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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Do you live in the middle of Kansas or are all your peers 65+? I have yet to meet or talked to someone who doesn't know what a Tesla is....I live in Central FL, not the greenest places in the world either.

Now these people are full of misinformed information thanks to all the FUD but they all know that Tesla is a luxury highly expensive electric car.

I spent 30 minutes at a general store across from the Santee, SC supercharger, explaining to the owner, and a few other guys what a Tesla is.

I'd say a lot are starting to hear about Tesla a lot in the Southeast, but they have no idea what is (most).
 
I spent 30 minutes at a general store across from the Santee, SC supercharger, explaining to the owner, and a few other guys what a Tesla is.

I'd say a lot are starting to hear about Tesla a lot in the Southeast, but they have no idea what is (most).
In the "Crossing the Chasm" parlance those people are referred to as Late Majority. But at least we have moved from the Early Adopter phase to Early Majority with over 300K Tesla's delivered.

In other words Tesla has successfully Crossed the Chasm.
 
Could you request that your mother-in-law explain to Buddha about the necessities for Elon to succeed so that the world can be saved and thus she prays for his spiritual protection against shorts and other demons? And I apologize for taking this thread away from its primary subject, but it is the weekend and this is sort of tangentially related.

Sorry, won't do. I was taught in a 12-step program never to pray for what you want, you might get it. As a consolation, my wife bothered to translate a portion of a monk's sermon on YouTube. "Whenever you admire nature you are seeing the spirit of Buddha." Musk has it covered anyway. Methinks Buddha would accept physics first principles as a first approximation of Buddhism. The rest is just good will. But then I'm a panentheist.
 
Sorry, won't do. I was taught in a 12-step program never to pray for what you want, you might get it. As a consolation, my wife bothered to translate a portion of a monk's sermon on YouTube. "Whenever you admire nature you are seeing the spirit of Buddha." Musk has it covered anyway. Methinks Buddha would accept physics first principles as a first approximation of Buddhism. The rest is just good will. But then I'm a panentheist.

Well, since I'm an atheist i don't really believe in anything beyond us here and now before we become worm food, but it's like that old W.C.Fields anecdote where he was in the hospital reading the bible and someone asked why since he's an atheist and he responded "looking for loopholes" so I figured if your MIL were to pray for something, the worst that could happen is nothing.

But along the issue of prayer, and I know this is going astray, but it isn't as though there is that much going on right now, but don't you think praying for something, if you believe in god, is actually an act of persuasion? If one believes in god's plan, then asking for something that isn't happening is an argument that if won, would invalidate the existence of god since god is always right and convincing god to change course would mean there was an error. It can't happen, except for those who weasel religion and claim that it was going to happen and god knew it would but one has to ask for it first. That's absurd. Think of all the unanswered prayers for the death of tyrants and killers. Think of how Trump and all those who surround him are escaping any injury despite all the pain they inflict on others. No, I don't believe in prayer so I don't fear getting what you pray for is in the cards.

Now along another, but related point, I know someone who went through the 12 step and I got all over her for their use of god, but she informed me that the god can be any belief one has. It needn't be a god as known by religion. But I probably got that screwed up in some way or don't remember accurately.

Yeah, discussions of prayer could be an entire forum. I suppose there is one but I would never be on it.
 
In the "Crossing the Chasm" parlance those people are referred to as Late Majority. But at least we have moved from the Early Adopter phase to Early Majority with over 300K Tesla's delivered.

In other words Tesla has successfully Crossed the Chasm.

technically, for all EV in general, we’re still in the innovators stage..haven’t even reached early adopters phase yet :)
E6A6CC44-AB9C-4873-BC27-D4CFAA4DA65D.jpeg
 
My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!

Gene on Twitter
3 Model 3s and not a single one of them is red! Come on, at least one should be red!
Jokes aside, I am really thrilled for you! If we weren’t stuck with the 3 year lease on Honda Clarity FCEV, we would be seriously considering going for a second one, probably midnight silver!
 
It's amusing to see shorts/bears/trolls raising the accounts payable and inventory argument, because it's actually a Tesla positive factor, i.e. it's harmful to their negative thesis about Tesla. It gives the impression that these shorts don't really know what they are talking about.

Firstly, you are committing a very basic accounting mistake in your argument: you are counting liabilities while not counting assets. In particular you are considering accounts payable while you are not counting either accounts receivable nor inventory. This kind of omission is a permanent feature of most variants of the Tesla short thesis I've seen so far, but you are clearly trying to reach new intellectual lows here.

While accounts payable increased in Q2 (which will happen for any manufacturer that ramps up fast and thus has much more goods 'in the pipeline'), its inventory counterpart increased at an even faster rate. A quick look at the data confirms:
Quarter
Dec 31, 2018
Mar 31, 2018
Jun 30, 2018
[TD2] Inventory [/TD2] [TD2] +$increase [/TD2] [TD2] Accounts payable [/TD2][TD2] -$increase [/TD2] [TD2] $net [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,263m [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,390m [/TD2][TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,565m [/TD2] [TD2] +$302m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,603m [/TD2][TD2] -$213m [/TD2] [TD2] +$89m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,324m [/TD2] [TD2] +$758m [/TD2] [TD2] -$3,030m [/TD2][TD2] -$426m [/TD2] [TD2] +$331m [/TD2]

Note how the value of 'Inventory' has leaped ahead of 'Accounts payable' in Q2 already: this is an early sign of the Model 3's cash generation capability.

Inventory is in large part 'finished goods' (Model S3X's on way to the customer), raw materials, work in progress and service parts - i.e. future Model S3X's. Money spent on inventory isn't money disappearing like a short bet gone wrong, it's a real (temporary) asset that transfers into future revenue and cash at a high conversion rate.

If we consider accounts payable as a product pipeline liability, and inventory and accounts receivable as assets, we can tentatively (and somewhat sloppily: see the disclaimers below) compare them with cash levels and estimate "equilibrium" cash levels - what would happen if all Model S3X's in the pipeline were sold and accounted for:
Quarter
Dec 31, 2018
Mar 31, 2018
Jun 30, 2018
Sep 30, 2018 (est.)
[TD2] Inventory [/TD2] [TD2] Payables [/TD2] [TD2] Receivables [/TD2] [TD2] Cash [/TD2] [TD2] "Equilibrium" Cash (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] Cash delta [/TD2][TD2] "Equilibrium"-Cash flow (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,263m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,390m [/TD2] [TD2] +$515m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,367m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,756m [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,565m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,603m [/TD2] [TD2] +$652m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,665m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,280m [/TD2] [TD2] -$702m [/TD2][TD2] -$475m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,324m [/TD2] [TD2] -$3,030m [/TD2] [TD2] +$569m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,236m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,100m [/TD2] [TD2] -$429m [/TD2][TD2] -$180m [/TD2] [TD2] +$4,626m [/TD2] [TD2] - $4,684m [/TD2] [TD2] +$1,082m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,933m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,957m [/TD2] [TD2] +$696m [/TD2][TD2] +$857m [/TD2]

(Note that this is only a coarse estimate, I'm estimating equilibrium flows from balance sheet items: in reality cash equivalents will also fluctuate for other reasons than the product pipeline; inventory value doesn't transform into revenue at a 100% rate; some consumer payments arrive before the car is made and thus increase cash balance; doesn't account for deferred revenue; plus it's all a dynamic snapshot with different time delays of the flows, etc. It's still an interesting and quick way to look at the equilibrium cash state behind the very dynamic Model 3 ramp-up which is by far the quickest moving part of the picture. This estimate probably over-estimates the equilibrium cash position - but I challenge shorts to come up with a Tesla-negative estimate on inventory effects, without misleading/lying that is.)

I.e. while cash dropped by -$429m in Q3, when coarsely corrected for accounts payable, accounts receivable and inventory values, "effective cash" only dropped by about -$180m in Q2, i.e. Tesla was much closer to an estimated equilibrium cash flow break-even point in Q2 already.

In Q3 Tesla is generating serious cash flow: cash equivalents are expected to rise to $2,933m, a growth of +$696m over Q2. I.e. the extra cash generated in Q3 alone is enough to pay off 75% of the $920m 2019 convertible notes - and then there's the additional cash generated in Q4 and much of 2019/Q1...

Conclusion: the Tesla "cash crunch" or bankwuptcy thesis is not supported by facts, it remains an elusive fever-dream by Tesla shorts/bears who are fundamentally disconnected from reality.
Impressive. Waiting to see if @FirebirdAlpha has a rebuttal to this...

Thanks @Fact Checking. This is the type of rebuttal that many of us here were waiting for. A great way to “flip the bird” at shorters and their “cashburn”
BS... I don’t think we’ll get a rebuttal from @FirebirdAlpha, the amount of brain cells to comprehend half of what fact checking was talking about is too much for shorts to understand, afterall “shorts and facts” are like “oil and water”, they don’t mix too well and repel one another instantly upon mixture. Instead of posting numbers, I think he’ll post some random “July 2013” Inside EV numbers extrapolated by some panel gaps he saw on seeking alpha... (you know, the typical short rebuttal...).
 
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Nice interview, the b!tch reporter tries to put some words into his mouth. But he doesn't fall for it. He tells doesn't read NYT and that it is biased.

Want to sound like you don't like women? Keep using language like that to describe them.

You forgot to call her a c*** too and to assert that she must be on her period.
 
I want to thank you guys for giving me more insight on the balance sheet. Actually, I have not bought any put options (only on AMD and AAPL), I do only own 100 shares of TSLA and the above discussion makes me more confident about the future of TSLA. I do hope their next product (model Y) will rock like iPhone X and TSLA is able to scale production immensively to create shareholder value.
 
Last evening (Saturday ~ 1Sep) while merging onto I5 heading south just prior to the WA 101 junction heading towards Shelton, WA my wife was yelling something, but I kept my focus on moving into the left lane without getting us killed or Xena scratched. Just in the last few seconds, I glimpsed in my side mirror the white wrapped upper level of a Model S or X, on a semi heading north. My wife then informed me that I missed a truck load of Tesla’s heading either to Seattle or Canada:-( She also said it was a mixed bag of S, 3s, and Xs (sexy if the Model Y had been on board)

People, at 68 or 9 shortly, I still cuss. Someone told me there was a stand up comedian that made his line by saying “what the captain really meant to say,” but that was the Vietnam era. Well what the Major (Ret) actually said as Xena covered the next mile, okay probably three miles cannot be repeated or shouldn’t anyway.

Last week on our way back to Olympia we saw a white Model 3, and a blue Model 3! All I needed was a red Model 3 for a patriotic event in time, but all we got was a Model S and I do not recall the color:-(

It is a sign that the Grate Northwest is cooling off as we are seeing on average three Tesla’s on the road every time we are out and about. Stock prices should be up lifted on this news alone:)

Do not worry, cussing is not the only reason my wife keeps me in the basement.

Oh, and the GrandPups, especially my grandson, enjoyed our going out to dinner last night. As I merged onto SR 3 towards Allen, WA, I confirmed both kids had their seatbelts on as I put the peddle to the metal ~ he exclaimed, “ROCKETMAN.” My wife, under her breath, exclaimed, “thank god, I did dot allow you the performance model.”:)

Okay, who’s older the grandson or me? We both have the number six in our age:)

This was a fitting reflection of our Fremont tour last September when I got to look at/sit in the apparently only Model 3 belonging to an employee:) And, my wife commented after seeing the truck load of Tesla’s that that was the most cars clustered together since the Fremont road trip:) Yes, California does have the most Tesla’s per capita (sp), but I think Washington state is catching up, one car at a time. We get a charge out of Tesla’s!
 
A lot of people including myself are trying to predict the future of Tesla.

The way I do approach this is looking in the past, assessing what has been predicted for the future until today and judge statements made today from the same people based on that taking the consistency of that people in account.

Pretty easy method and some smart scientist may have invented a name for that somewhere.

I suggest everybody to spend some time with Elons interview in Detroit 2015 where he in length was interviewed. Please review where Tesla was at that stage and evaluate his statement on facts what has been achieved in the 3 years to determine to what extend they are on track.

Here are a few quotes I find interesting:

" By 2020 sure be 500,000 (cars) but we continue past that (...)" - I say we are very well on track to achieve that earlier or better said to exceed that number in 2020.

"I think we should be at a few million cars in 10 years (...) I say thats a few millions in 2025 " - Tesla is well on track for that as well

"We will at some point initiate starting showing a profit" Q: When will that be ? "Probably when the Model 3 id in full production" Q: When will that be? "Well we can comfortably say 2020 (...) I think when we do half a million cars we should be profitable at that point" - Again I state that looking where we are at now in Q3 2018 it looks like they are clearly ahead of that plan.

I do not recall any other technology leader in an emerging industry ever being able to predict what they will achieve in the future 3 years with that level of accuracy. Still given that we are just in with the first 3 of the 10 years he looked at there is still a long time to go. However if you experience deviations from your long term plan in the first years the impact of the following years is big. Thats simple math. Given that Tesla overachieves in most areas until now the likelihood that they achieve the 10 year plan is way higher now than it was in 2015.


Feel free to send that video anybody claiming Tesla is being in production or making unrealistic plans for the future.
 
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I do not recall any other technology leader in an emerging industry ever being able to predict what they will achieve in the future 3 years with that level of accuracy. Still given that we are just in with the first 3 of the 10 years he looked at there is still a long time to go. However if you experience deviations from your long term plan in the first years the impact of the following years is big. Thats simple math. Given that Tesla overachieves in most areas until now the likelihood that they achieve the 10 year plan is way higher now than it was in 2015.


Feel free to send that video anybody claiming Tesla is being in production or making unrealistic plans for the future.
Could anyone get Bloomberg to mention that somewhere in their all their sensationalist articles? Or are journalist forbidden to offer some perspective to their readers?
 
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