TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachF]

TSLA really wants to go more green but NASDAQ trying to drag it down...

 

[ggr]

Since according to their schedule the earnings report would be due around October 31, November 1-2, and the China deadline was apparently today, I'm wondering why they'd have worried about it in any fashion. Also, had anything gone wrong with the Shanghai land purchase, they cannot delay the ER for that, as it likely won't be resolved by the ER time anyway.

But yes, I find it weird too that they have not scheduled an ER date yet. They usually post it a few days after the delivery report (which deadline is long gone), and the typical announcement schedule of other firms is roughly 2 weeks before the earnings report - which would have been sometime this week if they are keeping to their original schedule.

So I'm too wondering what's going on.

My guess has shifted to Nov 7, because I saw and experienced first hand the delivery mess at the end of Q3. I think it will just take them a little while longer to sort out the financials than usual.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

market showing support, tsla exploding

 

[KarenRei]

Does anybody have coordinates for this plot? I'd like to follow it from space.

Edit: So far, I found this: Gigafactory 3 developments

That's approximately here:
30°52'17.0"N 121°46'00.0"E
Google Maps

I always flinch when I look at how close to the ocean it is there, remembering that this is a major risk area for A) typhoons, B) tsunamis, and C) is reclaimed land in a major earthquake zone :Þ

They better protect the heck out of the plant....

 

[KarenRei]

It reduces the per-share value of future cash flows, ceteris paribus.


This isn't investment income; it's pure dilution for existing shareholders that value the stock at more than current price: i.e. all investors.

It's clear to me at this point that no one stands up to Elon at Tesla, and this, in my opinion, is by far the most significant risk to investors.

It's a miniscule capital raise that negates the SEC fine. I don't see how anyone can care about this.

 

[JRP3]

It reduces the per-share value of future cash flows, ceteris paribus.


This isn't investment income; it's pure dilution for existing shareholders that value the stock at more than current price: i.e. all investors.

It's clear to me at this point that no one stands up to Elon at Tesla, and this, in my opinion, is by far the most significant risk to investors.

You don't seem to understand the point of this transaction. By buying new shares Elon is directly giving Tesla $20 million dollars, to pay their share of the fine. The "dilution" is beyond minimal. It's the right thing to do.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You thought he should buy it on the open market? That would be inviting the SEC to re-investigate for stock manipulation. Its not like they need the commission of a crime, just something that spun the right way almost looks off.

[edited to add: in essence, this is a money raise and very vanilla. The other would "look" like an attempt at insider trading since $TSLA is currently undervalued.]

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

 

[AlexS]

this 20mil purchase was announced few weeks ago by Tesla spokesman just after SEC settlement, the real news today is that they got the land in China.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You don't seem to understand the point of this transaction. By buying new shares Elon is directly giving Tesla $20 million dollars, to pay their share of the fine. The "dilution" is beyond minimal. It's the right thing to do.

I fully understand the transaction. You don’t seem to think independently from management. Have you ONCE criticized the management for the numerous mistakes made in the last year? This isn’t about the level of dilution; it’s the principle: Elon f’ed up, and Tesla should have fined him, instead of enriching him at the expense of existing shareholders. I’m not going to get into this with blind-faith followers.

 

[JRP3]

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

You're wrong on all points.

 

[ggr]

The main point of that article is Tesla has designed Model 3 to be too safe, so it's heavier and more difficult to manufacture comparing to similar sized cars.

I absolutely have to disagree with this observation. The M3P is by far the lightest feeling car I've ever driven, and I've driven some good ones...

But the Roadster is still more fun.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Analyze how much dilution this is please?

 

[KarenRei]

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

Market prices are not "insanely discounted prices". Elon could have bought the shares for the same price on the open market. The difference is that there's an associated insignificantly-small capital raise that negates the SEC fine. And thus... who cares?

 

[JRP3]

I fully understand the transaction. You don’t seem to think independently from management. Have you ONCE criticized the management for the numerous mistakes made in the last year? This isn’t about the level of dilution; it’s the principle: Elon f’ed up, and Tesla should have fined him, instead of enriching him at the expense of existing shareholders. I’m not going to get into this with blind-faith followers.

I simply disagree that Elon did anything wrong with his speculation about taking Tesla private in the first place. You swallowed the false narrative from the SEC hook line and sinker apparently, that's not critical thinking.

 

[KarenRei]

Analyze how much dilution this is please?

0,042%. Less than one in two thousandths.

 

[ZachF]

Analyze how much dilution this is please?

$20 million in shares vs ~$50 billion in total market cap? not much.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

*yawn*

There are so many things to be righteously upset about in the relative world of Elon and Tesla. This ain’t one of them. Yes, feel free to disagree, doesn’t change the facts.

 

[humbaba]

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

You can ignore the SEC's aggressive pursuit of Tesla/Musk. They are not. As others have said, inconsequential. You work so hard to make a mountain out of this molehill...

 

[AlexS]

Analyze how much dilution this is please?

0,04% I guess, this is nothing, but tesla got 20mil to pay fine

 

[jeewee3000]

I fully understand the transaction. You don’t seem to think independently from management. Have you ONCE criticized the management for the numerous mistakes made in the last year? This isn’t about the level of dilution; it’s the principle: Elon f’ed up, and Tesla should have fined him, instead of enriching him at the expense of existing shareholders. I’m not going to get into this with blind-faith followers.

I simply disagree that Elon did anything wrong with his speculation about taking Tesla private in the first place. You swallowed the false narrative from the SEC hook line and sinker apparently, that't not critical thinking.

Call me blind-faith, but I have to agree with JRP3 on this one. I don't see Elon buying $20M worth of shares as an admittance of guilt of any kind. Remember when Elon backed out of the SEC deal (the first one ), Tesla released a public statement saying they backed Elon in this decision.

There's only two reasons for the transaction:
1) more profit for Elon;
2) no (negative) effect on Q4 2018 profitability.