TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Sudre]

The shorts have been successful at holding the share price around the $300's which is below whatever number is required to make the convertible bonds actually convert.....

I don't think Tesla plans on converting the bonds to shares.
What happens if the price is under the convert and Tesla has the cash?

 

[neroden]

AirPods alone prove this false. I’m using mine right now and after a year I still consider them the best Apple product since iPad. It may not be obvious unless you try them yourself.

To continue the rant about investing in what you know: All earbuds are disrecommended by doctors -- they have characteristics which tend to cause people to turn the volume up too high and damage their hearing. As an audiophile, I require studio-style headphones. Maybe this earbud stuff is super popular, but it's popular among people whose tastes I find incomprehensible.

I also don't invest in cigarette companies or beer companies, and not for moral reasons, and not because I think they won't make money (obviously, addictive products will continue to sell). I stay away because my total lack of comprehension of their customers and business model (*not* having an addictive personality myself) means I can't tell if they're doing something wrong competitively.

I stayed away from Netflix stock until I started using Netflix *and* they spontaneously fixed several of the things which were driving me nuts about it (without me complaining). I now understand how they're going to continue to take over the world of entertainment, so I can now invest and I think I will recognize when they start screwing up.

I've been reading _Reminiscinces of a Stock Operator_, and one recurring theme is that you can't be successful by copying someone else's successful trading or investment choices. Unless you are using your *own system*, you're missing the information they have which will let them know when to get into the trade and when to get out.

 

[AlMc]

@neroden : To continue off topic weekend and investing in what we like/know: If you do not mooing sharing....what are your top five stock investments by dollar amount.

Mine: AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, ROP, then TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess this means that Apples stock will take a 20% hit Tuesday?

Why? Did Elon tweet about it?

 

[Causalien]

"Reminiscinces of a Stock Operator" should be required reading for everyone who posts here.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I hear a lot of comparisons between Tesla and Apple. Other than a charismatic CEO (none better than Elon and Jobs) and future forward must have product (M3 and iPhone), and direct sales model, I see little resemblance.

Tesla principle product is highly complex EVs starting at +-$50,000. Apple principal product are smart phone starting at +-$500.

Tesla employs production in US. Apple subs all production to China using cheap labour.

Tesla produces >75,000 EVs per quarter. Apple produces >77,000,000 iPhones per quarter.

Don't get me wrong, I like Apple products, am typing on one now, but the comparisons should stop. Apple stopped innovating the day Steve Jobs died on October 5th, 2011, yet AAPL has increased 227% since then. All simply on redefining their master products, iMac introduced August 1998, and iPhone introduced June 2007. They still have not entered the living room and I still can't even buy an Apple printer or Apple TV. Since AAPL hit $1T market cap on August 2nd, 2018 they have gained an additional $99B, almost twice as much as TSLA's current valuation.

Tesla on the other hand is seeking World domination of most all mobile transportation including end to end ecosystem of infrastructure, renewable energy products and power utilities, and apparently now...surfboards. Surf's up!

Daniel

 

[EVNow]

@neroden : To continue off topic weekend and investing in what we like/know: If you do not mooing sharing....what are your top five stock investments by dollar amount.

Mine: AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, ROP, then TSLA.

I've exactly 2 stocks. Rest are ETFs. MSFT & TSLA.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Is the price of TSLA making you blue? Nobody said being green would be easy, just ask Kermit.
Still scratching my head on the latest drag back to $300. All the negative bias articles from reputable? news outlets. I just don't get it. I must be drinking that Tesla Kool-Aid. And at those times, like today, went with the family for an hour long ride in our M3, and then I get it. I truly get it. The others will come around. Time will surely tell. My coolest moment was passing another red M3 with a large red canoe on top going to cottage country. Only toping that would have been a Tesla surfboard. Priceless.

I don't normally make price predictions, however IMOH I believe $300 will hold as the bottom and we are in for major upturn.

 

[EVNow]

I've been looking at LEAPS instead of the stock. So, have been reading about LEAPS.

The general guidance seems to be
- Buy ITM (or DITM) options with high delta expiring 2 years from now
- After a year, sell the option and buy a 2 years away option again. i.e. with 1 year still left in the old option.

Does this guidance still make sense with Tesla - given the high IV & premiums for LEAPS ? Even '20 Jan $300 is $71 which is about 1/4th the stock price. This means the leverage is only 4 - instead of 10 or more for some stocks or indexes.

 

[Revhappy2]

I've been looking at LEAPS instead of the stock. So, have been reading about LEAPS.

The general guidance seems to be
- Buy ITM (or DITM) options with high delta expiring 2 years from now
- After a year, sell the option and buy a 2 years away option again. i.e. with 1 year still left in the old option.

Does this guidance still make sense with Tesla - given the high IV & premiums for LEAPS ? Even '20 Jan $300 is $71 which is about 1/4th the stock price. This means the leverage is only 4 - instead of 10 or more for some stocks or indexes.

You can also sell PUTs of the same strike which is of the same premium in case of TSLA, so you get back the $71 you paid. But I guess, your margin requirements will be higher, still lower compared to holding the stock outright. When you buy LEAP only, it is kind of hedged long, you wont lose more than $71, even if the stock goes to zero.

 

[HG Wells]

Does Tesla have any major suppliers based out of Canada ?
Looks like Trump is going to nix nafta for Canada but keep it for Mexico.

 

[Joe F]

Entire industry’s feel threatened by the eventual move to EV’s. Big money, and the perceived threat to their livelihood is at stake in their minds. I also feel Tesla owners are perceived as elitist by those who can barely make ends meet, let alone afford a Tesla.

The hatred online and in the real world is partially if not mostly due to the above I feel. A quick search shows a formidable army of those who wish to see Tesla fail, and it’s not just the shorts and their minions:

“The UAW has more than 400,000 active members and more than 580,000 retired members in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. There are more than 600 local unions in the UAW. The UAW currently has 1,150 contracts with some 1,600 employers in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.”

Ask yourself, if you were in their shoes, how would you feel?

While there are more who look forward to owning a Tesla, the numbers who hate Tesla are legion.

I don’t know how to educate them, and for the haters, no amount of test drives will convince them that there’s a better way. The next few years are going to be interesting to be part of.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR -

I’m going to go out on a limb here, but -

I think there is a high probability of there being one or a few dozen Apple Corp / AAPL forums somewhere on the internet.

Words to the wise, folks. As well as to the rest of you. “Weekend” does not mean “smorgasbord”.

 

[EVNow]

“The UAW has more than 400,000 active members and more than 580,000 retired members in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. There are more than 600 local unions in the UAW. The UAW currently has 1,150 contracts with some 1,600 employers in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.”

UAW is not our enemy. Afterall exactly the same politicians who support EVs, support UAW as well.

Look out for fossil fuel industry and their political supporters.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

It seems like many (most?) people have been counting Tesla out of the FSD race. If this initial release is compelling it could change perceptions significantly -- it all depends on how good it is. Karpathy's work on standard EAP makes me cautiously optimistic.

Investors being able to visualize a path toward FSD could be huge given the massive size of the market. On the other hand, I expect the FUD to be turned up to "11" -- Tesla needs to get out in front of the safety story with solid data in the upcoming quarterly update, etc.

This news just caused me to edit my design and add FSD.

Today’s increase in stock price was largely due to Elon’s comment on Full Self Driving capabilities being release in August.

Autopilot update and FSD will be big news in August.

Looking back, but a quick reminder of another missed projection from Mr. Musk: "FSD features in August."

We're in September now. No such features exist. Promise was made less than 3 months ago.

 

[bdy0627]

They've lost, and they know it.

Every single bear/short argument has been shown to be false.

There's nothing left except FUD and lies.

And they know it.

The desperation on Twitter is palpable.

I disagree. Many of them think this thing is on the verge of collapse. It's just a matter of time. Lots of FUD and lies left too. They aren't going anywhere.

 

[bdy0627]

let take example of Doug Field.
I am sure he is a very good talented engineer which does and will continue with doing amazing work.

In 2016 he took over of Model 3 program.
He misjudged initial difficulties and issued overoptimistic prognoses reflected in Q1,Q2 and Q3 2017 reports. He missed issues in GF1 completely, missed required adjustment of Fremont GA3 line (famous gaps normal due to unpredictability of idealized design transfer to hard reality), when GA3 stalled thanks to misaligned robot stations Musk took over.
So let compare: DF 1.5 years: from 0 to 20% of the production capacity. Very respectful achievement which would earn him place in any company
EM 3months: from 20% to 80%, fixing quality problems in the process, adding extra line with 20% capacity production.
In another 2 months streamlining conveyor line.

It is amazing what Elon is able to get done, but I find it hard to believe that primarily Doug was to blame for the difficulties ramping. More likely, there was generally a lot of inexperience with high level mass production of vehicles with the upper level management team. Even Elon mentioned how they focused too much on Powerpoint production, not realizing how stupid they were being. Having more management experienced in mass production of vehicles probably would have helped.

 

[JRP3]

UAW is not our enemy.

If they attach themselves to Tesla and make the production less efficient then yes, they are the enemy.

 

[JRP3]

We're in September now. No such features exist. Promise was made less than 3 months ago.

Bah, 3 months isn't even late in Elon time. Almost comical how weak your efforts are, and that you obviously think you can shake some of us longs loose with your FUD. As with all your cohorts over the years you're outmatched and facing a losing battle.

 

[EVNow]

If they attach themselves to Tesla and make the production less efficient then yes, they are the enemy.

That's a weird comment. Apparently, you want slave labor ?

Every OEM has labor unions (in EU and Japan) and that doesn't make them less efficient.

ps : I should add, from a larger society perspective, the largest risk we have for Tesla (and other companies) is political instability because of deep income inequality. It would be wise for us to support ways to reduce income inequality.