TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anticitizen13.7]

Looking back, but a quick reminder of another missed projection from Mr. Musk: "FSD features in August."

We're in September now. No such features exist. Promise was made less than 3 months ago.

Anyone who knows anything about software engineering will know that "promises" on when a software project will be done, are essentially worthless, no matter who makes them.

History is littered with examples:

1. MacOS Copeland. Never delivered by Apple.
2. Windows Vista. 3 years late. Microsoft originally planned for project Longhorn to RTM in late 2003. It didn't happen until late 2006. Even then it was sort of a cluster.
3. Diablo III. Announced with great fanfare by Blizzard Entertainment in June 2008. Released nearly 4 years later, in May 2012.

In the near term, it is immaterial to Tesla's stock price whether Tesla delivers FSD features a few months late. Whether it matters in the long term, I think depends on what the competition from Google and others bring to the table So far, it's not looking great all around.

 

[bdy0627]

I guess this means that Apples stock will take a 20% hit Tuesday?
LOL

Nah, TSLA will take this hit since it's now completely clear that AAPL is coming after their market. For each Apple car crash, TSLA will drop. I'm saying this sarcastically, but I honestly would not be surprised at this since the headlines will not be about the crash but about AAPL coming after the autonomous car market.

 

[EVNow]

You can also sell PUTs of the same strike which is of the same premium in case of TSLA, so you get back the $71 you paid. But I guess, your margin requirements will be higher, still lower compared to holding the stock outright. When you buy LEAP only, it is kind of hedged long, you wont lose more than $71, even if the stock goes to zero.

My broker doesn't let me sell puts on margin since I "don't have enough experience".

BTW, I see that "with EAPS you won't lose more than the premium i.e. what you invest" in all articles. That's actually true of stocks as well (and the basic idea behind limited liability companies). The difference is just in leverage.

 

[Revhappy2]

My broker doesn't let me sell puts on margin since I "don't have enough experience".

BTW, I see that "with EAPS you won't lose more than the premium i.e. what you invest" in all articles. That's actually true of stocks as well (and the basic idea behind limited liability companies). The difference is just in leverage.

I guess, it is then a matter of what strike price of CALL you must choose.

Sorry I am noob when it comes to options, so I cant guide you, maybe you can ask this in the advanced options thread or maybe in an excel sheet writedown the various risk reward scenarios, for example 400 CALL has a much lower premium. If you are expecting the stock price to end at say 1000 in 2 years, then it doesnt matter much whether you buy 300 CALL or the 400 CALL, but if the stock price ends at say 200, then you lose more money with the 300 CALL vs the 400 CALL, etc.

Since Elon Musk indicated 420 as the go private figure, it looks most fair value price for the stock and I think you should buy a CALL with a strike closer to this rather than ATM. My opinion only, clearly not an advice.

 

[RABaby]

That's a weird comment. Apparently, you want slave labor ?

Every OEM has labor unions (in EU and Japan) and that doesn't make them less efficient.

ps : I should add, from a larger society perspective, the largest risk we have for Tesla (and other companies) is political instability because of deep income inequality. It would be wise for us to support ways to reduce income inequality.

You can't compare the UAW to JAW. UAW is a separate entity and its leaders are not unlike the leader of any for profit company or organization in that these leaders seek to enrich themselves more than those they represent. JAW is a company union where the workers and management are partners and seek to do what is best for everyone.

The culture of Japan is unlike that in this country. First and foremost is respect and Trump is the leading example of how America fails in that regard. Without respect, you don't have cooperation or teamwork.

That doesn't mean I oppose unions in this country, but those I was in did not serve me as a worker. They were often complicit with management in fighting against the changes or improvements the workers sought. That is how it is in this country. Those unions that are needed are opposed by those who do want slave labor. Think farm workers and garment workers.

Europe is also an entirely different culture. Americans are brainwashed about how good they supposedly have it. It's like auctions where there is some schill who keeps encouraging opposing bidders to raise the price and prevent them from talking to each other in order to come to an understanding and minimize the extra either party would have to pay. Not to mention the tempo the schills are using to add anxiety to the bidders. It's somewhere between dishonest and unethical, but entirely legal. It's what Trump does to rally his troops.

I think Tesla has more of a JAW relationship with its workers. But I don't work there so I can't speak with any authority or knowledge.

 

[Off Shore]

UAW is not our enemy. Afterall exactly the same politicians who support EVs, support UAW as well.

Look out for fossil fuel industry and their political supporters.

An un-unionized Tesla is, however, the UAW's enemy. And the UAW is certainly attacking Tesla in a variety of ways.

 

[Joe F]

UAW is not our enemy. Afterall exactly the same politicians who support EVs, support UAW as well.

Look out for fossil fuel industry and their political supporters.

Try parking your Tesla in a Ford or GM plants visitor parking lot. Let us know how that works out for you after a day.

And, fossil fuel industries are part of the “entire industry’s” I mentioned. I thought that would not have needed to be said, and was a given.

The FUD is a concerted effort to affect TSLA by shaking out the weak hands IMHO. Ignore the noise. These are desperate people who will stop at nothing to try and stop Tesla from becoming viable.

Just look at the vile Twitter responses Bonnie has gotten. There’s a war against Tesla and anyone that supports Tesla, and it’s ugly. Ignore the noise, and they will not win.

On the bright side, the word is out there, and Tesla is a brand that is admired by many that don’t see the ugly side of the war against us. What they see are beautiful cars that they aspire to own.

Markets fluctuations are to be expected. Watch for blood in the streets and dry powder always helps.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looking back, but a quick reminder of another missed projection from Mr. Musk: "FSD features in August."

We're in September now. No such features exist. Promise was made less than 3 months ago.

Patience grasshopper.

Tesla Model 3 owner claims ‘Autopilot saved his life’ by swerving away in near-miss caught on video

He never said it was going to be rolled out all at ounce. It’s being done in increments. Most of us hear are expecting end of August, Tesla time. Now where are the competitors that were suppose to come out with EVs in 2015? They’re 3 years late...

 

[Teslie]

Try parking your Tesla in a Ford or GM plants visitor parking lot. Let us know how that works out for you after a day.

Don‘t spread idiotic FUD here. Do you have any real negative experience to report parking your car there ? And in this case, post the police report please.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla registered more than 1,480 new VINS on August 31st. Highest is is above 110k now. I’m seeing Model 3s everywhere I go in Southern California. On average I see a Model 3 every 5-10 minutes.

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter

Highest vin reported is above 100,000.

Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

 

[dc_h]

An un-unionized Tesla is, however, the UAW's enemy. And the UAW is certainly attacking Tesla in a variety of ways.

A union focused on improving worker skills and best practices mfg would be great. UAW focus is on job rules that are highly anti-iteration and innovation. A trade union more focused on skills and safer working conditions in partnership with mgmt sounds great. I also don’t see UAW filing that role. I don’t think Elon is anti employee, but the UAW thing does create an added enemy.

 

[EVMeister]

Don‘t spread idiotic FUD here. Do you have any real negative experience to report parking your car there ? And in this case, post the police report please.

A short calling somebody out for spreading FUD and asking them to back their words up with solid facts? Seems a bit hypocritical, no?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So thought I'd take a few hours off from Tesland to watch Deadpool 2. Seriously, I get it!

 

[cheshire cat]

That's a weird comment. Apparently, you want slave labor ?

Every OEM has labor unions (in EU and Japan) and that doesn't make them less efficient.

ps : I should add, from a larger society perspective, the largest risk we have for Tesla (and other companies) is political instability because of deep income inequality. It would be wise for us to support ways to reduce income inequality.

Don't make the mistake of lumping ALL unions in the EU together there's roughly Germany and most of the rest, very different kettles of fish

 

[Mike117]

I bozght some 250$ puts and Sold 400$ calls. Holding 100 shares currebcur but I guess Elon ****ed up really Bad in the last 3 months. Without further financing in January 19, TSLA will Run out of Cash hence mark bankrupt unfortunately

 

[winfield100]

Entire industry’s feel threatened by the eventual move to EV’s. Big money, and the perceived threat to their livelihood is at stake in their minds.

You really don't need to educate the elders. They will either have flexible minds and "see the future" or not. Look or read about how kids under 25 react to Tesla or EV's. That demographic. Even better, the 6-15 years old demographic.
Then go back and look at the 2 photos of Times Square in New York city, 1900 and 1913. Barely a decade. Horses and buggies, then horseless cars.
Maybe take documentary photographs of car dealerships and repair facilities and consider what will be there in 15 years.
I remember 4 competing gas stations at 1 intersection. All gone.
The question should more be, what jobs if any can the UAW retrain for, as this electric tsunami hits. The world is leaving us behind.

 

[waterloo42]

You really don't need to educate the elders. They will either have flexible minds and "see the future" or not. Look or read about how kids under 25 react to Tesla or EV's. That demographic. Even better, the 6-15 years old demographic.
Then go back and look at the 2 photos of Times Square in New York city, 1900 and 1913. Barely a decade. Horses and buggies, then horseless cars.
Maybe take documentary photographs of car dealerships and repair facilities and consider what will be there in 15 years.
I remember 4 competing gas stations at 1 intersection. All gone.
The question should more be, what jobs if any can the UAW retrain for, as this electric tsunami hits. The world is leaving us behind.

Totally agree! I was driving our Model 3 in the middle of nowhere at a provincial park last weekend and as I drove past a small herd of teens on bikes, I heard "whoa a Model 3!" and "that's totally sick!" The number of times younger kids and teens come up and ask about the car and knowing already that it's electric tells me there is enormous brand recognition and interest in EVs that will show up in future sales or as they convince their parents now to look into one for their next family car.

 

[Starno]

Just a few seconds but still...

 

[cheshire cat]

You really don't need to educate the elders. They will either have flexible minds and "see the future" or not. Look or read about how kids under 25 react to Tesla or EV's. That demographic. Even better, the 6-15 years old demographic.
Then go back and look at the 2 photos of Times Square in New York city, 1900 and 1913. Barely a decade. Horses and buggies, then horseless cars.
Maybe take documentary photographs of car dealerships and repair facilities and consider what will be there in 15 years.
I remember 4 competing gas stations at 1 intersection. All gone.
The question should more be, what jobs if any can the UAW retrain for, as this electric tsunami hits. The world is leaving us behind.

Even over here where Teslas' are not that common the recognition by the under twelves is amazing As opposed to the old guy showing interest who kept asking to just start her up "so I can hear it running".

 

[Fact Checking]

I bozght some 250$ puts and Sold 400$ calls. Holding 100 shares currebcur but I guess Elon ****ed up really Bad in the last 3 months. Without further financing in January 19, TSLA will Run out of Cash hence mark bankrupt unfortunately

I hate to throw cold water on your investment thesis, but the scenario you are outlining is not supported by the numbers:

• Tesla's Q2 "cash burn" rate already slowed down significantly, despite only about 2k/week M3 deliveries. Cash dropped from 2.6b to 2.2b.
• In Q3, according to conservative modeling that assumes 4k/week deliveries, cash would increase to 2.9b
• In Q4, under similarly conservative assumptions, cash would increase to 3.4 billion. By the end of Q1 2019, to around 4 billion dollars or more.
• The convertible notes that mature in March 2019 have a face value of $920m.
• Even in the worst possible cash flow scenario, if Tesla pays the convertible notes fully in cash, Tesla is still going to have more than 2-3 billion dollars of cash left and will generate about 0.5-1.0 billion dollars of cash per quarter in 2019. No bankwuptcy and no raise of capital required.

Under what scenario can you see Tesla running out of cash?