TSLA Technical Analysis

[Featsbeyond50]

This is a nice little break to the upside. Hopefully it creates enough FOMO to get us clear of 800. Once past 800 we have very little overhead resistance and we'll have the perfect setup for some fundamentals like FSD or 25k Tesla to step in. Yes, I get lost in fantasy sometimes.

 

[bxr140]

Looks like we pushed through the price-volume zone between ~660-680 and reversed on the longer timeframe downtrend that makes up the top side of the longer timeframe descending triangle. On the downside I'm looking for ~660-665 as price support--will be unloading positions if we fall below that.

Its likely we'll dance around the TL for a little bit, but on the upside I'm looking at a little price volume resistance between 705-710 (see the 5M vol screenshot below), and then the next price-volume resistance in the ~735-740 range.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA surged upward again on Thursday, increasing the distance from its 50-day SMA. The May 19 bottom looks more permanent. Recent weeks of meandering around the 200-day SMA appear to have ended dramatically amid rising volume. Those who had been reluctant to buy in recent months, may be having second thoughts.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 06/26/2021. The trend reversal to the upside is underway as Tesla had a strong rally on two consecutive days this week. Tesla pushed through several resistance levels and ran into a key resistance level at $700. It has been consolidating between $550 and $700 for the past 4 months and a breakout of consolidation would be very bullish. Not only that, but it will break BACK into the long term uptrend channel going back to August of last year! The picture is definitely favoring bulls at the moment as this bullish trend reversal could continue, pushing Tesla back to all time highs.

Tesla news this week includes:

• Cars.com’s American-Made Index places Tesla Model 3 atop list
• NYC votes to block new licenses for electric taxis
• Rumor: Tesla Model 3 and Model Y almost sold out for Q3 2021 in the US

 

[Curt Renz]

On June 23, TSLA popped above its 50-day SMA (simple) moving average. This after spending a few weeks hugging lower at its 200-day SMA. There was further gain on June 24 amid increasing trading volume. Since then, TSLA has zig-zagged within a narrow range amid slowing volume. Today the zag was down, likely due to an analyst’s price target reduction.

Meanwhile, many traders may be sitting tight until Q2 delivery numbers are released, which likely will occur late on Friday. If that news is good, there might be another significant pop upward. It may presage a forming first wave of a significant five-wave Elliott impulse series to the upside.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 07/03/2021. Not even a record setting Q2 Delivery could move Tesla stock higher. It traded flat all week failing to break above key resistance at $700. Going forward, it will need to break resistance at $700. If it can break that level, the next resistance level to watch for is $715. A break above that would be extremely bullish. To the downside, we have strong support at the $620-630 level.

Tesla news this week includes:

• Tesla signs new battery agreement with CATL
• IIHS rates 2021 Tesla Model 3 superior, Musk STILL says room for improvement
• Q2 2021 Delivery Results
• Gene Munster: Tesla entering growth segment of its S-Curve

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA’s 50 & 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages) are crossing today at $630. Technically, it may be crucial which way the stock moves from the crossing point into the session’s close. That point was penetrated at the opening, but since then the share price has moved nicely above. Remaining above, especially a positive close, could be encouraging technical signs.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 07/10/2021. Tesla held key support level and will have to find a way to breakout above $700. A break above that level would be very bullish, however, my conviction to the bull side would increase dramatically if Tesla could break above resistance at $720. To the downside, we have support of the top of the wedge and 200DMA at around $630

Tesla news this week includes:

• Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer adds another BUY rating on Tesla
• Berlin Economy Minister expects Tesla to begin production this year despite delays
• Tesla Model 3 is best selling car in the UK for June
• Tesla adding rear wheel steering feature to Cybertruck
• FSD Beta 9 Release end of week
• Someone purchased Tesla ads that appeared in NYC’s Times Square

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 07/17/2021. Tesla experiences another pullback, retesting and holding support at the 200DMA yet again, after failing to break back into the long term uptrend channel. In my opinion we will see it retest the top of the wedge that its been trading within at around $680. If it breaks above that, we will see it retest resistance of the top of the consolidation zone at $700. Finally, a breakout of consolidation above $700 would lead it into the next resistance at around $737

Tesla news this week includes:

• China media reports high demand for Model Y Standard Range
• Goldman Sachs raises Tesla’s 2021 EPS estimate
• Tesla wins First, Second, and Third in Car & Driver’s ‘EV 1000’ Race

 

[MABMAB]

I hope some folks took the time to read some of the turtle trading books to get a grasp of volatility based stops. These allow a trader to enter a trade without getting shaken out so easily while still catching some big moves. Big moves are what I am after. Rather than have a set dollar amount ($20 drop in share price) a volatility based entry allows one to sit through recent price changes without getting shaken out. At risk is a given percentage of ones portfolio, I suggest a SMALL percentage. Anyone with a $20 stop can be taken out overnight these days..

Looking at big picture charts, weekly looking better. It has its own triangle forming. No lines, if you cant visualize it dont play it.

On daily, it looks to me like a false long term breakout occurred on 6/23. Time will tell better, but this happened just 2 days after I said I thought chart monkeys could be chasing an early entry. Eighty dollar recent spread in prices would have me worried to enter a trade right now.

My guess is that the recent lows are in at this point. No more 550s, hopefully forever. No feel for what will happen next few weeks. Again, my guess is that we are not done going back and forth a bit, week hands, including time worn professionals might get out (they will be time and price worn back near new highs and will dump then also). Seasonality might be playing a factor, with better price action and technical predictability as the fall settles in.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I see a setup for a pretty awesome pattern to repeat. We had a wedge form from July 2020 thru mid August. That wedge busted out from about 300 and shot up to 500. After that breakout, another wedge formed from September to mid November. The breakout from that wedge took us from about 400 to 900. Now for the last 6 months another, even larger wedge has formed. Will our luck continue and give us another massive breakout from this one? No one can know, and a lot depends on what goes on with the markets over the next couple of months, but my gut tells me it will.

The PE ratio before last earnings was 1000. After earnings it dropped to 650, after next weeks earnings it will drop to 200. It'll drop further next quarter. I don't think TSLA is going to trade with a PE much less than 200 anytime soon so I believe we are going to have a repeat breakout. I'm hoping for 1500 but I'll grudgingly take 1200.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today’s market close:

--2.09% DJIA
--1.06% Nasdaq Composite
--1.59% S&P 500

--2.42% F
--2.31% GM

+0.31% TSLA

The significant selling in recent days of automakers continued today. TSLA has been considerably less affected.

During the session TSLA fell below both its 50 & 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Yet it closed above both and with a gain.

This can be seen as technically encouraging, although stabilization in the macros would be helpful.

 

[PKEllefsen]

 

[PKEllefsen]

View attachment 686520

To add to this. This chart is extremely interesting. One of two longer very definite trends in opposite directions will have to break. If it breaks to the upside we can finally start to see a potential ramp towards the all time highs. If the breaks downwards it will be very bearish for upcoming months in technical terms. Earnings on Monday will decide tesla's short term fate.

 

[MABMAB]

Some folks here have poo pood me or things I shared here. Statements I have made here have been eliminated by mods out of sensitivity to frequent posters. The following video might help better explain the market than I do. This guy comes from a school of thought that significantly shaped my thinking and trading.

Some specific things mentioned that struck me:
Several comments about whales...
@22;30 he makes comments on wide and loose patterns
Technicals corroborate the fundamentals
Options are a losers game
@36:20 ish on TSLA THIS IS THE LEADER!
Gotta love walls of Blue
@55 min talks about this being the dog days of summer ie seasonality- folks on vacation
Stocks go up on new info
Churning kills- I bet some well written posters here could fall prey to this finding too many entry points
Catch a monster!
This rough period is just a shred of time.
Great big bull bullishness of capitalism and results investors can get over time.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 07/24/2021. After a false breakdown on Friday, Tesla continues to trade within a wedge going into earnings this coming Monday. I anticipate a breakout of the wedge once record numbers are reported for yet another consecutive quarter. In my opinion, Tesla’s current price does not reflect just how well the business has been performing and the price is bound to accelerate to the upside as we have seen the previous parabolic run it had had. Of course, Tesla could remain irrational and selloff on great earnings numbers, but I assign a low probability of this occurring.

Tesla news this week includes:

• Giga Texas way ahead of Giga Berlin
• Giga Berlin will start production in December
• Tesla in talks with Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, and Opel about sharing Superchargers in Europe
• Tesla Semi electric truck to begin production soon
• Tesla continues to dominate EV sales in China for 1H 2021
• Model Y SR RWD sold out for Q3
• FSD will have powerful impact on Tesla profits
• Goldman Sachs: Opening Tesla Supercharger network could net $25 billion annually in additional revenue

 

[bxr140]

Good news, its been a great ~month for technical trading with some really solid entry and exit signals, and especially for those trading options.

Bad news, I've been holed up with a newborn and haven't been able to fully capitalize.

First we had a great move out of the 615-625 consolidation on 6/23 after we confirmed the shorter term uptrend and also got support from 200MA, with underlying running up into the high 600's price target very quickly and hitting the longer term downtrend. There was also an inversion of the IV fan (where IV30 is at the bottom) at that time, which is a good indicator that IV will likely go up, and that of course is what you want when buying options. I entered with a bunch of ITM horizontals (Sept/Oct longs and weekly shorts) around $620 and in I think 3 trading days my average position profit was like 120%. (I didn't have time to manage my positions, unfortunately, and my profit dropped back down below 100%).

But exit blunder aside, total win on that one.

That price started consolidating (Around the longer term downtrend) and formed a nice triangle that broke to the upside on 7/2, which would have caught me out if I was trading (for a ~$15 loss on underlying) and then broke to the downside making a nice short (I don't short TSLA, but the TA signal was there all the same).

By 7/8 that retraced back to the price volume at the end of that consolidation zone. It broke down through the uptrend which is a bad deal, but quickly moved up back above the trend line and 50MA and 200MA, which were good entry indicators. 630/640 would have been a very sensible entry point (when I was elbow deep in diapers), with a similar, if not more conservative price target as the first rally...maybe 675 or so. But still, even conservative entries and exits for someone paying attention would have netted ~$40 on underlying, which is awesome.

AND THEN, on 7/19 price retraced again back down to that 615-625 zone, quickly finding support from that double bottom and also from 50MA. Since this was the second retrace position size would certainly be smaller and price target would be lower (655, by my math), but even a conservative position would have netted $20 on underlying. That's a solid payout for someone who knows how to properly trade options.

Short term looking forward there's no strong technical indicators, and earnings next week means TA, at least in a vacuum, is pretty foolish. For those looking to enter, do so on fundamentals or other news.


TSLA IV fan:
View attachment 687464

My chart--sorry I don't have the time to break it out play by play.

 

[buttershrimp]

Some folks here have poo pood me or things I shared here. Statements I have made here have been eliminated by mods out of sensitivity to frequent posters. The following video might help better explain the market than I do. This guy comes from a school of thought that significantly shaped my thinking and trading.

Some specific things mentioned that struck me:
Several comments about whales...
@22;30 he makes comments on wide and loose patterns
Technicals corroborate the fundamentals
Options are a losers game
@36:20 ish on TSLA THIS IS THE LEADER!
Gotta love walls of Blue
@55 min talks about this being the dog days of summer ie seasonality- folks on vacation
Stocks go up on new info
Churning kills- I bet some well written posters here could fall prey to this finding too many entry points
Catch a monster!
This rough period is just a shred of time.
Great big bull bullishness of capitalism and results investors can get over time.

So some questions as a beginner here:
part 1 of video

- 3,5,7 rule sounds like a way to tier stop losses? 3%,5%,7%?
- 4 position minimum (maximum 8) for a small account of $100,000 , I assume this means roughly 25% of portfolio on 4 different stocks?
- drink from giant water bottles while on YouTube
- he mentioned a way of hedging by selling DITM calls… which seems interesting to me…. So if you think the stock is going down for a few weeks, selling DITM calls basically gets you paid if stock goes down. Not sure if folks that do that do so on a portion of their positions… but this sounds like a conscious decision to let go of a portion of their stocks.
- follow the action around the 50 day moving average = guardrail with some subjectivity, if you aren’t getting support on it, at it, or within 3-5% of it … it’s trouble time (context matters so volume comes into play and if it’s piercing 50 day violently versus playing around near it)…. One question I have is I am going to follow the action around the 50 day moving average, what time frame of the chart is he talking about? I notice the moving averages are so different based on whether I’m looking at a 1 min chart or a 5 min chart…. I get the feeling he’s looking at daily chart or something
- “upside reversals” are major signals of support, I’m not sure why he is said he is watching for gap down on earnings and then upside reversal (is he talking about earnings release of stock?) and then high volumes and long candles to downside and someone saying, “we aren’t letting our investment go lower” and then buys in… he’s using the daily candles to do this and looking for volume above average (pretty cool)… I’m not going to skip over looking at the daily candles any longer… so is the daily chart interval the chart of choice when he is talking about 50 day moving average?

 

[bxr140]

- 3,5,7 rule sounds like a way to tier stop losses? 3%,5%,7%?

Generally speaking, just using % is not an ideal way to identify stop losses. Its much better to use some price analysis (in context of this thread, technical analysis, though folding in more fundamental and macro analysis is never a bad thing) to identify the price targets.

At least IMO, laddering (multiple stops/entries/exits) is a sign of uncertainty that leans on FOMO and HRH (hope real hard) more than, say, just reducing your position size (and thus reducing your downside risk). At the end of the day, If your analysis is wrong, its wrong, and its best to stop out when its wrong. If price reverses, your initial analysis was still wrong, so stopping out is still the right play. Back to the books then to understand if anything needs to be modified in your analysis, or whether the loss was just a statistical inevitability.

If you're going to ladder, at least combine it with technical analysis. Whatever method you decide to cap your risk (conservatively, 2% of your portfolio per position is a good place to start) you can build the ladder with ~equivalent loss.

- 4 position minimum (maximum 8) for a small account of $100,000 , I assume this means roughly 25% of portfolio on 4 different stocks?

It is never a good idea to quantify "rules" of one's technical analysis strategy in this manner. Technical analysis is all about finding the right entries and exits. Forcing a position on a bad entry and/or skipping a good entry just because its outside the rails will lead to sub-optimal trading returns. Besides, Its always good to have free capital in a trading account.

An investing account is a bit different, but that's not what we're talking about here.

- he mentioned a way of hedging by selling DITM calls… which seems interesting to me…. So if you think the stock is going down for a few weeks, selling DITM calls basically gets you paid if stock goes down. Not sure if folks that do that do so on a portion of their positions… but this sounds like a conscious decision to let go of a portion of their stocks.

Its not a great way to allocate capital IMO. The DITM will require quite a bit of scrilla to cover the margin requirement, and the high ∆ of the DITM (say, .9 or even higher) will move pretty close to equivalent shares (1.0) in both directions, so upside movement will majorly offset profit from the anchor leg of the position. Also the DITM will have pretty minimal extrinsic value, so it won't realize much CV movement from volatility...Volatility, of course, being a major reason one is trading options in the first place...

Better just to enter with a smaller position that has ~equivalent downside exposure/potential, which will inevitably result in ~similar upside to the big+hedged position. Then you can hold on to or otherwise allocate the 'freed up' capital.

- follow the action around the 50 day moving average = guardrail with some subjectivity

Any indicator needs to be analyzed in a bigger picture. 50MA is a good one but it doesn't stand alone (no indicators stand alone), so the "subjectivity" is really "relative to other indicators". My brand of analysis uses just a couple indicators (primarily price-volume accumulation and distribution zones, trendlines, traditional support/resistance, and 50/200MA, but secondarily things like strength of preceding moves, volume trends, candle formations, pro gaps, and sometimes floor trader pivots) and looks for convergence of a couple of those indicators to inform my entry/exit/stop.

- “upside reversals” are major signals of support

Big upside reversals are usually A Good Thing; as with everything, best to overlap with other indicators to improve their statistical probability, like a reversal on a MA or trendline, big volume, etc.

is the daily chart interval the chart of choice when he is talking about 50 day moving average?

Daily is the only timeframe where the traditional 50/200MA make any sense. (Other common daily MA lengths are 20, 10, and 5). For most other timeframes shorter lengths are usually more useful. For instance, a 50MA on a monthly TSLA chart is worthless...maybe a 52MA on weekly might be useful but probably less so with TSLA, etc. In the other direction, shorter timeframes (60, 5...for a while I was big on 130) don't really respond as well to long length MAs because inevitably the MA is pulling from previous days and the overnight gaps kind of muck it all up. Maybe if you're trading on a 1 or 2 min timeframe with a 50 or 100MA it works, but if that's where you are with trading you're way beyond whatever us hacks on TMC are doing.

Anyway, identifying the right timeframe and MA length its really just iterating into something that works for what you're trying to do. That doesn't mean they're not as useful as 50/200 on daily, it just means they're not as self-fulfilling as 50/200 on daily. Like, if you're day trading on a 5 min candle, you might want to highlight MA crossovers with optimized lengths as potential entry points. Maybe the crossover of an 8 candle SMA and a 19 candle volume weighted MA is the bee's...or something... I've had genetic optimizers spit out some wacky things...

 

[buttershrimp]

Its not a great way to allocate capital IMO. The DITM will require quite a bit of scrilla to cover the margin requirement, and the high ∆ of the DITM (say, .9 or even higher) will move pretty close to equivalent shares (1.0) in both directions, so upside movement will majorly offset profit from the anchor leg of the position. Also the DITM will have pretty minimal extrinsic value, so it won't realize much CV movement from volatility...Volatility, of course, being a major reason one is trading options in the first place...

Better just to enter with a smaller position that has ~equivalent downside exposure/potential, which will inevitably result in ~similar upside to the big+hedged position. Then you can hold on to or otherwise allocate the 'freed up' capital.

Very helpful! Thank you!

So, one quick question... I got the impression from the video interview that the guy is advocating the purchase of the DITM as a way to hedge a percentage of his position as the profits grow.... and not a way to hedge his other option trades. He seems to be anti-options in the video. So I think he was saying, I'm making good profit on this trade... I'll hedge this by buying DITM short duration call on a percentage of my position so I don't have to exit trade.

Did I describe that correctly?