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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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A huge part of the money that is going out does kind of vanish ... it is used to cover other commitments and effectively does only reduce interest. Another part goes into cash or bonds ... so called safe places .... in my eyes the only thing that is safe there is that you know how much you loose over time (exception with some bonds).

A third part never really existed if you look at the reduction in market cap an index or stock had versus today.

That last part most people do not understand. Imagine you have a stock that is worth $500. Everybody believes he own the amount of stock he/she has multiplied by $500 but that's a wrong assumption. If enough people that day cash out like we have seen the last days, you realize your average sell price is lower and therefore the market cap you though the stock had was just virtually real on paper but never in hard $ or €.

If you have a real crash in the market and we do not have that today than the majority of the money people believe should be now in cash or gold available just disappears in a magic way.

The fun part is in a bull market everybody believes he is rich but he/she ísn't and in a crash scenario people believe they are bankrupt but the aren't.

Now I likely confused you.... sorry!

I don't follow bonds. That's why I was wondering if there is a metric showing the influx of money there (except the rising bond's price).
There is a lot of selling happening and that obviously results in "cash". What you say is true if the prices fail with low volumes, but that's not the case. Is it?
 
I don't follow bonds. That's why I was wondering if there is a metric showing the influx of money there (except the rising bond's price).
There is a lot of selling happening and that obviously results in "cash". What you say is true if the prices fail with low volumes, but that's not the case. Is it?

What I tried to say is true IMO regardless if volume is high or low. Bonds play a part but not a major one and what I said is that the selling after a run up that we have seen with low interest near zero does in most cases not result in cash.
 
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IMO, we are seeing TSLA entrenching itself to lead the market forward when the dust settles. You are not going to see the FANGs just take off again when bottom is finally in. They need to settle down for a while.

While they are settling down, market will look for new leaders. TSLA will be there, under priced, dominating its market and exploding its revenues. And that is before TE really gets into it as well.

Not an advice of course.
 
(Not an) Advice requested:

I sold half my trading shares a week or two ago at $355, and am now considering selling the other half of trading shares. I have some potential personal liquidity issues that are driving part of that, but I'm VERY conservative on personal liquidity, so it is not by any means urgent but I just like to play it safe. The primary driver is that I think over the very short term between now and Q4 earnings report that the stock might get pulled down by Macro. I'm pretty bearish on a macro level, but not sure how long the weakness persists or whether or not it pulls down TSLA with it.

I call them "trading shares" in that they are not in my retirement account which I don't trade at all. And they were always intended to be shorter term. But until my sale last week (or whenever) I had never sold any TSLA over the 4.5 years I've been buying TSLA. So if sell more I would be literally unloading all my shares that are not in retirement accounts (which are 100% TSLA for reference).

Thoughts?
 
(Not an) Advice requested:

I sold half my trading shares a week or two ago at $355, and am now considering selling the other half of trading shares. I have some potential personal liquidity issues that are driving part of that, but I'm VERY conservative on personal liquidity, so it is not by any means urgent but I just like to play it safe. The primary driver is that I think over the very short term between now and Q4 earnings report that the stock might get pulled down by Macro. I'm pretty bearish on a macro level, but not sure how long the weakness persists or whether or not it pulls down TSLA with it.

I call them "trading shares" in that they are not in my retirement account which I don't trade at all. And they were always intended to be shorter term. But until my sale last week (or whenever) I had never sold any TSLA over the 4.5 years I've been buying TSLA. So if sell more I would be literally unloading all my shares that are not in retirement accounts (which are 100% TSLA for reference).

Thoughts?
Do not sell.
 
I will keep saying this till people stop forecasting recession without considering that energy is the uber-factor.

In the months prior to the GFC the oil price climbed steadily to $150 US per barrel. Blind Freddy could see it coming.

In a cleantech driven boom the pressure on the oil price will be downwards. History is now history.
And yet, the last recession started in December 2007.
 
A huge part of the money that is going out does kind of vanish ... it is used to cover other commitments and effectively does only reduce interest. Another part goes into cash or bonds ... so called safe places .... in my eyes the only thing that is safe there is that you know how much you loose over time (exception with some bonds).

A third part never really existed if you look at the reduction in market cap an index or stock had versus today.

That last part most people do not understand. Imagine you have a stock that is worth $500. Everybody believes he own the amount of stock he/she has multiplied by $500 but that's a wrong assumption. If enough people that day cash out like we have seen the last days, you realize your average sell price is lower and therefore the market cap you though the stock had was just virtually real on paper but never in hard $ or €.

If you have a real crash in the market and we do not have that today than the majority of the money people believe should be now in cash or gold available just disappears in a magic way.

The fun part is in a bull market everybody believes he is rich but he/she ísn't and in a crash scenario people believe they are bankrupt but they aren't.

Now I likely confused you.... sorry!
But it's not just selling going on. For every billion sold, there is a billion bought, that's coming from somewhere.
 
(Not an) Advice requested:

I sold half my trading shares a week or two ago at $355, and am now considering selling the other half of trading shares. I have some potential personal liquidity issues that are driving part of that, but I'm VERY conservative on personal liquidity, so it is not by any means urgent but I just like to play it safe. The primary driver is that I think over the very short term between now and Q4 earnings report that the stock might get pulled down by Macro. I'm pretty bearish on a macro level, but not sure how long the weakness persists or whether or not it pulls down TSLA with it.

I call them "trading shares" in that they are not in my retirement account which I don't trade at all. And they were always intended to be shorter term. But until my sale last week (or whenever) I had never sold any TSLA over the 4.5 years I've been buying TSLA. So if sell more I would be literally unloading all my shares that are not in retirement accounts (which are 100% TSLA for reference).

Thoughts?
Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow - otherwise we'll all be rich and retired.

But one thing to note is that if you are selling after 5 years, you may have a lot of capital gains, on which you have to pay taxes. So, you can't even, for eg. Buy a few more shares than you had on a dip.

One of the reasons I don't touch my long term stock.
 
(Not an) Advice requested:

I sold half my trading shares a week or two ago at $355, and am now considering selling the other half of trading shares. I have some potential personal liquidity issues that are driving part of that, but I'm VERY conservative on personal liquidity, so it is not by any means urgent but I just like to play it safe. The primary driver is that I think over the very short term between now and Q4 earnings report that the stock might get pulled down by Macro. I'm pretty bearish on a macro level, but not sure how long the weakness persists or whether or not it pulls down TSLA with it.

I call them "trading shares" in that they are not in my retirement account which I don't trade at all. And they were always intended to be shorter term. But until my sale last week (or whenever) I had never sold any TSLA over the 4.5 years I've been buying TSLA. So if sell more I would be literally unloading all my shares that are not in retirement accounts (which are 100% TSLA for reference).

Thoughts?

The Macros has been bearish for months now, and the market has reacted negatively since October. Even at the peak of FUD when Tesla wasn’t profitable, institutions were accumulating TSLA shares. It has held strong and about the only stock on the Nasdaq with a massive growth story ahead of it. TSLA also has uniquely positioned itself to expand a very exciting product pipeline, everytime it has dropped to $330s there seems to be massive accumulation to push the stock up to $340s.

Make your call.
 
But it's not just selling going on. For every billion sold, there is a billion bought, that's coming from somewhere.

You miss what is bought for the Billion invested. It is more shares for the same investment. Market cap is shrinking.

For more shares with the same investment there is always money coming from somewhere. If not then you get even more shares until someone makes capital available. Thats what happened with most of tech stocks in the last days and weeks.
 
No. The 3 new machines have 3GWh/yr capacity. They will bring cell production to 29 GWh/yr by the end of 2019H1.

To get to 35 GWh/yr will take 2 more new lines, say end of 2019H2 if Panasonic continues at their current pace.

It doesn't look like Panansonic has the ability to increase the pace. The first new line took over 3 month to install during 2018Q3.
I would expect the first of the new upgraded line to take a few months to get up and running, but I would be surprised if they couldn't at least knock a few weeks off the install-to-useful time frame for the later installations of the same type.

Have we had anything concrete that indicates Panasonic couldn't install these faster, vs were trying to just keep pace with demand and not run ahead of it (to minimize their costs) ? Just because it has taken X months to install and bring online a particular line doesn't mean that's as fast as it can be. It might of course be that where ever they build the machines that make up the line, they can only build and ship them so fast, so it wouldn't matter how quick they can be brought up if that's the bottleneck ...
 
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