TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Johan]

You need to put charges racism aside.

I wouldn't buy a car made in Russia or Bulgaria either. But I would buy a Japanese car. Just like many Australians and New Zealanders do.

I would also buy a car made in a US factory that has Russian and Bulgarian immigrants working there.

Or any other immigrant.


BTW Yes, the Chinese can put a man in space. Doesn't mean they make great cars.

Lots of Chinese themselves will pay a premium for a car Made in Germany or USA over a virtually identical one made in China.

With regard to a Tesla factory in China I think we're going to have to throw many prior assumptions aside. Yes domestic Chinese cars are poor quality, but that has as much to do with them being designed and developed in China as to do with them being built there. I truly believe that if there is a company that could put togheter a really high quality manufacturing operation in China, even with something as complex and demanding as a car, it would be Tesla. This hasn't been done or really attempted by any of the big US, Japanse, Korean or European OEMs before, at least not whole heartedly.

 

[NicoV]

I respected him then and I continue to respect him. He's way more thorough than the GS/UBS/JPM/ML/Barclays tribe. Let's be honest, Elon makes way more complicated modelling something that is already complicated...

I thought he had one of the best analyses of Tesla, and he can also present that very well on TV, but his downgrade was extreme.

 

[RobStark]

Above are valid points. But I would share a perspective that depending on the supplier in China, some of their products and production is top notch. I've dealt with and sourced many items directly from China, and have had for the most part great experience and quality. Example: Carbon fiber mountain bike handlebar-- riding on rough trails with a full suspension bike, my life did actually depend upon it. Handlebar remains solid, light and without fail despite multiple spills.

It took the Japanese and S Koreans 20 years after they started making great products for most people in the West to accept that they make great products and buy Korean and Japanese cars.

It is the second most expensive purchase after a home for most people and middle class consumers are generally very risk averse.

There is a reason Tesla is doing this and it is not because transportation from California to Australia, Japan, and South Korea is cheaper than shipping from China.

 

[jbih]

I hope you don’t work for Tesla.

I expect a great party at every single Tesla office at the moment. They'd better stop the factory for a few hours.

 

[30seconds]

Easily the best 10-K of all time for Tesla. Way more meaningful than 2013 because now they have a clear lead on global scale for a superior product line.

 

[dailo]

Is there anyway to get more info about the ZEV credits sold? I see they got $52 million from ZEV credits, but wonder how many were sold and at what price.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Really, not all 25M Australians think exactly the same?

A vid is going to change consumer preference from not wanting a Made in China car to wanting one.

Nobody will see a Chinese car. They will see a Tesla - US brand.

 

[2virgule5]

Tesla is really killing productivity at my office. Everyone has basically stopped working and waiting for the earnings call.

You are all working @Ford ???

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

What are the odds we'll get that S&P 500 inclusion before my June 2019 calls expire?

I look forward to that Moody's upgrade and looking at the bond values those bears think is proof pudding that Tesla is screwed.

 

[LordAstinus]

I thought he had one of the best analyses of Tesla, and he can also present that very well on TV, but his downgrade was extreme.

He's a smart guy. He'll digest the new information and, eventually, will update his analysis. Maybe tomorrow or maybe once the new chairman and board members are presented.

 

[Fact Checking]

Current AH price of $320.

Just a quick estimate based on the $811m cash flow figure in Q3: even if Tesla stopped the ramp-up here and didn't grow, this suggests future (unencumbered) income of 811m*4/170m*20 = ~$380 per share valuation on a cash generation basis, with zero growth premium.

Assume growth to 10k/units worldwide and you can multiply that some more ...

So unless you absolutely think shorts are going to depress the price come the morning, or that we are shortly before a recession, you might want to ride this rocket to the Moon ... or to Mars:

(Not advice.)

 

[mikevbf]

Does local sourcing mean Tesla will get parts from the venders BMW uses after BMW files for bankruptcy?..... well at least in Europe right?

I imagine part of the sourcing they are talking about is for the components of the battery cells. One of the big advantage Chinese battery producers have is the readily available local minerals for producing their batteries. This could be a huge cost savings for Chinese produced Tesla batteries.

 

[wipster]

Just wait until they introduce the SR and allow leasing for the M3... gonna open up a whole new market. Just hope they're gonna be able to service it (as in make enough cars)!

I predict that 2019 should be a pretty damn good year, yes I do.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

From the letter

"Production in China will be designated only for local customers."

I know a lot of Australians, New Zealanders, and other Asians were saying they would not buy or strongly reconsider Model 3 if only Made in China versions were available locally.

Implied racism aside, China can suck up all of GF3's production easily, so there's no point exporting it anywhere.

 

[larmor]

It took the Japanese and S Koreans 20 years after they started making great products for most people in the West to accept that they make great products and buy Korean and Japanese cars.

It is the second most expensive purchase after a home for most people and middle class consumers are generally very risk averse.

There is a reason Tesla is doing this and it is not because transportation from California to Australia, Japan, and South Korea is cheaper than shipping from China.

There may come a time where Chinese sourced goods are superior in quality (imo only, coming very soon, many suppliers compete with each other).

 

[MXWing]

You need to put charges racism aside.

I wouldn't buy a car made in Russia or Bulgaria either. But I would buy a Japanese car. Just like many Australians and New Zealanders do.

I would also buy a car made in a US factory that has Russian and Bulgarian immigrants working there.

Or any other immigrant.


BTW Yes, the Chinese can put a man in space. Doesn't mean they make great cars.

Lots of Chinese themselves will pay a premium for a car Made in Germany or USA over a virtually identical one made in China.

The whole point is one should never write off the manufacturing of an entire country.

You want a car with Japanese tires, airbags, and accelerators?

NHTSA: 148 deaths linked to Firestone tires

Extreme Heat Is Making Takata Airbags Explode, Prompting a Recall

2009–11 Toyota vehicle recalls - Wikipedia

I buy and manufacturer goods in China. I know what I'm talking about here. IT IS THE PRODUCTION AND QA PROCESS. Not the country of origin.

Please help some of your Australian and New Zealand friends be less ignorant and racist.

Tesla is an AMERICAN CAR (even though Tesla really belongs to the entire world), and will always be seen as such.

 

[azaz]

man once they open up leasing, thats such a massive market right there

 

[ls7corvete]

Just wait until they introduce the SR and allow leasing for the M3... gonna open up a whole new market. Just hope they're gonna be able to service it (as in make enough cars)!

I predict that 2019 should be a pretty damn good year, yes I do.

Wait times for new cars will continue to be very long.

 

[MP3Mike]

You forgot to add key item to your list : customer deposits increased. So backlog is intact.

No they didn't: "Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q2 to $906 million as we continue to work through our Model 3 backlog."

 

[Boomer19]

Why are you holding back? My shrinks says it's good to say what you really feel.

Hey, lol, I hear ya.
But how am I supposed to respond to something like that? he’s not even shy about hating Elon and Tesla. These are supposed to be journalists! I’ve never seen behavior like that before. Basically bragging that he’s not going to give em or Tesla a fair shake. BS! I’m not a journalist, but you can bet you @$$ if I was, I’d be constantly self analyzing and anxious about being professional and fair, out of fear of being perceived to be lacking integrity. That is always my biggest fear. But nobody cares anymore.
Integrity, seeping from journalism by the minute.
Let them choke on it!