RobStark
Well-Known Member
Shocking that TMC is the most optimistic.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Shocking that TMC is the most optimistic.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Shorts are hellbent on losing more money.
You're right that the working capital number is the right one to focus on.
However, the number that Tesla reports is a little dicey because of the ZEV/GHG issue.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's false, your calculation makes a series of basic accounting mistakes in (under-)estimating Q3 cash flow improvements:
- Not only did the margin increase to 15%, but it increased for all Model 3's delivered due to economies of scale, not just the 'incremental' ones. I.e. the 15% margin applies to all 55,840 Model 3's delivered, which is +$502m of cash flow instead of Q2's break-even.
- But it gets better: compared to Q2 Tesla delivered 5,360 more Model S+X vehicles, which at an average ASP of $104k and a profit margin of 28% adds another +$156m cash flow.
- But it gets better: inventory levels got lower, Tesla added 517 Model 3's to inventory, and delivered 4,533 Model S+X vehicles from inventory. This added approximately +$340m of cash flow.
Tesla will likely be able to pay back much of the 2019/March convertibles of $920m from its Q3 free cash flow alone... (!)
But there's Q4 free cash flow and much of Q1/2019 free cash flow as well - which will be useful to finance the Chinese Gigafactory capex, Model Y capex and a lot of other nice Tesla growth projects that will make the (remaining) shorts squirm.
Last edited:
None of that answered the question, where do “finishes goods” fall into this math?
When you speak of total liabilities you also need to consider total assets, specifically “finished goods” inventory.
Because of manipulation and epidemic levels of FUD.
I saw a couple comments here to the effect of "why don't shorts just chill for a bit, maybe even go long"
Y'all don't understand. They cannot just casually cover and chill out. They are in way too deep. This is where the LeGeNdArY sQuEeZe talk comes from. It's going to happen. Because of numbers and facts. It's not a wet dream and a dream alone.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Numbers were mostly known before the report, and China concerns listed in the report. Also speeding up the China GF might imply more CapEx.....that one is unknown, but the market detests uncertainty.
At this point, I kind of hope it drops again. Load more shares. Makes no difference to the success of Tesla. Can't stop them with the SP anymore.
FirebirdAlpha
Banned
Yes. ZEVs are consistently a wildcard. I think they're offset by the committed CapEx, however.
In September Tesla had 19% marketshare in Norway with just the X & S? Am I reading that right?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yes, Tesla is batching again.
They keep promising to smooth deliveries.
Not only does it stress out Tesla employees it makes it hard for Tesla to find adequate Trucks with licenced drivers.
We all have seen awesome numbers released today. Thats just fantastic.
They do exceed expectations on all levels and I want to thank the many who predicted the ballpark we are in. Hard facts and numbers is all what counts and cannot be denied. This is a strong basis for Tesla moving forward and for an exceptional ER I wait for in early November.
Delivery and Production is extremely important and I am even more delighted to see that the China GF will be put into action earlier.
I am more than ever confident that my investment thesis works and that Tesla is on the right track. Since I started to invest the company was never in better shape than today. The gap between the true value of Tesla and the stock price has never been larger.
In terms of the stock movement today I fully understand that the expectation including mine what will happen were different. Having been now a long time an Investor I want to give some words of encouragement to those who do not understand what happened and feel like the numbers are not recognized from the market.
In short, thats not true. The numbers are recognized and people realize ever day more that Tesla is growing into the largest most profitable EV producer and vehicle producer on earth.
The short term stock price movement is not in correlation with the true inner value of a company. That lesson I learned long time ago. Mid and long term there is no escape from gravity and the inner true value of a stock always gets closer and often overshoots it before retreating again. This will happen here too.
This stock is very cheap and the shorts, bears and some parts of the media try to explain to the audience that the earth is flat and climate change a myth. I recommend not to have too much expectations in daily stock movement of Tesla but to look more on mid and long term. Look at the facts.
Today the shorts wasted a lot of money to try to stay in control and create uncertainty. What we need to move the stock up in a significant way is large investors to move in. They still stand at the sideline as they want to hear about profitability and cash flow first before they invest. Its inevitable that this will happen and likely already in about 5 weeks.
Today shorts lost a lot of arguments and in fact they do not have a lot to claim any more. To press the stock price down is a possibility to create uncertainty. Don't get fooled about their empty arguments and ignore them unless there is a valid point to be discussed and dismantled.
Today has been a great day for all Tesla investors and the stock price will follow the good news. No escape from gravity!
They do exceed expectations on all levels and I want to thank the many who predicted the ballpark we are in. Hard facts and numbers is all what counts and cannot be denied. This is a strong basis for Tesla moving forward and for an exceptional ER I wait for in early November.
Delivery and Production is extremely important and I am even more delighted to see that the China GF will be put into action earlier.
I am more than ever confident that my investment thesis works and that Tesla is on the right track. Since I started to invest the company was never in better shape than today. The gap between the true value of Tesla and the stock price has never been larger.
In terms of the stock movement today I fully understand that the expectation including mine what will happen were different. Having been now a long time an Investor I want to give some words of encouragement to those who do not understand what happened and feel like the numbers are not recognized from the market.
In short, thats not true. The numbers are recognized and people realize ever day more that Tesla is growing into the largest most profitable EV producer and vehicle producer on earth.
The short term stock price movement is not in correlation with the true inner value of a company. That lesson I learned long time ago. Mid and long term there is no escape from gravity and the inner true value of a stock always gets closer and often overshoots it before retreating again. This will happen here too.
This stock is very cheap and the shorts, bears and some parts of the media try to explain to the audience that the earth is flat and climate change a myth. I recommend not to have too much expectations in daily stock movement of Tesla but to look more on mid and long term. Look at the facts.
Today the shorts wasted a lot of money to try to stay in control and create uncertainty. What we need to move the stock up in a significant way is large investors to move in. They still stand at the sideline as they want to hear about profitability and cash flow first before they invest. Its inevitable that this will happen and likely already in about 5 weeks.
Today shorts lost a lot of arguments and in fact they do not have a lot to claim any more. To press the stock price down is a possibility to create uncertainty. Don't get fooled about their empty arguments and ignore them unless there is a valid point to be discussed and dismantled.
Today has been a great day for all Tesla investors and the stock price will follow the good news. No escape from gravity!
Today was a good day. Fact figures are good and in the centre of focus.
SP? Fine for the high shorted price. Do you expected that there will be no dips/ups any more?
I get used to it.
We are already 2nd day in Q4. Shorters, clock is ticking.
SP? Fine for the high shorted price. Do you expected that there will be no dips/ups any more?
I get used to it.
We are already 2nd day in Q4. Shorters, clock is ticking.
“If Tesla isn’t profitable or cash flow positive in Q3, it’s over.”
That is utter nonsense.
This is amongst the more stupid of your long list of stupid posts.
Why is there no big player just buying some percentage of TSLA? Like Tencent to increase to 10% or any other player? Just suck in all shared which dumps the price. This would stop the short game very quickly and the investment would turn out positive.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
