TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Last year the Nov 1 earnings report date was announced on Oct 19 - two weeks prior.

Going back a few quarters every earnings date has been a Wednesday. So, I suspect it might be 7th of November. That is what algorithms are predicting in some sites.

But this time, Nov 7th is one day after the mid-term elections. Tesla earnings will be completely swept over by the mid-term news and market reaction to it. So, they may change the Wednesday tradition. We don't know.

ps : Or may be pull it to October 31st.

If I wanted to highlight the earnings (say, its good) then, I'd do it on Oct 31st. If I want to bury the news I might do on Nov 7th

 

[tinm]

Ever since Elon's been talking about Iain M. Banks' Culture series, the prices have gone through the roof on Amazon. Thanks, Elon.

 

[brian45011]

Tesla was well exceeding NASDAQ due to the good news (NASDAQ down, TSLA up), now it's well below. This appears to be due to Passin leaving. A guy who I'll admit I hadn't even heard of before, and who doesn't show up on Tesla's org chart:

I wonder how long it's going to take people to realize that Tesla has a lot of people whose titles start with "President", "Vice President", "Chief", "Senior", etc.

Gil was among the three most highly compensated officers (other than the CEO and CFO) in 2010-2011. He was the KEY executive in converting the mothballed, cavernous white elephant of NUMMI into the Fremont Factory.

Gilbert Passin has served as our Vice President, Manufacturing since January 2010. Prior to joining us, Mr. Passin served in various positions at Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, an automobile manufacturer, from 2005 to January 2010 most recently as a General Manager of Production Engineering for West Coast and previously as a Vice President of Manufacturing, running both large scale production of the Corolla and Matrix models as well as production of the Lexus RX350 at the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada Cambridge plant. Mr. Passin also served as a Vice President and General Manager of Volvo Trucks North America at the New River Valley Plant, an automobile manufacturer, from 2002 to 2005 as well as Vice President and General Manager of Mack Trucks Inc. at the Winnsboro Assembly Facility from 2000 to 2002. Mr. Passin holds a National Engineering Degree from Ecole Centrale de Paris
​

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/dc391f64-eb75-4553-8197-65649ed7288c

Chew em up and spit em out. 16 direct reports?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Musk walks off stage. The Muse song (Victorious) that he previously used when detailing the (then-derided as implausible) plan for the Falcon 9 comes on:

I think you mean Muse - Uprising. As in expect Tesla stock to be up/rising.

 

[Brando]

The only problem with that is that quarterly earnings calls are conference phone calls, with no visuals.

So it would be a giant visual representation and FU that only Elon would see and understand.

Confusion secured!

The internet feed could show visuals - then the "main stream media press" would have to find later or someone would "leak it" to them and this would start another viral wave of babble.... what does it all mean ... the usual.

 

[brian45011]

I thought the agreement specifically precluded such an action. (So this seems to fly directly in the face of the settlement and could invalidate it.)

See paragraph 4

Scribd

(It's an end run around the literal wording.)

 

[Snapdragon III]

I fully understand the transaction. You don’t seem to think independently from management. Have you ONCE criticized the management for the numerous mistakes made in the last year? This isn’t about the level of dilution; it’s the principle: Elon f’ed up, and Tesla should have fined him, instead of enriching him at the expense of existing shareholders. I’m not going to get into this with blind-faith followers.

The story I remember, (I don't have the article) is that Elon wanted to just pay Tesla's portion of the fine, but the SEC explicitly forbid him from doing so, but agreed to this share purchase plan. I think this was Elon trying to do the stand up thing, within what the SEC would allow.

 

[EVNow]

The IV continues to go down, even though I'd expect IV to go up or, more reasonably, stay up as we are 2 to 3 weeks from earnings date. And, I should note, the HV continues to climb.

 

[Unpilot]

The IV continues to go down, even though I'd expect IV to go up or, more reasonably, stay up as we are 2 to 3 weeks from earnings date. And, I should note, the HV continues to climb.

View attachment 344843

Yep...I don't know what all that means.

 

[SpaceCash]

Yep...I don't know what all that means.

It means that options contracts are weirdly cheap right now, and if there's any decency in the world at all (questionable) then some out of the money call options, with expiry dates spread out over 2019, should net some crazy stupid cash for those daring enough to buy them

 

[Unpilot]

like if the SP goes up like we all think it should...bang I'm rich!?

 

[SpaceCash]

like if the SP goes up like we all think it should...bang I'm rich!?

essentially

Edit: I hold exclusively February and August 2019 call options. The reasoning is simple: There are two PROFITABLE earnings reports before feb expiry (unprecedented for TSLA to have multiple profitable quarters in a row), and 4 whole ass profitable earnings reports by mid August. This period will likely capture the most obvious exponential increase in Tesla production, revenue, and overall global visibility. This particular period over the next 5-10 months may go down in history. A year from now, most people will probably say they always knew Tesla was amazing and that the squeeze was inevitable and how bout that neuralink autopilot and blah blah blah... but I'll have been one of the few to make a killing off it.

 

[Intl Professor]

We do travel in time but because of our digestive tracts in only one direction. One can cheat with options, futures, and like devices. It is done all the time. Reminds me of the time I asked one of my children if they believed in baptism. "Hell dad, I've seen it done," he replied.

 

[SPadival]

Does anyone else think Passin is the guy that Elon is referring to when he told Munro that he has fired the "guy" ?

 

[Intl Professor]

Today was not typical. Today this thread was particularly occupied with discussion on
* Elon buying $20M in new shares
* The susceptibility of the Shanghai plant to natural disaster

This thread seems to be where the action is. I admit, I find myself coming this thread 90% of the time.

This thread is like a thread of threads, all threaded together.

A total fabric of discussion.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

they can't build a whole Gigafactory on stilts

I mean, they did build an entire GA line in a tent...

 

[FS_FRA]

@all: my sincere apologies for poking the natural disaster bear (pun intended) yesterday, and adding to the fluff in this thread!
I was merely trying to nip such a discussion in the bud early, as I (still) felt it is entirely immaterial to Shanghai GF in general, and Market Action in particular. I'll choose a better way to reply in the future...

 

[Singer3000]

"Munro said he admires Tesla’s technology, so he sent the company a pro bono list of 227 suggested improvements."

Gotta love the guy. Hope Elon got the memo.

Sounds like a cover letter for a job application to me.

 

[oneday]

@all: my sincere apologies for poking the natural disaster bear (pun intended) yesterday, and adding to the fluff in this thread!
I was merely trying to nip such a discussion in the bud early, as I (still) felt it is entirely immaterial to Shanghai GF in general, and Market Action in particular. I'll choose a better way to reply in the future...

I certainly don’t think it is immaterial to Shanghai GF. It is a legitimate concern. However, last I checked Tesla seemed to have some engineering talent. Although I was hoping they would set up a tent and maybe do some assembly there like Tilburg. That might not work so well during Typhoon season. Not sure, but I trust they’ll take these things into consideration.

 

[MP3Mike]

See paragraph 4

Scribd

(It's an end run around the literal wording.)

I don't see how it is an end-run around it. Tesla can't accept reimbursement, directly or indirectly, from any source. My fear is that if Elon follows through with the plan the SEC will jump on it and invalidate the settlement. Putting us in way worse shape.