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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Tesla's Q2 "cash burn" rate already slowed down significantly, despite only about 2k/week M3 deliveries. Cash dropped from 2.6b to 2.2b.

This is dangerously misleading, and I caution bulls reading this. @Fact Checking is misrepresenting cash burn by referencing the balance sheet.

"Cash burn" does not solely look at cash on the balance sheet. Tesla's accounts payable ballooned in Q2.

It is true that Tesla did slow their cash burn from -1.05B in Q1 to -739 million in Q2.

So, even though cash went down by 400M, they burned 739M.

To put that in perspective, selling 30k more cars over Q2 at a 15k contribution only closes the cash burn gap by 450M. And that's pretty generous.
 
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This is dangerously misleading[...]

Tesla's accounts payable ballooned in Q2.

Actually, you’re dangerously misleading. Accounts payable grew slower than revenue in Q2, meaning it shrank as a percentage of revenue.

And that’s with revenue (deliveries) intentionally suppressed to avoid triggering the tax credit phaseout in Q2. With deliveries exceeding production in Q3, the shrinking of accounts payable as a percentage of revenue will accelerate further.
 
This is dangerously misleading, and I caution bulls reading this. @Fact Checking is misrepresenting cash burn by referencing the balance sheet.

"Cash burn" does not solely look at cash on the balance sheet. Tesla's accounts payable ballooned in Q2.

It is true that Tesla did slow their cash burn from -1.05B in Q1 to -739 million in Q2.

So, even though cash went down by 400M, they burned 739M.

To put that in perspective, selling 30k more cars over Q2 at a 15k contribution only closes the cash burn gap by 450M. And that's pretty generous.

You want it to be one way, but it’s the other way.

 
ps : I should add, from a larger society perspective, the largest risk we have for Tesla (and other companies) is political instability because of deep income inequality. It would be wise for us to support ways to reduce income inequality.

From a narrower perspective—overall business profits—reducing income inequality improves profits while improving demand for products based upon their popularity. I may not live long enough to realize it, but in a few years TSLA will, indeed, reach $1000 or multiples thereof. Then I would sell considerably richer than now and invest much, much more conservatively, like the rich. I would want a considerable buffer in safer, renter like stocks, or bonds with lower yield and less contribution to investment in the economy. Our wealth manager already anticipates this need but for different reasons—a preternaturally high market.

One of the best ways to stimulate overall demand is raising the minimum wage and/or investing in education, particularly at the Community College and K-12 levels. Those are longer term investments, not an immediate fix or sugar high as our wealth manager puts it. How backward looking is Congress with the recent tax bill? Now it is looking for ways to reduce benefits like Social Security and Medicare to pay for it. Already the cola for Social Security has been reduced and recently the cola for non-defense government employees has been axed by the White House. Will that increase demand for cars, etc.? At the same time it increases the inequality gap by lowering the bottom. A twofold fix—like heroin. Better than sugar!

Business thinking first principles: Stick with a good product, improve or change it constantly, tap into new markets or grow the existing one as much as possible. The opposite is achieved by bribing Congress for a short term fix. A great economy like China's, Korea's, Taiwan's, pays attention to the future. Can you get more backward looking than pushing subsidy for coal?

In the fifties when I was a freshman at MIT my roommate was from Iran. His family was super wealthy. Dad had the Mercedes dealership for all of the country, a minor investment, but really major holdings in rug manufacturing, etc. A truly cultured man, along with other foreign business leaders, he spoke ill of his U.S. counterparts, not only because they had very short term thinking, but they were dull at conversation—so narrowly focused on money and money ways of making money. This was 30 years prior to the Harvard Business Review's, "Managing our way to decline."

MAGA is a great campaign slogan. Therefore by fooling voters, like most, it was a fake campaign. Campaigning is different from governing, so blame the messenger as fake news when your promise is actualized as MADA. Make America decline again.
 
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@Joe F
dude, i have been alive since the 1940's, just not an elder yet tho. (my "avatar pic is 40 years old)

look at the Tech analysis thread and explain the divergence of the Accum/Distrib line and price action from 4/1/2018.
It's like somebodie(s) are artificially holding down the SP even tho people are slowly nibbling/buying/accumulating the stock

especially since 7/2/2018. 60 million shares have traded hands at slightly higher prices than lower, yet the stock price is hanging there and actually down
(look at 6/21 to 7/2, SP declined ~$50, A/D line sharp down)
Usually the A/D line and stock price more or less follow, but they have diverged!!
It's like a spring is being wound tighter and tighter
Hey Winfield,
I really like your A/D line, it explains much. But why the negative sign? It comes from the subtraction in the over part of the quote, which is opposite to the lower part. Not a big deal since the Y axis is also negative, but a little bit confusing to simple minds like mine. And your source is like sorcery to me. Still grateful! :)
 
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Riminder:

Tesla July car sales were massive compared to every other mid size lux car manufacturer.

As a matter of fact, they all sold less cars year over year, they were in decline where Tesla was in significant, significant ascent.

That is a very scary chart if you’re not Tesla.

I, too, would want Elon out. And, have Tesla demand slowed with a huge counter Tesla media campaign.
 
In case you're really that naive, I'll politely explain to you why those don't have to be paid off.

(1) Much of the accounts payable is balances with suppliers for car parts: it's going to stay constant or grow. Tesla's suppliers ask for payment 60 or 90 days after parts delivery. This isn't changing. The only way Tesla would have to "pay it all off" would be if suppliers started demanding all their money before delivery, which is not happening. Yes, Tesla has to pay for the parts after 60 days, but they also receive new shipments of parts and don't have to pay for them for 60 days, so this loan "rolls over". Tesla will have enough cash to handle it if some suppliers start demanding shorter payment terms, and it's implausible for all of them to.
(2) Since you're looking at liabilities and not just accounts receivable, there are also substantial deferred revenue elements there: an accounting allowance for the idea that Tesla owes customers money if they don't deliver the car which the customer paid for. These are simply erased from the balance sheet, i.e. Tesla never pays a penny, when the car is delivered.

Learn to read a balance sheet before commenting again.

tenor.gif
 
It is amazing what Elon is able to get done, but I find it hard to believe that primarily Doug was to blame for the difficulties ramping. More likely, there was generally a lot of inexperience with high level mass production of vehicles with the upper level management team. Even Elon mentioned how they focused too much on Powerpoint production, not realizing how stupid they were being. Having more management experienced in mass production of vehicles probably would have helped.
I don't blame Doug obviously. If I would make fun of somebody I would pull Audi E-tron heroes ( first attempts in 2012) not talking about plenty of other attempts to start EV production.
(Keep eyes on the latest arrival: chinese BMW daughter called Byton).
The mistakes Doug and his team made were typical, and are the norm. The norm not because people working in the industry are stupid, but because the production cycles are long enough to erase ramp experience, so people starting new product are newbs even after of 20+ years of experience and few cycles on their shoulders. To stay fresh one needs to keep helicopter vision while digging small boring details in their everyday work. It is a special skill. To mitigate reboots problems big corporations like Daimler have special ramp specialists, and even can share them with "concurrents".
A TMS member used argument which was repeated ad nauseam in the mass-media that Musk sucks as a manager and should give space to real professionals.
I've made obvious comparison of a real case. that's it.
 
From a narrower perspective—overall business profits—reducing income inequality improves profits while improving demand for products based upon their popularity. I may not live long enough to realize it, but in a few years TSLA will, indeed, reach $1000 or multiples thereof. Then I would sell considerably richer than now and invest much, much more conservatively, like the rich. I would want a considerable buffer in safer, renter like stocks, or bonds with lower yield and less contribution to investment in the economy. Our wealth manager already anticipates this need but for different reasons—a preternaturally high market.

One of the best ways to stimulate overall demand is raising the minimum wage and/or investing in education, particularly at the Community College and K-12 levels. Those are longer term investments, not an immediate fix or sugar high as our wealth manager puts it. How backward looking is Congress with the recent tax bill? Now it is looking for ways to reduce benefits like Social Security and Medicare to pay for it. Already the cola for Social Security has been reduced and recently the cola for non-defense government employees has been axed by the White House. Will that increase demand for cars, etc.? At the same time it increases the inequality gap by lowering the bottom. A twofold fix—like heroin. Better than sugar!

Business thinking first principles: Stick with a good product, improve or change it constantly, tap into new markets or grow the existing one as much as possible. The opposite is achieved by bribing Congress for a short term fix. A great economy like China's, Korea's, Taiwan's, pays attention to the future. Can you get more backward looking than pushing subsidy for coal?

In the fifties when I was a freshman at MIT my roommate was from Iran. His family was super wealthy. Dad had the Mercedes dealership for all of the country, a minor investment, but really major holdings in rug manufacturing, etc. A truly cultured man, along with other foreign business leaders, he spoke ill of his U.S. counterparts, not only because they had very short term thinking, but they were dull at conversation—so narrowly focused on money and money ways of making money. This was 30 years prior to the Harvard Business Review's, "Managing our way to decline."

MAGA is a great campaign slogan. Therefore by fooling voters, like most, it was a fake campaign. Campaigning is different from governing, so blame the messenger as fake news when your promise is actualized as MADA. Make America decline again.

Addendum to above with the same point.

In the summer of 1957 I worked as a management trainee at Bethlehem Steel's Lackawanna Plant near Buffalo, New York. Part of the program included meetings with the plant manager, the biggest local boss. He told us of a meeting he had with counterparts where a vice president of the company asked them, "What is our business?" All answered "steel" or something similar. Then the VP gave them the right answer: "Our business is making money." Some time later the Lackawanna Plant was closed. Later, Bethlehem steel finally went bankrupt in 2001. I was curious about Tesla's plant at Buffalo, at first whether it was on my old employer's land—then reputedly the fourth largest steel plant in the world. Apparently Tesla is located on land vacated by Republic Steel. Hard to tell when that plant went belly up. The company is now owned by a Mexican firm.

Strange. All the Wikipedia accounts of these businesses failing talk about foreign competition, the decline of manufacturing, etc. Nothing about management focus on short term gain. I admit losing money is not fun; we all have to eat and I do like having much more than half our wealth in capital gains. In investing it really matters what you invest in as we all know in FUD focus on lack of profits. Compare Tesla to some traditional auto manufacturers. VW seems to be hedging its bets having learned from the potential of Tesla Internet.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times
 
That's a weird comment. Apparently, you want slave labor ?

Every OEM has labor unions (in EU and Japan) and that doesn't make them less efficient.

ps : I should add, from a larger society perspective, the largest risk we have for Tesla (and other companies) is political instability because of deep income inequality. It would be wise for us to support ways to reduce income inequality.
Elon and I are working on this problem. I am down about a $500k on shares bought following the short burn in 3 months and going private tweets. Not sure this reduced inequality by bringing anyone up, but it definitely brought me down, so sorta the same effect :(
 
FSD will require the upgrade, anyone who pays for FSD (at time of purchase or after) will get the HW upgrade if they are on 2.x HW.

It's the AFTER point that I haven't seen this clarity on. The tweet and other 'comments' have said BOUGHT, not BUY. I know I'm splitting hairs here with tense but if they really wanted to say that any one buys FSD either before or after purchase will ultimately get the necessary 3.0HW for free - why not say it? Sure, after purchase these things are between 1000$-2000$ premium (and have always carried a post purchase purchase premium, but it doesn't seem as if that was to pay for additional HW in the past.

So, for those who didn't buy FSD at time of purchase (we don't know EXACTLY how many this is, but pre-purchase rates of FSD I think are only in the high single digits from some of the tracking spreadsheets), IF we buy it afterwards for 4000-5000$, is the hardware going to be "free"?
 
Strange. All the Wikipedia accounts of these businesses failing talk about foreign competition, the decline of manufacturing, etc. Nothing about management focus on short term gain. I admit losing money is not fun; we all have to eat and I do like having much more than half of our wealth in capital gains. In investing it really matters what you invest in as we all know in FUD focus on lack of profits. Compare Tesla to some traditional auto manufacturers. VW seems to be hedging its bets having learned from the potential of Tesla Internet.

Not directly related to the above point, but you do state that you like to eat and enjoy having capital gains. If I remember correctly, you would not qualify to hold stock in TSLA in the traditional way since you are not an accredited investor. So that raises the question as to why you would have a wealth manager when everything you have reported about that person is that the nomenclature is not accurate and in fact, what you have employed is a wealth destroyer.

The two things I believe I remember about this person is the advice against holding TSLA in a disproportionate percentage to your holdings and the decision to sell NAVB at $17. Now that might be totally appropriate for those who follow traditional philosophy of investing, but traditional styles only gets someone to huddle with the herd. To make money from capital gains, something you seem to enjoy, one has to go outside the recommended approaches. In some cases, that could just be understanding all the options of how to make a buck in the market and there are plenty here who offer ideas. The other is to push the chips in on something one believes has undiscovered promise and a chance to survive. That involves risk and some don't manage it well.

You have made the right decisions but allowed someone else to override them. I don't understand this. Nor do I understand your need for a wealth manager/advisor. Does this person charge you money? Is there some legal requirement imposed by someone because of your age or other aspects that deem you not mentally fit to make your own decisions? This is not meant to be insulting or offensive but I believe we should each make our own decisions in life and investing really is a big one. Discussing things with others is good, but letting others dictate what you do is not. You said this person sold NAVB so it doesn't seem to have been your choice and that causes concern.

Not to ramble or belabor the point, but if I listened to others, I would not have retired early and would not have much beyond a pension and social security. Not that I need more, but I have significantly more than anyone I know personally, which makes having discussions about money difficult. I don't follow a chartered course and I encourage that of others. That means buy what you like in investing and do what you want to do in life. Don't rely on others, especially when money is involved. Don't hire people to do work for you who are looking for work; try to hire those who have no time to work for you because they are in such demand. And when it comes to advisors regarding your money, a person who gives advice and gets a fee better have earned at least eight figures on their own and not through hedge fund commission. However, if someone has that much money, they aren't going to be working for people who don't have a lot themselves. So the bottom line is that the rich get rich through their own efforts and the masses get taken to the cleaners. There is the group of rich people who came by their money through entertainment or sports or something and they often lose money rather than make it when they let investment advisors manage their wealth.

OK, you don't need to be lectured by someone who is your junior. I just get frustrated every time I read mention of your wealth advisor.
 
It's the AFTER point that I haven't seen this clarity on. The tweet and other 'comments' have said BOUGHT, not BUY. I know I'm splitting hairs here with tense but if they really wanted to say that any one buys FSD either before or after purchase will ultimately get the necessary 3.0HW for free - why not say it? Sure, after purchase these things are between 1000$-2000$ premium (and have always carried a post purchase purchase premium, but it doesn't seem as if that was to pay for additional HW in the past.

So, for those who didn't buy FSD at time of purchase (we don't know EXACTLY how many this is, but pre-purchase rates of FSD I think are only in the high single digits from some of the tracking spreadsheets), IF we buy it afterwards for 4000-5000$, is the hardware going to be "free"?

I would be surprised if it wasn't "free" -- it doesn't make any sense to do otherwise. What I mean is, if they want to increase the cost to keep the post-purchase premium above whatever hardware costs would be incurred then they just raise the post-purchase premium. It isn't like they are going to be selling the hardware module separately from FSD -- it makes no sense to have a separate pricing scheme.

I'm looking for "dry powder" in case the price goes back below $300 on open, but I can't even find wet powder :D For artful dodger, this is a long, long weekend :p
 
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