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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The point of all this? Don't generalise about countries, it's wrong.

I work in an office with the following nationalities: Belgian, Albanian, Italian, French, Spanish, Argentinian, Greek, German, Lebanese, Iranian, Hungarian, Romanian, Cuban, Polish... maybe I missed one or two. Trust me, you could not predict which ones are the hard workers based on that.
I can. You're the least hard working one there: You're on TMC all day! :)

EDIT: I forgot Twitter, too!
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

You buy stocks based on where you think companies will be in the future, not based on where they’ve been in the past or are currently. Tesla is growing insanely quickly, while BMW is shrinking. Plus, those “high margins” BMW has are still small compared to Tesla’s. BMW made average $5000 per car last year. Even the lowest margin Model 3 makes Tesla roughly double that.

And that’s just for the extreme short term. Going forward, things appear much gloomier for BMW.
 
Well, Trump is not a particularly smart man and he's easily manipulated through his vanity, and intellectual honesty or even basic coherency is not part of the job description of a Republican president - hurting the darn libruls is. ;)

Just yesterday Trump's Twitter account tweeted this:

"We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies, including....
....for electric cars."​

Note that this was not written by Trump actually, but by Daniel Scavino Jr., who is writing most of Trump's tweets interpreted from phone calls by Trump. Here's Scavino, Trump's former golf caddie, working two smartphones:

Dan+Scavino+Jr+President+Trump+Hosts+NCAA+Upb9wMHMKPwl.jpg


He is writing most of Trump's tweets, with rare exceptions such as the "covfefe" tweet which are probably the Real Donald Trump Uncut.

Anyway, the takeaway IMHO is that the target of Trump's Republican handlers are probably not the federal tax incentives (which requires congressional approval from Democrats), but GHG and ZEV tax credits.

I'd love to be proven wrong though.
That's not what I'm talking about.

There is a tendency here to sometime make everything about Tesla. Everything about some kind of conspiracy involving Tesla.

That is simply not how the world works.

GM closing plants is a bodyblow to Trump who claimed specifically during the election that he will prevent something like this from happening.

Now that it has happened, Trump needs to figure out how to deal with it. People affected by the closures in the critical States of MI and OH will not care about Tesla or EV credits etc.

Trump doesn't care about Koch's etc. He will do what he thinks is important for his own reelection. His pivot is usually to social issues as a diversion (Caravan !) - EVs and Tesla are not a viable diversion. Infact they will bring the conversation right back to GM and plant closures.
 
All the talk upstream about unions got me thinking. At one time a union was a necessary reaction to cruel and unfair labor practices.
Then the pendulum of power swung to far in the union's favor and abuses followed. We are now in a phase were the power is swinging back too far in the company's/management favor in some cases.

In Tesla's case it seem pretty clear that the ones on the outside (Union's) are using pretty crappy tactic's to get in.
In other cases work places without a union would be terrible for the worker's.

I think at some point in the future Tesla worker's may have to have a union of some sort. It is always a balance hard to keep perfectly balanced and when it falls too far it can be bad.

OK market action. I liked the strong close!
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

Tell them to put money in GM, Nokia and blackberry.
 
Audi e-tron revealed, a non-worry for Tesla. It has good styling for those looking for aggressive lines and grilles, good acceleration 0-60 3.5, and respectable range (248.5 miles). Only posting this comment here because this is yet another "Tesla Killer" revealed and crossed off the list. Sorry but this car isn't going to affect Tesla sales, therefore it should not affect stock prices either.

Next?
 
All the talk upstream about unions got me thinking. At one time a union was a necessary reaction to cruel and unfair labor practices.
Then the pendulum of power swung to far in the union's favor and abuses followed. We are now in a phase were the power is swinging back too far in the company's/management favor in some cases.

In Tesla's case it seem pretty clear that the ones on the outside (Union's) are using pretty crappy tactic's to get in.
In other cases work places without a union would be terrible for the worker's.

I think at some point in the future Tesla worker's may have to have a union of some sort. It is always a balance hard to keep perfectly balanced and when it falls too far it can be bad.

OK market action. I liked the strong close!

On Tesla, in particular, I think a union could work. Just probably not the UAW in particular. That said, I don’t see it happening right now unless the UAW somehow manages to use the courts to force unionization(is that even legal without a vote from the workers?). I’m not even sure what a union would do at Tesla. They already have competitive wages, excellent benefits and a good(and improving) safety record.
 
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Are you / the other moderators going to actually start vacationing people? I've been seeing warnings posted for months in this thread, but the thread continues to get noisier and less valuable. It's now a chore to scroll through pages of off topic posts every time I refresh this thread in order to find a valuable on-topic post.
Ha! You're new here, it is much better than it was a year or so ago...
 
All the talk upstream about unions got me thinking. At one time a union was a necessary reaction to cruel and unfair labor practices.
Then the pendulum of power swung to far in the union's favor and abuses followed. We are now in a phase were the power is swinging back too far in the company's/management favor in some cases.

In Tesla's case it seem pretty clear that the ones on the outside (Union's) are using pretty crappy tactic's to get in.
In other cases work places without a union would be terrible for the worker's.

I think at some point in the future Tesla worker's may have to have a union of some sort. It is always a balance hard to keep perfectly balanced and when it falls too far it can be bad.

OK market action. I liked the strong close!

Again, unions don't get voted in by employees, they are invited in by incompetent rent seeking management.

Fire Away!
 
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Btw, will be interesting how the child labor cobalt discussion plays out in Germany.
It is China, after all, that buys it in the DRC's markets etc. w/o asking where it came from.
For ex., CBS News finds children mining cobalt for batteries in the Congo

Since you are asking:

The cobalt discussion was used here in Germany to discredit Tesla as a "dirty and child labor" build vehicle. And that FUD still goes around and does not die. Working on that every other day ...

Ironically Tesla is using way less cobalt than e.g. VW or BMW with the ambition to get fully rid of it and they try their best to make sure the cobalt is not from Congo and if it is the mining conditions are according to international supplier standards. In fact Tesla can not rule it out by 100% because the supplier from a supplier from a friend is a network of supply that is hard to control. However Tesla does some efforts and is the only company with their vertical integration that is taking responsibility for the entire supply chain.

VW and BMW do the opposite of vertical integration. They put the responsibility for clean and child labor free cobalt to their Chinese battery cell suppliers and will blame them if its from some warlords in Congo who don't care about human rights. They are used to ask for a certificate that is king of cheap to get and worthless and feel they are all set. We all know how transparent Chinese companies are and that will likely not change soon. We also know how China is doing business in Africa so I do not trust that supply chain at all.

To summarize I expect the worst cobalt to be used in EVs from incumbent ICE manufacturers who are under heavy cost and demand pressure these days. You can fill in the names...
 
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Again, unions don't get voted in by employees, they are invited in by incompetent rent seeking management.

Fire Away!
Well ....sometimes...I am sure the kids working at the Cobalt mines could use some representation.
Of course that is an extreme example but is relevant to expose what happens when the balance of power is so far out of balance.

Some unions do get voted in by workers. Some unions protect lazy slob's.

I try not to paint with too broad a brush.
 
Audi e-tron revealed, a non-worry for Tesla. It has good styling for those looking for aggressive lines and grilles, good acceleration 0-60 3.5, and respectable range (248.5 miles). Only posting this comment here because this is yet another "Tesla Killer" revealed and crossed off the list. Sorry but this car isn't going to affect Tesla sales, therefore it should not affect stock prices either.

Next?

its a 2020/21 car so probably the Model S at that time should be much better, but the E-Tron has great styling, a better interior and faster charging than the current S. It's the first non-Tesla electric car I could actually own one day.

If anything it stresses what Elon says that Tesla has to keep innovating to keep its moat. I'm interested to see how this charging speed stuff plays out.
 
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