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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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BTW, many people don't like to believe that there is a deal in the works between Saudi's and Tesla. Here is a portion of the Saudi Arabia "Vision 2030" promo video showing Tesla PowerPacks.


Pause at 3:57/3:59

Shorts will be squeezed if/when a multi-billion dollar deal is announced next week at the Saudi investment conference.
That's some A+ sleuthing! Very interesting.

I hope there is a big deal. But I hope it's kept hush hush until the Khashoggi thing mellows out.

I don't think we or anyone should back out of any deal w/ the Saudi's over the murder. I have a contrarian view - they should have to hire/pay more towards good projects - for stuff like solar that's good for the world - it's a way they can repent.
 
That second one's a rumor coming from a guy (carsonight) who has contacts inside the Gigafactory. I rate it "probably sort of true", i.e. I believe the lines are upgraded and faster, but I think "50% greater throughput" may be the usual wild optimism.

Me: "It's unconfirmed that the new lines will have higher individual output."

carsonight (2 hours ago):
A Panasonic employee explained how the new machines will be faster, but I admit it went over me at an altitude of about 5000 feet. Part of it has to do with redesigned "rollers", and part to do with computer programming, but I am about as useful in explaining what I was told as if a theoretical physicist had been talking to me. Agreed that it's unconfirmed and that it will happen if it happens.
 
You and rob stark may be correct, but automotive assembly seems like a competitive disadvantage at this time.

There is nothing IMO that Detroit,Nissan,Honda,or Hyundai can do better.

They can do it cheaper. As of now.

Toyota-Lexus, VW-Audi-Porsche, Daimler, and BMW can achieve better premium feeling vehicles. Part panel gaps, part sounds like thud of door closing, part solidity of things like dash.

People are ok with engine drone noises. Premium car buyers are generally not ok with wind noise and road/tire noise coming into the cabin. Tesla is in a strategic disadvantage here because they don't have engine white noise blocking out those unacceptable noises.

In part the problem is production engineering, diseconomies of scale, and to a large degree getting new employees up to speed when growing volume on average 50% plus.

IMO the legacy automakers have bigger problems on the horizon.
 
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Saudi Arabia has always been barbaric and evil, since it was founded by a warlord in a pact with murderous, fanatical iconoclastic religious extremists. They're no better than the Lord's Resistance Army, they just get away with stuff because they have oil and oil is valuable. People are just noticing Saudi Arabia's evil more lately -- maybe because we're less dependent on oil, so less inclined to turn a blind eye? It's also severely unstable and a dangerous place to visit what with the government-sanctioned kidnappings. I hope nobody important from Tesla ever even *goes* there; it's not safe. If the Saudis want to buy stock on the NASDAQ, I guess we can't stop them, but if they want to talk to Tesla, they should have to come to California.
Elon went there for a conference years ago. You can find it on youtube. He does look quite out of place - he's up there talking about alternative energy to a room fool of Saudi oil lords. I think it's fairly safe for western business people.
 
Also note another big problem: current outstanding ICE auto loans in the U.S. are more than a trillion dollars.

Any jump in expected depreciation rates is going to affect those too. Even if the rate of non-performing auto loans doesn't change significantly, their rating will become worse and they can be used less as sources of financing - at a time when ICE carmakers need sources of financing the most, to pay for the painful conversion into the EV era.

Just check auto loans:
fredgraph.png


That's over 1.1 trillion dollars, growing rapidly - and 98% backed by ICE cars...

If depreciation speeds up then the securitization of these loans will suffer retroactively, which, considering the trillion dollar value, might create a bigger financial shock than the reduction of new loan originations.

Note how this is helping Tesla: relative improvement in depreciation rates will make Tesla purchase financing less expensive and ICE financing more expensive. Given that 85% of new car sales are financed, and the average new car loan amount is over $30,000, we are not far away from the point where you can get a $35k-$45k Tesla with very little down payment and a lower monthly rate than an ICE vehicle with the same price and better future expected resale value.

Once that happens it's checkmate for large sections of the ICE industry, IMO.

Is there a way to short the securitization of ICE loans? Sorta joking... but also serious. Kinda reminds me of the movie the Big Short. You might be onto something. Obviously the inflection won't happen for a while but... kinda makes you think.
 
adadf

Elon went there for a conference years ago. You can find it on youtube. He does look quite out of place - he's up there talking about alternative energy to a room fool of Saudi oil lords. I think it's fairly safe for western business people.

I thought this when I watched it a while back. They loved him too, standing ovation I believe. That struck me....
 
170,000,000 Total Shares
-40,000,000 Held By Musk
-90,000,000 Held by institutions and early retail longs with strong hands (T. Rowe Price alone holds 17,000,000 shares, doubt they are selling at these levels)
=40,000,000 shares that weak longs and institutions trade with

So yes, shorts can control the price

*Forgot to add the Saudi's own 8,000,000 shares, and probably accumulated more at these depressed prices. I feel like this stock is a coiled spring and will jump just like AMD did from $9 to $34

Stupid and probably unrealistic thought I’ve been entertaining for a while now: can’t a person, company, fund or institution with very deep pockets gobble up all those 40 million free shares (and any more that come available)?

Slowly over a period of several months, so as not to push up SP too much. And preferably timed so that it takes the longest time before the stake has to be announced.

At current SP it would cost 10 billion, but if SP slowly goes up maybe 15 billion. A lot of money, but not out of reach for some parties in this world. More money would have been involved in the going private venture.

At the end of the buying liquidity would dry up and the short squeeze would happen for sure. And fhe ownership situation would be comparable to what it would be under a private Tesla.

Fire away! (paraphrasing another poster) :rolleyes:
 
Painting in tunnels underneath the factory?
I do think they could optimize the Fremont land better. For ex, parking is tight - build a parking garage! Consolidate the parking into a smaller footprint by building up, way up! Then convert the prior parking land (now no longer needed for parking) to add'l factory space.
 
As it's weekend, thought thismay make interesting reading following on from the discussion of Detroit vs Silicon Valley. British Leyland workers fighting to save the Speke plant in 1978

Rumours of closure, conflicting figures for job losses and a fight to survive in a global car industry - it could have been Vauxhall or Jaguar in 2009, but this story is set on a windswept site at Speke in 1978.

British Leyland's Speke factory symbolised all that was wrong with UK car manufacturing in the dark days of the 1970s, a million miles away from the high performing plants of today at Ellesmere Port and Halewood.

On 9, 10 and 11 December BBC North West Tonight is examining how far the regions car industry has come from those troubled days, and what the future holds.

In 1978 British Leyland's Speke Number Two plant was under threat of closure, afflicted by a series of crippling strikes, low sales of the TR7 it manufactured, and a history of poor industrial relations coupled with inefficiencies.

In 1959, Triumph, as it was then known, had relocated to Speke after the government 'twisted its arm'.



_46878975_tr7a.jpg

The car that was the beginning of the end for Speke, the Triumph TR7
The Speke factory built the Triumph Herald, Vitesse, 1300 and others through the 1960s.

In 1970 British Leyland, who had taken over Triumph, spent £10.5 million building Speke Number Two plant, it was one of the most modern and best equipped plants in Europe designed to build 100,000 vehicles a year all under one roof.

When BBC Nationwide visited in February 1978 the plant only had a few months of life left.

Workers were just returning to work, after a 17 week strike, to fight plans to close the site.

Graham Turner an Industrial Journalist gave his opinions on the problems facing the British Leyland plant in Speke, "The management over the years have I think, been very soft and they've let themselves get in to a position where the shop stewards virtually run the plant," he told BBC Nationwide in 1978.

"They are a pseudo management, the managers can hardly move a foot without getting the agreement of the shop stewards.

"There's a splendid thing called the Mutuality Agreement whose main purpose it seems to me is to stop the place being managed at all."



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There's a very good case for saying Speke is one of the most inefficient car companies, not just in Leyland, but in the world.
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Industrial Journalist Graham Turner speaking in 1978
The factory had been completely turned over to the production of the Triumph TR7, a sports car that was beset by reliability problems.

The TR7 was originally launched in 1974 to target the North American market, but after disappointing sales across the Atlantic it was relaunched in 1976 for the British market.

Workers at the plant didn't have a high opinion of the car, "This car is a disgrace," one told the BBC.

"It never sold, despite all that management have done is say it would be the greatest export they ever had for Leyland.

"It's a load of bloody rubbish that car, one load of bloody rubbish."

Another worker blamed management mistakes for Speke's plight, "There was one time on the TR7 they had 5000 left hand wings for the front end and they sent down to Coventry for 5000 right hand wings," he explained.

"And what happened? They sent 5000 left hands up.

"Now that laid us off for three days, through stupid management.

"That's nothing to do with us, but this has gone on time and time again.

"It's gone beyond a joke now."



_46879043_worker2.jpg

Workers blamed 'stupid management' for the plant's failures
While the TR7's stuttering sales were a major issue for British Leyland, Graham Turner viewed the future of Speke as gloomy, because of a number of inefficiencies at the plant, "Speke is at the bottom of the league - the Leyland league - in so many ways and that's saying a lot," he said.

"If you take productivity Leyland is not a high productivity company and Speke is at the bottom of the productivity league. It's only half as efficient as Abingdon.

"Speke is top of the league for absenteeism, more than double the company average. On Monday's and Friday's anywhere between 15% to 25%.

"Over-manning is 25% worse than the next Leyland plant.

"All that adds up to a highly inefficient plant in a highly inefficient company.

"There's a very good case for saying Speke is one of the most inefficient car companies, not just in Leyland, but in the world."

In 1978 there was also a perception that industry on Merseyside suffered because of the areas reputation for strikes and poor industrial relations', Nationwide reported that "People talk of the so called 'Merseyside Disease', the idea that somehow people here don't work as hard as in other parts of Britain."



_46879044_plant.jpg

The plant shut for good in 1981, the site is now a supermarket
One British Leyland worker thought the problems were a legacy of Liverpool's dock system of labour, "I think it dates back this to our grandfathers and the time when they were on the docks in pens," he told Nationwide.

"It's just a thing that they hate management.

"They don't really hate them, but it dates back to that time when you were picked if your face fitted or if you'd work for less money.

"Even if you work say in Tesco, you still have a little thing about the management."

Workers at Speke were fighting to save their jobs, launching a 'Right To Work' campaign in an effort to keep the plant open.

It would ultimately prove fruitless as the globalisation of the car industry took it's toll, first on Speke, and ultimately on British Leyland.

As Graham Turner recognised in 1978 the company was now competing on a different level, "A 'Right To Work' campaign is alright," he said.

"But I don't think they can have 'A Right To Work When You Feel Like It' campaign, as unfortunately in the Big League that does not work.

"They're not playing in the Merseyside and District Football League, they're playing in a very tough world league."

"I'm afraid they've not been playing the kind of game that keeps you in that league, it just brings relegation and sometimes kills the club."

In May 1978 British Leyland workers at Speke withdrew their opposition to the closure of Speke Number Two and in 1981 all car production ended on the site with closure of the body plant at Speke Number One.
 
That's some A+ sleuthing! Very interesting.

I hope there is a big deal. But I hope it's kept hush hush until the Khashoggi thing mellows out.

I don't think we or anyone should back out of any deal w/ the Saudi's over the murder. I have a contrarian view - they should have to hire/pay more towards good projects - for stuff like solar that's good for the world - it's a way they can repent.
You’re right. Money is money. We can use Saudi money and they can use a better future for their people. Everyone benefits
Stupid and probably unrealistic thought I’ve been entertaining for a while now: can’t a person, company, fund or institution with very deep pockets gobble up all those 40 million free shares (and any more that come available)?

Slowly over a period of several months, so as not to push up SP too much. And preferably timed so that it takes the longest time before the stake has to be announced.

At current SP it would cost 10 billion, but if SP slowly goes up maybe 15 billion. A lot of money, but not out of reach for some parties in this world. More money would have been involved in the going private venture.

At the end of the buying liquidity would dry up and the short squeeze would happen for sure. And fhe ownership situation would be comparable to what it would be under a private Tesla.

Fire away! (paraphrasing another poster) :rolleyes:

I feel like that is exactly what is happening. We are forcefully pinned in this new trading range. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs we’re hired by Elon to help take Tesla private. Doesn’t take much imagination to realize that they are helping Saudi’s/whoever slowly pick up shares at almost 50% off.

If this is what’s happening, expect a squeeze of biblical proportions. It will be all over the news. And it will be free advertising for Tesla, something Elon loves! Lol
 
Stupid and probably unrealistic thought I’ve been entertaining for a while now: can’t a person, company, fund or institution with very deep pockets gobble up all those 40 million free shares (and any more that come available)?

Certainly some of Tesla's enemies have done so already, and are using their equity in an attempt to damage Tesla. At least one of them dumped over a million shares of TSLA in the first minute of the 'Bloomberg Bare Raid' on Sep 18. This is a group that can afford to throw away 30 million dollars in a minute to make a point. It's also a warning to others. All done before the SEC lawsuit was filed. Jus' sayin

Bloomberg.Bear.raid.2018-09-18.png
 
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I feel like that is exactly what is happening. We are forcefully pinned in this new trading range. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs we’re hired by Elon to help take Tesla private. Doesn’t take much imagination to realize that they are helping Saudi’s/whoever slowly pick up shares at almost 50% off.

If this is what’s happening, expect a squeeze of biblical proportions. It will be all over the news. And it will be free advertising for Tesla, something Elon loves! Lol

If that were already happening, we would see liquidity slowly dry up. Any signs of that? Are the daily volumes lower?

Elon is very smart. He gave up on going private very quickly, but hired top advisors at the last moment. For what? Maybe something is brewing, right under our noses.
 
Are you sure that Fact Checking is ONE person and not an 'information centre'?!

Seems way too brilliant to be one person and the 'Name' is a giveaway...…….

" You answer the engineering bit and I'll tackle the financials and he can do the fill-in bits and we need it by 4.00pm..."
Interesting thought. But we have seen quite a few newcomers arrive and start blitzing out the quality posts. FC is right up there but does make the odd mistake I think would be captured in a QC process it they were a real information centre.

We know Neroden is one person and they go on information blitzes that are equal to FC, and probably with a deeper level of insight.

No offence to anyone, I am very grateful the quality content from all.
 
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