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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Summary of the WSJ Article:

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...
  • We are living through the S-curve of EV adoption
  • During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.
  • The steady improvement in lithium-ion batteries’ energy and power-density over cost will render the latest plug-in hybrids comically superfluous in a matter of years.
  • The twilight of the IC engine is pretty awful, actually. All the technical gymnastics to reduce consumption and emissions from IC engines—stop-start, cylinder deactivation, CVT transmissions, high-strung turbos hooked up to small displacement motors—it all feels junky and compromising
  • Last year the chief financial officer for Continental, the Tier 1 global automotive supplier, lit up the chat rooms with his prediction that IC development at the German carmakers will effectively end by 2023
Do these people over exaggerate everything? A sort of " thinking man's (persons/gender fluid) click-bait " for the superior/ overeducated ?
 
The only way to make money in this market is shorting.
Or swing trading. Or writing calls.

But those are risky too.

Two months back (10/23) SP went up 12% in a day (after EA date was announced). Could happen anytime.
This is what I was saying. Now up $27, more than 9%.
 
Weird to see all these longs on this board losing faith about Q4 deliveries in the last few days.
But seems no one had brought up this:
Elon liked this tweet from a random science account a few days back:
World and Science on Twitter
The Earth is traveling around the sun at 67,000 miles per hour or about 18.6 miles per second!

Sure at that moment there’s a stream of SpaceX tweets, but I still can’t see the context of liking this tweet, except the number in it.

Tinfoil-hat time:

This number 67k looks much like Q4 M3 deliveries to me, because:
  • It would be a bit too optimistic to say it is the production number.
  • Elon has history of rounding up target to interesting numbers.(420 anyone?)
  • With Q4 production not lower than Q3, and 8k in transit + ~2.5k uncleared Q3 checks, then literally no in-transit at end of Q4, this number is actually not far fetched.
  • Tesla seems to have been staging the same End of Q3 west coast push for the whole country in Q4. I’m expecting for a walk-in immediate delivery event all over the place this weekend, given you have cashiers checks that can be cleared next Monday. Actually it might have been announced by tweets already if I understood it right.
 
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