TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[LST]

We have got lucky and got two VIP tickets from Tesla to the "Grand Premiere" on Sept 5th in Basel. I will take pics if allowed and let you all know. Curious I am....

 

[PaulusdB]

Many of us think it will be a higher performance version of the new roadster.

Maximum plaid, finally?

 

[Skryll]

Wait, how did we go from

I bozght some 250$ puts and Sold 400$ calls. Holding 100 shares currebcur but I guess Elon ****ed up really Bad in the last 3 months. Without further financing in January 19, TSLA will Run out of Cash hence mark bankrupt unfortunately

to

I want to thank you guys for giving me more insight on the balance sheet. Actually, I have not bought any put options (only on AMD and AAPL), I do only own 100 shares of TSLA and the above discussion makes me more confident about the future of TSLA. I do hope their next product (model Y) will rock like iPhone X and TSLA is able to scale production immensively to create shareholder value.

Trolling much?

 

[bdy0627]

That statement must have been made in the pre-tent era of the Tesla story, back when the alien dreadnought still was a thing. Good old times ...

You're getting way too caught up in this model 3 ramp story. It's been a bumpy last 12 months, but Tesla is now consistently producing over 4,000 model 3 and 2,000 S & X per week. That's only going to increase over the next year. Anyone who doubts this is irrational. The production process is going to continue to improve and become more efficient over time. Anyone who doubts this is plumb crazy. You need to observe with a broader horizon, not so focused on such a short time window. This was true of the model S and X launch. We are watching it play out again with the model 3 launch, this time on steroids due to the massive increase in scale for Tesla. There will be strong indications by November that this process is happening again. It will become totally apparent by February 2019, just 5 months from now, that Tesla is becoming a juggernaut.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Thanks @Fact Checking. This is the type of rebuttal that many of us here were waiting for. A great way to “flip the bird” at shorters and their “cashburn”
BS... I don’t think we’ll get a rebuttal from @FirebirdAlpha

FirebirdAlpha wasn't able to provide any response to my observation that Tesla eventually exceeds expectations (like delivering 50k Model S/year vs. original projection of 20k/year), just never on Elon Musk's stated timelines.

Many of the retail level short sellers, or people who just hate Musk, appear to use the reasoning: "Musk said X would happen on Y date. X didn't happen on Y date. Therefore Tesla must fail", without looking at the bigger picture.

People in general don't deal well with uncertainty. This psychological reality unfortunately means that we will probably continue to see this kind of argument from shorts.

Wait, how did go from

to


Trolling much?

Good observation.

It is a shame that dishonorable people think it is ok to come here under false pretenses for the purpose of sowing FUD. There are a number of accounts who have claimed to be "concerned" investors or even potential Tesla vehicle buyers, that did nothing but attempt to spread fear and uncertainty regarding anything to do with Tesla as a business.

 

[Alphacrux]

FirebirdAlpha wasn't able to provide any response to my observation that Tesla eventually exceeds expectations (like delivering 50k Model S/year vs. original projection of 20k/year), just never on Elon Musk's stated timelines.

Many of the retail level short sellers, or people who just hate Musk, appear to use the reasoning: "Musk said X would happen on Y date. X didn't happen on Y date. Therefore Tesla must fail", without looking at the bigger picture.

People in general don't deal well with uncertainty. This psychological reality unfortunately means that we will probably continue to see this kind of argument from shorts.




Good observation.

It is a shame that dishonorable people think it is ok to come here under false pretenses for the purpose of sowing FUD. There are a number of accounts who have claimed to be "concerned" investors or even potential Tesla vehicle buyers, that did nothing but attempt to spread fear and uncertainty regarding anything to do with Tesla as a business.

Shorts love to use the word, “promised”. ‘Musk promised..”

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Go read (reread?) a few months of the Short Term Price Action threads, vintage 2013. Ish.
Bonus: Open a tab to view the share price at the time of each comment*. It’s really a great exercise in opening up your perspective.

Directed at no one : everyone in general. Who among us can’t use a bit more perspective?

*this would be a feature I’d pay for, hint, hint

 

[RABaby]

Aside from a belief in panentheism, I accept the label of non believer as regards religion though raised a Christian. It seems to me the error of believers and atheists alike is a suspension of skepticism. I've long been impressed with Ortega y Gassett's remark, if memory serves, "People are wrong about skeptics. It is not that they believe in nothing; on the contrary, they believe in practically everything." As a junior in high school I remember shocking our minister by asking "what is the reason for reason?" No good answer but in old age the Greeks probably confronted such wise asses with something like bootstrap ease. On the possible infinite surprise angle, even string theorists seem to be recent converts to the multiverse hypothesis. "Let a hundred flowers bloom." as Mao said. A typical hypocritical politician he meant it in foreign policy, not at home due his fondness for Lenin's "democratic centralism." Now there's a contradiction in terms.

Fire away on the Market Politics thread as the long weekend nears end. What is it the belle tolled?

NOTE: Most of you should skip this message. It has nothing to do with investing and was in response to an ongoing discussion during non market hours.


I was not always so lacking in skepticism and so confirmed in belief.
If it were not that religions have utilized god to wreak havoc on millions, perhaps my dalliance into belief earlier in life would not have been so tainted. Maybe I've overlooked one, but it seems there is no well documented religion that elevates women to the same level as man and most prevent women from having any authority. To me, religion doesn't pass the sniff test.

While it's wrong to mix religion and god because religion is man made, and for the purposes of man, I do this because one must fight against those who are committed to a faith and can't accept the consideration of a god without religion. But that doesn't mean there is a god. Unless the definition of god is so broad as to include all things conceivable.

A person's beliefs arise from their environment and for many, a search for understanding.
I can't make sense of a scientist who would pass off the responsibility for further understanding by simply giving credit to god.
But in regards to multiverse hypothesis, I don't place that quite in the same realm as god, but perhaps I am too ignorant on the subject.
One can be open to ideas without being committed to anything specific, but I don't think you disagree on that.

The truth is that I try to keep things simple because for the most part, most things are.
Remember Deep Throat and his "follow the money" was true then for finding the truth and is true now regarding the TSLA shorts. So I can't see evidence of god and therefore find no reason to believe, but then there are plenty who disagree. So I will offer up something that may cause many to see me as without a soul, which I guess could be accurate since I am 98% sure we lack that, depending on definition. People always mention the miracle of birth. I was present at both of my daughters and participated in the second one. I was matter of fact. I did not cry or become emotional. It was something that happens in life. If it were a miracle, none of us would be here. It is what is. Sure, people enjoy the sunset and the flowers. There are hideous creatures in the depths of the sea, but are they hideous to everyone or to other creatures of the sea? We assign the concept of miracle and beauty based on our own perspectives.

Sorry, I've become too old and it's too easy for me to go astray, rambling incoherently. But I lie, I have always rambled incoherently.

While I tend to dismiss mention of god and even the consideration of karma, I do believe in intuition. It is something available
to all but women tend to be more sensitive and open to it. How could I possibly prove its existence, and if one did, would
that necessitate in some people's eyes that god existed? Intuition to me is separate and apart from god or karma and does exist, but
it may be an example of dimensions that physicists describe. I have now gotten beyond simple and out of my depth. But my experience with intuition can kind of be documented, so that is quite different from god. Yes, we here of all these miracles where people prayed and were saved, but what about those whose prayers were not answered? Are their ghosts here to testify?

And yes, I've heard that belle a tolling
but assumed it weren't for me
my thought has always been
the belle is just a noisy she

I suppose if I has been one of your students you would have kicked me out of class for being evidence that god does make mistakes.

 

[gringotuanis]

I am still depressed this weekend because the trolls have convinced me that since my mortgage is more than what I have in my checking account at this moment that I will have to file for bankruptcy irrelevant of my incoming cash. Tuesday will be a sad day when the bank opens.

(NOT!)

You should tweet this out so we can retweet it all over.

 

[YasB]

You're getting way too caught up in this model 3 ramp story.

Because i made a not-that-good joke about it? I don't think so.

It's been a bumpy last 12 months, but Tesla is now consistently producing over 4,000 model 3 and 2,000 S & X per week. That's only going to increase over the next year. Anyone who doubts this is irrational. [...] It will become totally apparent by February 2019, just 5 months from now, that Tesla is becoming a juggernaut.

I don't doubt that first part. I also don't doubt that they'll do better next year. I have doubts regarding the level of growth they can maintain over the next 3-5 years, especially since that new production plant seems to move further away, than some people here assumed just some months ago. I doubt their ability to increase revenue less than their ability to consistently make a profit. We'll see if they can do that, during an economic slowdown or something that comes even close to a recession. If so, i was wrong and they made it.

Regarding that second part: Daimler or BMW sell about 2 million cars a year, which is not very much compared to volume car makers, but seems to be decent for cars that are supposedly premium. Looking at such things, i have no reason at all to call Tesla a juggernaut, even if they should reach a production rate of 500-600k per year sometime in 2019. Let's talk about that again after they have that china plant up and running and started construction of another two or three plants. ;-)

 

[wipster]

You're getting way too caught up in this model 3 ramp story. It's been a bumpy last 12 months, but Tesla is now consistently producing over 4,000 model 3 and 2,000 S & X per week. That's only going to increase over the next year. Anyone who doubts this is irrational. The production process is going to continue to improve and become more efficient over time. Anyone who doubts this is plumb crazy. You need to observe with a broader horizon, not so focused on such a short time window. This was true of the model S and X launch. We are watching it play out again with the model 3 launch, this time on steroids due to the massive increase in scale for Tesla. There will be strong indications by November that this process is happening again. It will become totally apparent by February 2019, just 5 months from now, that Tesla is becoming a juggernaut.

Hopefully not the Juggernaut depicted in Deadpool 2...

 

[JRP3]

Nothing to see here but the title was amusing. "Onslaught" isn't quite what it used to be I guess.
German onslaught against Tesla dominance - Audi AG (OTCMKTS:AUDVF) | Seeking Alpha

 

[JRP3]

On the possible infinite surprise angle, even string theorists seem to be recent converts to the multiverse hypothesis.

Physicist Lawrence Krauss has some interesting thoughts on the multiverse, (as well as many other topics). A short clip, which if you find interesting, should motivate you to look for his complete talks about the universe.

 

[dennis]

technically, for all EV in general, we’re still in the innovators stage..haven’t even reached early adopters phase yet

It varies by market. I am in Silicon Valley. I've observed the progression of who is buying Tesla's at my golf club. It started with the greenies and a few car guys who liked to new tech. Progressed to some of those who always have to have the latest greatest. Now I see people in none of those categories buying the car because so many of their friends have one and really like it. At least here in California we are in the Early Majority phase of adoption IMO. Not true for many other parts of the country.

 

[30seconds]

Simple question:

In what year will a German manufacturer sell at least 50,000 units of a BEV? Pick a year and name the vehicle.

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023+

 

[Causalien]

I am still depressed this weekend because the trolls have convinced me that since my mortgage is more than what I have in my checking account at this moment that I will have to file for bankruptcy irrelevant of my incoming cash. Tuesday will be a sad day when the bank opens.

(NOT!)

I am a short on Real Estate. This is the perfect FUD for a RE bear.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Simple question:

In what year will a German manufacturer sell at least 50,000 units of a BEV? Pick a year and name the vehicle.

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023+

My guess fwiw, It will be a consortium of VW, DC and BMW in 2025, having merged resources after their combined individual disastrous downfalls in 2024 dismissing EVs as only niche market, while betting heavily on gasoline and diesel. Their new EV, a large SUV with an even larger grill (needed to fit all three logos on) will be called the EVWanabe and top out at 50,000 units per year production before being recalled due to poor battery performance and runaway autonomous defects and sent to the scrap heap.

Is it me, or has this past weekend seen a significant increase in a better outlook for Tesla and TSLA. Then again, I just remembered I just put a lot of bears on ignore as one is only capable of reading so much TMC, no matter how informative it is. Surf's up!

 

[RobStark]

At least here in California we are in the Early Majority phase of adoption IMO. Not true for many other parts of the country.

California's BEV market share is 3.1% in 2018 July YTD. That is past the Innovator phase but well within Early Adopter.

Maybe Silicon Valley has reached Early Majority phase.

 

[YasB]

Simple question: In what year will a German manufacturer sell at least 50,000 units of a BEV? Pick a year and name the vehicle.

2020 - VW I.D.

 

[RobStark]

Don't have Data on Silicon Valley but 2018 Sales July YTD for the San Francisco Bay area is 7.7% BEV/FCEV where BEV is 7.6%.