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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Elon's voice is going to be on tape delay. I expect to hear beeps whenever SEC / PEDO / 420, etc comes up.


Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Adam Jonas:
Hey Elon, great Q

Elon Musk - TSLA
How many model 3s did you estimate we can deliver 2018, you bonebeeeeeeeeeeeps !?

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Key words are 'portions of'. They're not going to fully produce cars in China in 2019. That's crazy talk. Probably final assembly, that sort of thing.

I love that this shareholder letter was clearly written to take apart the naysayer arguments:
-Minimal ZEV credits. Can't say the net income came from ZEV.
-Shows Model 3 the #1 vehicle by revenue
-Calls out stable production despite introduction of AWD and reduction of labor hours. It's tough to get too worked up about missing production goals when the product mix and margin skyrocketed (way past Q3 guidance for margin).
-Nukes the 'parking lot' theory directly
-Calls out the crazy trade-up trend for Model 3, as well as the fact that Europe's market for the 3's vehicle class is > 2X the US's, and that orders are coming in the next two months for Europe/China.
-Directly addresses the vehicle efficiency deficiency of new 'competition' (eg I-Pace).
-Reaffirms guidance for profitability in Q4
-Cash/equiv = $3.5B, and guided to increase significantly in Q4 while paying off $230M in notes during Q4. What was that about March notes?

Other things I like:
-They guide for increased Model 3 production/deliveries, but do not tie themselves to a specific wildly-optimistic number. With such a positive report, I'm glad they didn't include unnecessary poison pills like that.
-Reaffirms that they plan to increase service infrastructure investment in Q4. I was a tiny bit afraid that they were going to keep up with the minimal expansion for another quarter, and I don't think they could afford to do that given the sales volume.

If I had to find a complaint, it's that... Uhh, OK, how about that the solar roof is still clearly not ramping in any significant way. Yeah, that's the ticket. Hang your hat on that, shorty air force.

At the risk of creating a disturbance in the force, I'm whipping this puppy out once more...View attachment 346682

I imagine they'll start by replicating one of the GA lines, setting up a paint shop, sourcing a bunch of the parts which aren't vertically integrated locally (some might already be), and shipping over BIW's and packs etc. This gets them building locally assembled even if most parts are still imported to China.

Next step is to get the BIW line copied, and ship in stamped panels to be welded locally.

Next step is to get the stamping line copied.

Somewhere in parallel with the above, cell production will be brought up, leading to local pack production. Whenever it's ready, start using it.

Similarly, other vertically integrated parts (seats, motors, ... some of the plastics they insourced for Fremont production they might actually outsource to local Chinese plastics molding companies, though they might also keep it insourced).

You start with something that is a bit more than Tilburg (I'm not sure they'll start with a Tilburg style operation, might just jump from importing Fremont fully assembled cars to locally GA'd ones), and bring up bits and pieces as you can and eventually you're building locally produced cars.
 
The whole point is one should never write off the manufacturing of an entire country.

You want a car with Japanese tires, airbags, and accelerators?

NHTSA: 148 deaths linked to Firestone tires

Extreme Heat Is Making Takata Airbags Explode, Prompting a Recall

2009–11 Toyota vehicle recalls - Wikipedia

I buy and manufacturer goods in China. I know what I'm talking about here. IT IS THE PRODUCTION AND QA PROCESS. Not the country of origin.

Please help some of your Australian and New Zealand friends be less ignorant and racist.

China did not help itself by being the largest exporter of low cost goods.

That helped their economy and hurt their image.

Not my, their, or anybody’s fault but China’s that their business model encouraged complete crap products. I work as a nuclear engineer who really cares about materials.

Chinese steel is trash and not allowed in my shop.

Any Chinese heat treatment, grinding, or CBC work is not allowed in my shop.

It isn’t because I’m a racist, i don’t associate the goods with a Chinese person, I associate it with their manufacturing culture which is “cheap fast and ****ed up” - 100% of the time it is out of spec dimensionally, hardness, and takes forever to clear customs.

I’ve tried every major vendor for my speciality.

It is very easy to pick the low cost option, which they always are by giant percentages. And it’s a giant waste of money every time. We’re lucky if we can rework it.

They’ve gone overboard earning the stereotype.

ITS ALL *sugar*.
 
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Tesla starts releasing Navigate on Autopilot feature with disappointing caveat, update with UI changes

What on earth is Fred doing using the word "disappointing" in this! I am thinking it is great given that Elon can now say Nav on autopilot is released tonight etc. The comments are also positive.
I'm totally fine with this rollout of Nav on AP. It's hard for the user to trust AP's auto lane changing decisions when the display (even if not actually representative of what drives the car's decisions) has vehicles warping all over and colliding with each other constantly, and often is slow to show cars that approach next to you in the blind spot areas ..
 
There may come a time where Chinese sourced goods are superior in quality (imo only, coming very soon, many suppliers compete with each other).

Maybe, but not today.

And it takes 20 years for reputation to catch up to reality.

It took Toyota over 20 years grinding away in the USA before the Made in Japan label became acceptable in the USA.
 
No one will see a Chinese Tesla car outside of China.

Because Tesla is not exporting Chinese made Teslas.

YET.

Mexico makes far better vehicles than China?

It isn’t because I’m a racist, it’s because 100% of the time it is out of spec dimensionally, hardness, and takes forever to clear customs.

I’ve tried every major vendor for my speciality.

It is very easy to pick the low cost option, which they always are by giant percentages. And it’s a giant waste of money every time. We’re lucky if we can rework it.

Funny. Steel is one of the manufacturing imports I work with. Happy to work with you to ensure stuff arrives in spec and at a good price. Are you a purchase decision maker? We should talk. I still stand by its production and QA - not country of origin.

I'll air freight you some samples. If it can't pass your requirements, I'll STFU on this topic..
 
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Maybe, but not today.

And it takes 20 years for reputation to catch up to reality.

It took Toyota over 20 years grinding away in the USA before the Made in Japan label became acceptable in the USA.

Chinese manufacturing for medium and high tier products is actually very, very, good. Most people don't realize the intense level of competition that exists in China. There is always someone looking to eat your lunch. It spurs things like IP theft and other negatives, but it also does serve as a catalyst for quality manufacturers to build good products and develop their reputations.

That's why if you buy something on Amazon from China, the quality of service you get is amazing. If you're unhappy with anything at all, vendors are often willing to offer you a full refund and send you a replacement product.

It's actually incredibly naive (and slightly racist) to think that a whole country is only good at manufacturing defective products. I would highly recommend a visit to China, it is truly eye-opening.
 
The whole point is one should never write off the manufacturing of an entire country.

You want a car with Japanese tires, airbags, and accelerators?

NHTSA: 148 deaths linked to Firestone tires

Extreme Heat Is Making Takata Airbags Explode, Prompting a Recall

2009–11 Toyota vehicle recalls - Wikipedia

I buy and manufacturer goods in China. I know what I'm talking about here. IT IS THE PRODUCTION AND QA PROCESS. Not the country of origin.

Please help some of your Australian and New Zealand friends be less ignorant and racist.

Tesla is an AMERICAN CAR (even though Tesla really belongs to the entire world), and will always be seen as such.
From what I've heard, the main reason China gets a bad rap for production is that the west keeps trying to negotiate down production costs expecting the end result to match the original approved production prototypes. In the west you might haggle without changing anything in production, the Chinese apparently will happily reduce production costs to maintain their margins by skimping on whatever it takes to meat your price target. So a difference in expectations.

After all, plenty of high end things come from China. Cell phones, for example. You just have to be willing to pay the actual production costs (+ margin) and not try to haggle them down below that point.
 
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