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And you got the twitter eth bot's as well!My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!
Gene on Twitter
Do you live in the middle of Kansas or are all your peers 65+? I have yet to meet or talked to someone who doesn't know what a Tesla is....I live in Central FL, not the greenest places in the world either.
Now these people are full of misinformed information thanks to all the FUD but they all know that Tesla is a luxury highly expensive electric car.
My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!
Gene on Twitter
In the "Crossing the Chasm" parlance those people are referred to as Late Majority. But at least we have moved from the Early Adopter phase to Early Majority with over 300K Tesla's delivered.I spent 30 minutes at a general store across from the Santee, SC supercharger, explaining to the owner, and a few other guys what a Tesla is.
I'd say a lot are starting to hear about Tesla a lot in the Southeast, but they have no idea what is (most).
Could you request that your mother-in-law explain to Buddha about the necessities for Elon to succeed so that the world can be saved and thus she prays for his spiritual protection against shorts and other demons? And I apologize for taking this thread away from its primary subject, but it is the weekend and this is sort of tangentially related.
Sorry, won't do. I was taught in a 12-step program never to pray for what you want, you might get it. As a consolation, my wife bothered to translate a portion of a monk's sermon on YouTube. "Whenever you admire nature you are seeing the spirit of Buddha." Musk has it covered anyway. Methinks Buddha would accept physics first principles as a first approximation of Buddhism. The rest is just good will. But then I'm a panentheist.
In the "Crossing the Chasm" parlance those people are referred to as Late Majority. But at least we have moved from the Early Adopter phase to Early Majority with over 300K Tesla's delivered.
In other words Tesla has successfully Crossed the Chasm.
Hopefully next week I will turn 82. In November my wife and I will celebrate our 15th anniversary. In January next she will celebrate her 42nd birthday.
3 Model 3s and not a single one of them is red! Come on, at least one should be red!My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!
Gene on Twitter
It's amusing to see shorts/bears/trolls raising the accounts payable and inventory argument, because it's actually a Tesla positive factor, i.e. it's harmful to their negative thesis about Tesla. It gives the impression that these shorts don't really know what they are talking about.
Firstly, you are committing a very basic accounting mistake in your argument: you are counting liabilities while not counting assets. In particular you are considering accounts payable while you are not counting either accounts receivable nor inventory. This kind of omission is a permanent feature of most variants of the Tesla short thesis I've seen so far, but you are clearly trying to reach new intellectual lows here.
While accounts payable increased in Q2 (which will happen for any manufacturer that ramps up fast and thus has much more goods 'in the pipeline'), its inventory counterpart increased at an even faster rate. A quick look at the data confirms:
[TD2] Inventory [/TD2] [TD2] +$increase [/TD2] [TD2] Accounts payable [/TD2][TD2] -$increase [/TD2] [TD2] $net [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,263m [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,390m [/TD2][TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,565m [/TD2] [TD2] +$302m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,603m [/TD2][TD2] -$213m [/TD2] [TD2] +$89m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,324m [/TD2] [TD2] +$758m [/TD2] [TD2] -$3,030m [/TD2][TD2] -$426m [/TD2] [TD2] +$331m [/TD2]
Quarter Dec 31, 2018 Mar 31, 2018 Jun 30, 2018
Note how the value of 'Inventory' has leaped ahead of 'Accounts payable' in Q2 already: this is an early sign of the Model 3's cash generation capability.
Inventory is in large part 'finished goods' (Model S3X's on way to the customer), raw materials, work in progress and service parts - i.e. future Model S3X's. Money spent on inventory isn't money disappearing like a short bet gone wrong, it's a real (temporary) asset that transfers into future revenue and cash at a high conversion rate.
If we consider accounts payable as a product pipeline liability, and inventory and accounts receivable as assets, we can tentatively (and somewhat sloppily: see the disclaimers below) compare them with cash levels and estimate "equilibrium" cash levels - what would happen if all Model S3X's in the pipeline were sold and accounted for:
[TD2] Inventory [/TD2] [TD2] Payables [/TD2] [TD2] Receivables [/TD2] [TD2] Cash [/TD2] [TD2] "Equilibrium" Cash (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] Cash delta [/TD2][TD2] "Equilibrium"-Cash flow (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,263m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,390m [/TD2] [TD2] +$515m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,367m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,756m [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,565m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,603m [/TD2] [TD2] +$652m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,665m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,280m [/TD2] [TD2] -$702m [/TD2][TD2] -$475m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,324m [/TD2] [TD2] -$3,030m [/TD2] [TD2] +$569m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,236m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,100m [/TD2] [TD2] -$429m [/TD2][TD2] -$180m [/TD2] [TD2] +$4,626m [/TD2] [TD2] - $4,684m [/TD2] [TD2] +$1,082m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,933m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,957m [/TD2] [TD2] +$696m [/TD2][TD2] +$857m [/TD2]
Quarter Dec 31, 2018 Mar 31, 2018 Jun 30, 2018 Sep 30, 2018 (est.)
(Note that this is only a coarse estimate, I'm estimating equilibrium flows from balance sheet items: in reality cash equivalents will also fluctuate for other reasons than the product pipeline; inventory value doesn't transform into revenue at a 100% rate; some consumer payments arrive before the car is made and thus increase cash balance; doesn't account for deferred revenue; plus it's all a dynamic snapshot with different time delays of the flows, etc. It's still an interesting and quick way to look at the equilibrium cash state behind the very dynamic Model 3 ramp-up which is by far the quickest moving part of the picture. This estimate probably over-estimates the equilibrium cash position - but I challenge shorts to come up with a Tesla-negative estimate on inventory effects, without misleading/lying that is.)
I.e. while cash dropped by -$429m in Q3, when coarsely corrected for accounts payable, accounts receivable and inventory values, "effective cash" only dropped by about -$180m in Q2, i.e. Tesla was much closer to an estimated equilibrium cash flow break-even point in Q2 already.
In Q3 Tesla is generating serious cash flow: cash equivalents are expected to rise to $2,933m, a growth of +$696m over Q2. I.e. the extra cash generated in Q3 alone is enough to pay off 75% of the $920m 2019 convertible notes - and then there's the additional cash generated in Q4 and much of 2019/Q1...
Conclusion: the Tesla "cash crunch" or bankwuptcy thesis is not supported by facts, it remains an elusive fever-dream by Tesla shorts/bears who are fundamentally disconnected from reality.
Impressive. Waiting to see if @FirebirdAlpha has a rebuttal to this...
Terms of Service Violation
Nice interview, the b!tch reporter tries to put some words into his mouth. But he doesn't fall for it. He tells doesn't read NYT and that it is biased.
technically, for all EV in general, we’re still in the innovators stage..haven’t even reached early adopters phase yet
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Could anyone get Bloomberg to mention that somewhere in their all their sensationalist articles? Or are journalist forbidden to offer some perspective to their readers?I do not recall any other technology leader in an emerging industry ever being able to predict what they will achieve in the future 3 years with that level of accuracy. Still given that we are just in with the first 3 of the 10 years he looked at there is still a long time to go. However if you experience deviations from your long term plan in the first years the impact of the following years is big. Thats simple math. Given that Tesla overachieves in most areas until now the likelihood that they achieve the 10 year plan is way higher now than it was in 2015.
Feel free to send that video anybody claiming Tesla is being in production or making unrealistic plans for the future.