TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

"critical but fair albeit a little rushed" - really? about what? the media/reporter circus?

I never said ANYTHING about what Elon said in my comment. Only about how Kara never seemed to have understood most anything Elon was trying to explain - Kara did condescending agree at every pause - interrupting Elon constantly. pathetic interview IMHO.

That's not condescending and it's not interrupting, that's polite and supportive conversation. You probably were brought up with a different conversational style. Have you read the works of Deborah Tannen?

 

[AZRI11]

Incoming FUD Alert:

By the usual suspects - Reveal podcast to drop soon on "worker safety".

After being called out for hiding worker injuries at its factory, Tesla doubles down. Hear a sneak preview of our latest investigation.

No links - I am not feeding the click bait reporters

You made me hear the preview. Dana Hull predicted this as she listened to the quarterly call. Who funds reveal? Wouldn't cost much to buy some good press. Let's all chip in and outspend chanos

 

[neroden]

okay, Uh, well AMD didn't really go from 9$ to 34$ "in months", unless you're talking about seven months which is A) more than half a year and B) the recent 9$ was a market based low and C), it really made the move up from 9$. starting over TWO years ago...trust me i'm very familiar since I made the move from 2$ to 22$..lets' do that math.

My comment about VWAG is that it's not going to be a similar situation.

OK, so I don't think so either, but to play devil's advocate,

A) we don't have an existing shareholder/owner with over 35% of the outstanding shares already

Musk has about 20%...

B) whoever the current largest owner is isn't going to communicate to the market that they aren't interested in taking over the company

Is interested in going private

C) then they don't after several months appear to own 75% of the company in shares and cash cleared options thereby taking the overall available public share float of the company down below 5%.

Hasn't happened yet, eh? Every now and then I count the "can never sell" stockholders I can identify. We're not close to 100% of the shares outstanding, but everyone time I count, we seem to get closer.

I'd say that three more "never sell" purchasers of 5% of the shares outstanding would do it. At this point I don't see those three purchasers on the horizon, but I didn't see Tencent *or* the Saudis on the horizon.

YES FIVE percent, thereby creating a scramble by anyone who is at least 1 euro short the shares and HAS to buy in the open market competing with every sovereign wealth fund and major institutional fund in Europe for what is now 90% less available shares in the market.

So no, it's not going to be another VW type short squeeze

 

[neroden]

Thanks but I’ll stay away from the board because my personality is better suited for $twtr

Heh. Some of use have personalities which mean we avoid Twitter as much as possible. Hope to see you around here on occasion.

 

[Toolsmack]

I was hoping for a squeeze as well but I only thought it would happen if the shares available to short became seriously restricted and the borrow rate spiked. My gut says that if the share price spiked $100 on Monday, there would of course be a bunch of shorts forced to cover, but there would be a new population of shorts/swingers ready to lose their money as well by initiating short positions at 450.

I still think it’s possible to have a 2 for 1 covering stretch, where for every two shares covered by shorts, only one new short is opened, slowly pushing the price up, but in my novice opinion a violent squeeze is off the table for now because there are tons of shares available to short.

Not an advice

 

[EVNow]

Place your bets (and consider using spreads) since only the naive believe in risk-free option strategies and/or hoping for Universal Income and Medicare-for-All (aka MedicAid, {or maybe just the Indian Health Service})

There is nothing naïve about thinking that in a democracy, what 70% of people want will get passed. Esp, when it is already been done in every other high & mid income level country.

Is there any other issue that one party totally opposes but has 70% approval ? We may not get Medicare For All in the next 4 years, but it is inevitable. It might even happen before TSLA hits 700 !

70% of Americans now support Medicare-for-all—here's how single-payer could affect you

 

[Carl Raymond]

Storage containers have become sort of a "quick deployment" way to deploy a lot of permanent installations.

And I think that's the idea we're getting at here. You order a Megapack (or two, or three); you pour a flat concrete or asphalt pad, Tesla comes up with a container truck, unloads the container onto the pad, opens up the front end of it and hooks up the power cable. Very fast install.

If it's got sufficient floor strength, concrete four or six piers maybe. Then it doesn't rust out at the base. Less concrete.

 

[SpaceCash]

It's pretty simple

- 25% of the float is short. That's a LOT.
- almost 100% of these shorts are underwater right now
- Tesla IS mostly held tight by institutions and indivuals who do not intend to sell anytime soon, not sure why people are asserting different
- shorts are out of WMDs and the normie public now understands what's been going on
- short squeeze secured

 

[Carl Raymond]

"Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic-like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck. It’s gonna be awesome, it’s gonna be amazing. This will be heart-stopping. It stops my heart. It’s like, oh, it’s great." - So long as it's still durable if you beat it up, this tickles me pink

I'm struggling to reconcile cyberpunk with aerodynamic.

 

[neroden]

There is nothing naïve about thinking that in a democracy, what 70% of people want will get passed. Esp, when it is already been done in every other high & mid income level country.

Is there any other issue that one party totally opposes but has 70% approval ?

Well, since you asked... over 70% of the population opposes gerrymandering, even when their side does it.
Poll Shows Strong Bipartisan Opposition to Partisan Gerrymandering

The Republican Party state legislative leaders fought all the way to the Supreme Court to try to preseve gerrymandering in both Arizona and Pennsylvania this year. Thankfully, the courts smacked them down and the Supreme Court refused to take the cases. But if you aren't lucky enough to live in one of the states which has abolished gerrymandering by referendum or by state court action, it's still happening. The Republican leadership in NY State has been fighting tooth and nail to retain gerrymandering since it's the only reason they control the State Senate.

 

[bdy0627]

My favorite quote from the recode interview is:
“the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.”
Who else here thinks a VW-style short squeeze would be entertaining?

I thought Elon made an interesting point about how the most ironic outcome is often what actually occurs. Made me think about his short burn announcement in June that was coming in 3 weeks, and later the privatization tweet. I wonder if he was actually thinking about that. Shorts made out like bandits over the next 4 months. It was the exact opposite of a short burn as longs got absolutely torched over that span. It was about as ironic as you can imagine. Of course, the short burn has indeed arrived at this point, just when nearly everyone other than the Tesla "fanboys" were certain Tesla was going bankwupt. Instead, it's the shorts going bankrupt. Gotta love the irony.

 

[anthonyj]

Let’s settle this short squeeze debate, right now:

Elon Musk wants shorts to live in cardboard boxes.

Elon always gets what he wants.

Short squeeze secured, $420 secured, yada yada. Now buy some OTM calls*, kick back, relax, and wait for that Teslaquilla. Bet you it will come right when we hit a new ATH.

*this is an advice

 

[Ulmo]

The suggestion that people might move out of Apple into Tesla is actually a really valid point. Apple as a growth stock story pretty much fell over yesterday. It’s still a great cashflow story at a cheap valuation multiple (coupled with an ongoing giant stock buyback) - but it’s stuck in single figure revenue growth territory for the time being.

Apple has a pretty nice foundation, and a bunch of idiots (and random smart people) that don't know what to do with all their great (and pretty) assets and money. They can literally save the planet, make life wonderful for everyone, fun for everyone, easy, exciting, demanding, good and not evil for everyone, and make huge bundles of money doing it, but they're literally doing everything they can to make sure they never do that, because their (current) management absolutely has no idea how to do any of that and will never learn those types of serious mature adult issues ever. Meanwhile, they're sitting pretty.

Apple is currently basically another Sears (which could have simply dumped their existing catalog department online VERBATIM and become the first Amazon overnight, and grown from there), but much earlier in their respective history. BUT, both have unvisionary leadership. The CEO of Apple drives a Toyota. A toy. Seriously? He was a great OPS Veep for back when they made trinkets. Now, he's a trinket op veep trying to play papa.

Tesla does not have that problem. Tesla's CEO wants to and heads a company that is on the way to terraform Mars, as a start. He mentioned habitating the moon as a hub and entertainment area as an afterthought. And those are just headliners; he's much deeper than that. Earth? Replacing our energy sector AND transportation sector. No, not trinkets; our entire energy sector and our entire transportation sector. Two whole industrial sectors. Replacing them. Not trinkets. Apple has a Product List that is about the same size as Tesla's Market Sector List.

My prediction? Apple will find itself. (Trinket ops veeps don't live forever, even as CEO. Hash out a few more replacements, and maybe they'll get a clue. Then, who knows.) I.e., it will learn that people want to own themselves and own their property, and realize many of the technical and engineering opportunties available offered by Physics (or God if you swing that way).

When? I HAVE NO IDEA. I think it is highly likely (as in >25% probability) that I will be deep into retirement age before Apple finds itself. And even IF they do figure that out during my lifetime, it may take decades before they turn THAT into market share of new markets, profitability in whatever profit is measured in by then, etc. I'm certainly not willing to gamble on that, at this present time, given the present facts and conditions. Can that change soon? I have no insight into when it could change; I could come here faster than you can read this message and say they've found themselves, or I could be beyond retirement when they do (if they do (let's hope they do)), or any time in between.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, a quick estimate for 2019 bty cell production at GF1:

• 10 lines @ 2 GWh each: +10 GWh/yr
• 3 lines @ 3 GWh each: +5 GWh/yr
  • 1st installed in the last 3 weeks
  • 2nd installed by end of 2018 Q4
  • 3rd installed by end of 2019 Q1
• 2 more lines @ 3 GWh each: +5 GWh/yr
  • 4th installed by end of 2019 Q2
  • 5th installed by end of 2019 Q3

@Fact Checking Messed up my math, retrying:

Revised estimate for 2019 bty cell production capacity at GF1: 35 GWh/yr

• 10 lines @ 2 GWh each: +20 GWh/yr
• 3 lines @ 3 GWh each: +9 GWh/yr
  • 1st installed during Oct 2018
    
  • 2nd installed by end of 2018 Q4
  • 3rd installed by end of 2019 Q1
• 2 more lines @ 3 GWh each: +6 GWh/yr
  • 4th installed by end of 2019 Q2
  • 5th installed by end of 2019 Q3

That pace would bring us to 35 GWh/yr capacity by Oct 1st, 2019. Personally, I'd prefer if Panasonic just kept adding 1 line per quarter indefinately. Unless it's convenient to add one new line per month.

 

[AZRI11]

Let’s settle this short squeeze debate, right now:

Elon Musk wants shorts to live in cardboard boxes.

Elon always gets what he wants.

Short squeeze secured, $420 secured, yada yada. Now buy some OTM calls*, kick back, relax, and wait for that Teslaquilla. Bet you it will come right when we hit a new ATH.

*this is an advice

Can't wait for the "Reveal" piece on the Teslaquilla distillery.

 

[EVNow]

Well, since you asked... over 70% of the population opposes gerrymandering, even when their side does it.
Poll Shows Strong Bipartisan Opposition to Partisan Gerrymandering

The Republican Party state legislative leaders fought all the way to the Supreme Court to try to preseve gerrymandering in both Arizona and Pennsylvania this year. Thankfully, the courts smacked them down and the Supreme Court refused to take the cases. But if you aren't lucky enough to live in one of the states which has abolished gerrymandering by referendum or by state court action, it's still happening. The Republican leadership in NY State has been fighting tooth and nail to retain gerrymandering since it's the only reason they control the State Senate.

Gerrymandering is a somewhat obscure topic - I'm surprised they got so many people to respond. They must have had a simple explanation.

By issues - I meant things that people generally know, care about and politicians talk about. Afterall Trump is unlikely to write an opinion piece supporting gerrymandering. Whatever they do, it happens away from the public glare.

BTW, at the risk of taking this even further offtopic, there is some debate in political science / pollster circles on to what extent the imbalance between popular vote and number of representatives is caused by gerrymandering vs efficiency (Dems live in densely populated areas, where as Republicans live in sparsely populated areas).

 

[Buckminster]

Thanks but I’ll stay away from the board because my personality is better suited for $twtr
If you want you can always find me on $twtr


007@TrendTrader007

I love your bullishness and agree with your opinions overall and think you’re right
I just find it rather ironic/hilarious that some of these logical and mostly cautious bulls might be turning super bullish in 11 or 12 months from now when $tsla SP is likely to be anywhere from $700 to $1000 or even multiples of current SP, right when I’ll be selling all my calls trying to time a local peak
Have fun!

Hey Dr Bond - I set up a thread that is perfect for you;
Super Bulls Only
We miss you and would gladly have you as our Editor in Chief. This was my opening statement:
Without 007 making any appearances, we need to get our swagger back, now that there are almost zero uncertainties on Tesla achieving greatness.
I'm currently all in on J19/J20 300s - not far off your J21 400s. I'm not comfortable with the J19s but at some point soon your long term projections are going to be "in the money".

 

[Ulmo]

I'm struggling to reconcile cyberpunk with aerodynamic.

They're pretty much the same thing.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I'm struggling to reconcile cyberpunk with aerodynamic.

They're pretty much the same thing.

Start with a mobile rococo obelisk. Ram it thru a score of barricades, just to break it in, then add incremental semi-licit performance mods until it raises Rick Sanchez’s unibrow... Let it survive a handful of aerosol biodiesel anti-insurgent firebursts and if you can still drive it, what’s left (neither knocked off nor burned away) is both cyberpunk and aerodynamic.

Lemme go reread a couple hours of Gibson/Sterling and I’ll draw you one. As long as you’re nicer than Kara and don’t command me to put down the J.

 

[MP3Mike]

@Fact Checking Messed up my math, retrying:

Revised estimate for 2019 bty cell production capacity at GF1: 35 GWh/yr

• 10 lines @ 2 GWh each: +20 GWh/yr
• 3 lines @ 3 GWh each: +9 GWh/yr
  • 1st installed during Oct 2018
    
  • 2nd installed by end of 2018 Q4
  • 3rd installed by end of 2019 Q1
• 2 more lines @ 3 GWh each: +6 GWh/yr
  • 4th installed by end of 2019 Q2
  • 5th installed by end of 2019 Q3

That pace would bring us to 35 GWh/yr capacity by Oct 1st, 2019. Personally, I'd prefer if Panasonic just kept adding 1 line per quarter indefinately. Unless it's convenient to add one new line per month.

The other option is that after they bring up the new ~3GWh lines is that they retrofit each of the old 2GWh lines to 3GWh during the next scheduled maintenance period for each line. (I would think that would cost less, and require less space, than adding more lines.)