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Mom! MOOOOOMMM!!! Uncle Elon's tweeting weird s**t again!
....I'l have what he's having.
Once we get past the mid-terms, then a good chairman/board member announcement could trigger a move above ATH. What would really seal it would be early Model Y/Pickup reveal (Dec/Jan).
No one is arguing it's going to be a VW like squeeze, it will be a Tesla 2018/19 squeeze, humans have the tendency to look to the past, this will have a unique pattern of its own.
It's not been a very competitive market. There are few companies even capable of bidding for any given project. Relatively little is generally invested in improving tech between contracts, and once a contract is landed there's a strong disincentive to change anything while it's in progress.
After Musk announced his plans for TBC, I went and started digging through trade publications, as a sort of cross check of what he was claiming. And found that basically everything matched up with what he was stating. With regard to every aspect of tunneling, the theoretical maximum speed could be summed up as "We have no bloody idea, but we're certainly not there - nobody's really put forth the money to try to find out".
That's not that there haven't been advancements in TBMs in the past decade - there absolutely have been. But they've been slow and incremental - just your typical "some company making small changes to give them an advantage against one or two regional competitors in bidding when the next project contract comes up" scenarios. Disrupting such "slow and incremental" industries is Elon's bread and butter.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Haven't caught up with all of this thread, so not sure if it has been posted yet. Over at Reddit someone linked the amended civil suit against Musk/Tesla on 2017 production targets. It looks like they will have dozens of former employees (including some high ranking ones) going on the record saying they told Elon his deadlines are impossible for several reasons and that cars were built by hand when he said they can be at 5k in a few months.
Document attached to this post.
Not a legal expert and have only gotten through the first 7 FEs (former employees) but in my opinion all such reasoning may "prove" is that Musk is a bad manager. He fired people who told him it can't be done and than those people turned out to be right. Maybe not even for the reasons they thought were problematic, just overall. So the company may have a bad manager but that is the sharholders' decision whether he should be fired for that or not - and they clearly think he shouldn't be.
So two additional points may be, whether he tried to conceal the difficulties and whether had made some personal gain.
On concealing difficulties, he was practically talking about "production hell" 24/7 so it is absurd to say investors had no clue.
On personal gain, I think he never sold shares in any significant quantity.
Any legal kinds care to share their opinion?
Document attached to this post.
Not a legal expert and have only gotten through the first 7 FEs (former employees) but in my opinion all such reasoning may "prove" is that Musk is a bad manager. He fired people who told him it can't be done and than those people turned out to be right. Maybe not even for the reasons they thought were problematic, just overall. So the company may have a bad manager but that is the sharholders' decision whether he should be fired for that or not - and they clearly think he shouldn't be.
So two additional points may be, whether he tried to conceal the difficulties and whether had made some personal gain.
On concealing difficulties, he was practically talking about "production hell" 24/7 so it is absurd to say investors had no clue.
On personal gain, I think he never sold shares in any significant quantity.
Any legal kinds care to share their opinion?
Isn't that the amended one? The original was in August, it was dismissed and they they amended it on 9/28.
From FE1
It seems that FE1's estimate for mass production was beaten so not sure why Elon should have listened to him. Seems very weak to use him as answer for what is possible and not. Should Elon also have listened to employees saying that making electric cars profitable was impossible? Elon likes people who believes things can get done if you are clever enough and work hard enough, if you want a to invest in a company of naysayers then there are plenty of other companies to choose from.
Setting targets that are almost impossible to reach, firing people that say it can’t be done and that they need more time is not necessarily ‘bad management’. It’s Elons management style and it gets things done much faster than other approaches would. He doesn’t know slow, he doesn’t know impossible. Sure, it’s not fun for those getting fired and it doesn’t make the first product runs perfect. But it’s necessary to take huge steps and to beat the competition.
Teslarati has a nice article about this management style at SpaceX (Starlink):
SpaceX's Starlink satellites "happy and healthy" as Elon Musk fires managers and VP
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Oh I agree with you. We all know that's his management style. May be the right one, may not be, but certainly not "criminal". I was referring to it as "bad" as in what all these testimonies may be saying vs what they lawsuit claims.
About Management style: I have seen a very good interview with Gwynne lately where the interviewer ask what she does if Elon comes with an impossible requests.
She said that she does listen first and never said its impossible but receives it instead, takes it with her and thinks over it. Talking to teams and working on it often relatives it and sometimes over time you are able to make the impossible possible.
This is just from memory and mixed with my personal experience about impossible goals but does hit the point I want to make.
If Elon ask you the impossible you just should not say: "No, thats impossible".
Why not? Well first of all he may fire you right away for a very good reason and that is not that you said it is impossible but you declined without knowing if some of it may be possible if you work on it. You actually do not know yet if it is really impossible in fact you can't. This is a very important distinction.
Stating something is impossible right after the question is asked gives a good understanding to what extend you are intellectually able to accept solutions you do not have yet and may not have for a while. I shows that you know you do not know. That mindset is crucial for any start up.
Another example: when Elon asked a rocket engineer why a rocket engine is although less parts more expensive than a car with more parts you better think twice before you answer.
In most cases people do not understand the very true core of that question and answer something else. That shows Elon there is no real communication happening.
For that reason I understand very well that Elon does fire people and get erratic as well as Steve Jobs did.
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Wasted opportunity to make a product that could be a huge seller. Guess it's up to that bollinger guy to make an electric truck that will compete with the real truck market. Shame. Also boosts FUD ammo when they get to blast elon's movie-prop truck that no one wants.
I hate to agree with this. If it's anything like the concept they teased at the Semi reveal... I mean, that's a joke. What exactly is the market for luxury six-seater sports-unimogs that are so wide that you can't park them in town and so tall that they wouldn't fit in parking garages regardless? How would that pair with, "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy"?
If it's not a light truck, then it's extremely disappointing - to me both as a customer and as an investor.
My guess is that it will not be overly difficult for Tesla to design a regular truck to compete with the current range in terms of performance they already have the required components on their current line-up, it's really just a different cabin.
If cyberpunk truck doesn't sell I'm sure they can spool up a regular truck line in a relatively short space of time. I.e. a couple of years.
A failed truck will also not do enough damage to endanger the company while sexy + semi are selling like hotcakes.
First practical matters. I didn't bother to read it beyond Nature of the Action because the plaintiffs didn't bother with finding or collecting facts (I don't believe there would be any), instead the typical wrongdoing collected were of the type:
"the company knew that, at a minimum, it needed to begin installing the automated lines at least 10-12 months before mass production could be achieved."
Easy factual checks on Tesla's performance (the best would redesign of the battery pack lines in second half of 2017, and conveyors adjustments in april-may 2018) show that such statements forming the base of the lawsuit are a BS.
But.....
Legally the mere idea of such trial is a clusterf#ck. Trying to measure managers performance by their promises will blow on one side existing status quo when advertisements are "advertisements", on another side it will open room for back-timed lawsuits giving another instrument for activist shareholders and generally will start a witch-hunt automatically breaking SEC as an institution.
If it would go to the trials, the sewers will go open. This case will never go to trial obviously. I am extremely curious as of why SEC San-Fransisco is not cleansed yet. When the backlash in congress will hit the walls it will be bad for anything SEC related.
This trial idea was as I stated immediately is to harass Tesla's employees and try to stall administrative activities in the company. I don't believe it was supposed to become public.
That's my hope - that they'd be simultaneously designing Model Y and Pickup for the same platform, with an adaptive body line to accommodate the (unibody) frame variations, and a different rear suspension for the pickup. But the comments about it being a six-seater have left me suspecting that they really weren't kidding with that ridiculous unimog concept based on Semi from a while back.
If that's the route they choose to go down then I have serious concerns that this may be their next vehicle line:
not that, but here is an actuality, a 1949 Mercury coupe w/tesla 85kW batteryThat's my hope - that they'd be simultaneously designing Model Y and Pickup for the same platform, with an adaptive body line to accommodate the (unibody) frame variations, and a different rear suspension for the pickup. But the comments about it being a six-seater have left me suspecting that they really weren't kidding with that ridiculous unimog concept based on Semi from a while back.
If that's the route they choose to go down then I have serious concerns that this may be their next vehicle line:
https://www.carscoops.com/2018/10/i...-batteries-freight-train-torque/#lg=1&slide=3
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