. Very small trunk and storage capacity, but not a big issue for us. But there doesn’t seem to be much improvement in the H2 infrastructure.
About 4 months after the Clarity we got out Model 3, frankly earlier than we had expected. The biggest advantage of the BEV vs FCV, if you run out of fuel, all you have to do for the electric car is to bring it home or to any electric plug. With the FCV, if there is no gas, your car is dead with no option to refuel till the station gets its gas refill. Now we find ourselves wishing we were not stuck in the 3-year lease for the Clarity. If not, we would seriously be looking to put our name back for another Model 3.
Hydrogen so far is turning out to be a major pain for us, and we live in Southern California with access to 5 different stations between Del Mar and Costa Mesa. We first test drove the Mirai 3 years ago at an promotion event. At the time we were shown a map of the existing hydrogen stations and the ‘approved and up coming’ stations. We test drove the Honda Clarity FCV about and year later, we were shown a similar map. We leased the Clarity about end of 2017 because the deal that Honda is offering on that car cannot be beaten.
Well, getting hydrogen regularly is a pain. The number of hydrogen FCV cars have increased dramatically but the number of stations have not changed; if anything the one in Laguna Hills off El Toro shut down. There are times when all 5 of our accessible stations are down. Sometimes, the stations have gas in the morning and by afternoon they have already run out. We have text alerts and sometimes have to drop everything and go fill gas when the stations show good availability. Even more annoying, if there are a couple of cars in front of us at the station, the tank will NOT fill completely. It has to do with need to freeze the gas in between filling and if the pumps are used immediately the refrigeration system cannot keep up with the filling rate. With the current heat wake, this problem is just worsened.
The Clarity is a fabulous car, drives beautifully and really good speed and acceleration. Typical for an electric car. Very small trunk and storage capacity, but not a big issue for us. But there doesn’t seem to be much improvement in the H2 infrastructure.
About 4 months after the Clarity we got out Model 3, frankly earlier than we had expected. The biggest advantage of the BEV vs FCV, if you run out of fuel, all you have to do for the electric car is to bring it home or to any electric plug. With the FCV, if there is no gas, your car is dead with no option to refuel till the station gets its gas refill. Now we find ourselves wishing we were not stuck in the 3-year lease for the Clarity. If not, we would seriously be looking to put our name back for another Model 3.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Yup, you're right... it is rude. I tend to get that way with people that rehash old arguments for the benefit of gaining ammunition for his own thesis on other sites.
If you are interested in his viewpoints there are countless articles on Seeking Alpha he has written that will tell you exactly how he feels.
Dan
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
So great to hear from someone with real world experience! Thank you for sharing. I had heard about the refrigeration factor but didn't know it could be one of the most important limiting factors in real life.
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Thumper
Active Member
That's it, I put the bum and the queen of the desert on Ignore.
Wow, so he's a prolific bullshitter.
sundaymorning
Active Member
sundaymorning
Active Member
If you and I had hard facts in our hands, then there would be no need to waste our time here reading through hundreds of posts, would we? Think before you post.
No facts to support your conclusion/statement...
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Can Tesla semi and Nikola not coexist? Why does it seem like “all or nothing” with shorts for their thesis?
I find that personally insulting. HA! lol
I write on facts I find and try to make sense of them. I even put my calculations right in the articles for anyone to read and analyze. No one has been able to refute my numbers since they are not mine. They are Teslas. But be my guest to go and do your own analysis.
I have said before the narrative in the press has turned decidely negative in the last year. I honestly cannot explain it. If there is some covert mission underway I am certainly not a part of it.
But I can tell you when I first started writing about Tesla there were dozens of "bulls" writing as well on SA. They are mostly gone. When I have PM'd them to ask why, they seem to have moved to other stocks. I enjoyed the back and forth discussions and articles responding to other's articles. As all of you can see my writing has greatly diminished in quantity. Mostly due to my available time but also there is not enough bullish material to respond to so the fun is pretty much gone. It is hard to have a conversation from both sides of the fence if no one is on the other side. When I do write an upbeat, suggestions type article I get beat up from both sides.
Has your readership increased or decreased on SA? I don’t read SA articles any longer.
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