TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Thumper]

It seems to me that planes should be, and should have been, using some sort of Linear induction motor/aircraft carrier-esque take off system. Use electricity to get the whole aircraft off the ground at least.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

So my father - Tesla FUD victim and huge huge Model S/X critic - checked out the Model 3 today and well, it's his new dream car now. He'll order a Lemur after a testdrive. Daaaaaamn.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So my father - Tesla FUD victim and huge huge Model S/X critic - checked out the Model 3 today and well, it's his new dream car now. He'll order a Lemur after a testdrive. Daaaaaamn.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Tesla announced how many Model 3 orders they receive after Thanksgiving...

 

[Words of HABIT]

Ordered a LR RWD Model 3 today as those who cancelled are now allowed to re-order and receive the 14k rebate. (can't order anything else)
Now to see if there are any R3's left around. If not, will have to settle for X-Ice I guess.

Apparently for all those Ontarians (Canada) who cancelled their Tesla M3 order when the Ontario $14,000 CAD rebate was abruptly stopped July 11th (other OEMs had until September to order), Court has ruled that full rebate will still apply (only to those who can prove they ordered prior to July 11th, as long as they get their M3 by end of calendar year '18). This should spur Q4 orders for Tesla for Canada as this is quite a big incentive.

Particular thread Here:
Ontario EV Rebates Cancelled July 11, 2018

Edit: felixclupas post was taken from the above thread in TMC. Sorry, can't seem to link to the thread.

 

[HG Wells]

I'm attorney general Whitaker I would like to help you market that time machine

AH the old pay us to patent and market your machine scam.

Now it's the protect and market our president scam.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It seems to me that planes should be, and should have been, using some sort of Linear induction motor/aircraft carrier-esque take off system. Use electricity to get the whole aircraft off the ground at least.

Yup. at least put Tesla drive units in the wheel trucks. That way planes could taxi or hold on the ground w/o wasting jet fuel, plus the take-off roll would be much shorter.

Better yet for aircraft alternatives, launch loops!

 

[mongo]

Ah, so you admit the real pricing is hidden in fine print!

I admit that a full screen capture image, even when viewed on one of largest cell phones, is darn near illegible.

You moved the real pricing to the top, the opposite of how they are really shown, on the bottom of the page

Ok, that is my bad, once I had placed the 3 images (first from mobile, 2nd and 3rd from desktop) on the post, I lacked a keyboard to seperate and annotate them, and was running late for Turkey prep. I figured the takeaway of each instance if a price being coupled to an explanation of the credits, or the non credit version was sufficient support that Tesla was not hiding anything.

Distracted from the real price. The theoretical "savings" are just that, theoretical. Why lead with something which may not be accurate depending on circumstance? If my previous vehicle was a LEAF or electric skateboard or something there are no fuel savings.

Sure, in one spot you need to read the line before the price list that calls out that they are adjusted numbers. Otherwise you will get a surprise either at the bottom of that screen or on the pre-cingurnation page 2 minutes later. Again, not hidden or using tiny text bottom of page asterisks.
While possibly momentarily confusing due to making assumptions about driving habits and comparison cars, it's a far cry (personal opionion) from the standard dealer $249* a month lease ads.

 

[Thekiwi]

Interesting to see the “Tesla dropping prices in China” news getting quite a bit of play on international news networks (BBC, CNN etc). And it is not being reported as negative for Tesla, more along the lines of: “This is the result of tariffs, and Tesla is enabling more Chinese customers to buy a Tesla”.

 

[ggies07]

Welp, I did my part as a new owner today at my wife's family Thanksgiving.....gave 8 members test rides/drives.

Also, gave my next door neighbor a test drive (who is a hard core corvette car guy) and he was blown away and love it. He is retired and said he will probably get this as his next car.

 

[KarenRei]

Come on, we know you're all lying. Seeking Alpha informs me that nobody wants the Model 3 and demand has dried up. And they've never steered us wrong before, now have they?

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah and I read over on Reeking Alpha that a Toyota was cheaper to run than a model 3.

 

[nwdiver]

Yeah and I read over on Reeking Alpha that a Toyota was cheaper to run than a model 3.

It is... you don't live in CA but buy your gas in TX?

 

[SpudLime]

Excuse me professor(s),

Can we take a break? My hand hurts from all the note taking.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Makes sense in a way. China did $400M turnover or some 3500's S/X last quarter. That's worth protecting. Especially because a few key other key markets may be less likely to absorb those cars due to changing regulations (thinking mainly about the US and the Netherlands here). Due to healthy margins the hit on the bottom line won't be too severe and in light of the GF3 deal it's probably best to show that local market a bit of extra special love.

Agreed. In support of your thesis, also important to think about difference between gross margin and marginal cost to produce one more car. Gross margin includes in the cost not only direct costs, but some non-cash items like depreciations. So any additional car that can be produced and sold is contributing to the cash more than just a gross margin; in the case of S and X it maybe as much as 50%, if sold at full price.
So definitely worth it for Tesla to absorb the hit, protect the market, marketshare and mindshare...

An example from Canada, when Canadian dollar lost value against $US quite suddenly, Porsche took years to level out prices by raising them in Canada. Actually, I don't think they ever fully did. Buyers like deals, but even more so stability and predictability of the prices.

 

[Buckminster]

Nothing new here.
Presentation lag across the pond nicely shows the Starlink opportunity.
I liked how the auto is part of the living room.
However, I'm a super bull living in the future and even I don't think the world will look like this in 11 yrs...

 

[Fact Checking]

In support of your thesis, also important to think about difference between gross margin and marginal cost to produce one more car.

Basically like every other manufacturer Tesla has a 'gross margin' and a 'cash margin' - and the latter is usually a bit higher.

But due to the very high expansion rate and costs, interest payments and other fixed overhead such as very high R&D investments Tesla's true cash margin is significantly higher: while their Q3 gross margin was already 'amazing' when compared to competitors in the automotive sector, their cash margin is on yet another level.

In the long run gross margin will approximate cash margin more as they increase volume. I.e. if you want to judge a firm's growth potential it's useful to look at the cash margin.

For the Model 3 their gross margin is around 20%, their cash margin likely around 30%. For the S/X their gross margin is 30%, their cash margin is probably in the 40%+ range.

That gives Tesla a lot of pricing room.

People still don't fully appreciate the fact that Tesla truly is the next Apple, not just in terms of product impact and consumer loyalty but also in terms of cash flow characteristics ... Those periodic stock buyback programs that Apple executes to get rid of their excess cash? I can see that in Tesla's future as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's get some music up in this place! I dunno, maybe oh, some STARSHIP?
Starship - We Built This City

Oh, one last thing before the market opens: Starships were meant to fly!

CH3ERS!

 

[Analyst007]

Seems like the next few weeks won't be that nice... Nasdaq might fall further from 6'500 level to 5'000... might drag TSLA along... Kinda afraid of this scenario.

 

[Steve m]

Seems like the next few weeks won't be that nice... Nasdaq might fall further from 6'500 level to 5'000... might drag TSLA along... Kinda afraid of this scenario.

Down 23% with no explenation... Ah want to see a picture of the tea leaves you are reading.

 

[avoigt]

Good to see that more people start to understand the positive financial impact driving a 3 versus their gas car today. The math will only get better from here having the option for MR and later SR.

Obviously the personal situations are very different and no calculation will look like the other still its really important to look at true and full TCO which most people just don't do or do not know how to do. For me it was a no brainer for other people it may not make financial sense now but maybe it does later.

Finally if you want to be honest to yourself you need to factor in what the carbon emission is doing to climate change and the health of people and yourself financially.

So far that costs are something that the society has been asked to pay for you but it comes back to all of us and you through e.g. taxes or health costs one day. That can't really and easily be calculated but its a larger part than you may believe it is.

I did not put that even in my calculation because I did reach break even after 2-3 years already and that was enough to confirm to me only a fool will not switch .....