In general, I agree with your sentiment about coincidence. But when you say "timed to hurt Tesla" that implies there was something special about just now. The questionable timing is the 30k shares (speculation of short) sold right before the news hit. In other words, it isn't so much the drop coinciding with the news as that a large sell order happened just prior to the news.
As to why not $325 or $350 -- there are a couple of responses (if there is a conspiracy). First, it might not have raised that high. If you are going to do it, you do it at a given price. What matters in shorting is the pricing differential, not the absolute values. Second, you are presuming that there are not other motivations. For example, a belief that the stock will raise $X on hearing the good news about Q3. Repeated price knock downs would be useful in such a case in order to keep the final Q3 price as low as possible.
None of which proves anything. What *is* known is that Bloomberg and others constantly rely on negative stories about Tesla. Which does mean that, by coincidence, a large sale could happen to occur shortly before such a news item was posted. There is certainly evidence of this happening (IIRC another was this last February when Moody did the downgrade) but reaching statistical significance is another matter. I'm not a statistician, but my sense from the math of it is that even with $TSLA's frequent swings there just wouldn't be enough to lock it down either way.
But statistics is the black box approach of assigning probability to coincidence. The SEC could investigate which avoids the playing with numbers to make better guesses. Not that I expect they will.
Short version: coincidence is not proof of conspiracy, insufficient data to determine probability with any confidence, SEC unlikely to investigate.
