-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
Yes, I went back and I think it's at 33 min.... I think it's during the options are a loser's game part.... it sounds like he's selling DITM calls, not buying. Was going to say, didn't make sense. He was talking about picking strike 5% below 50 day and selling that.... I don't really understand the reasoning... Basically if the price reverses that's good, but he's still talking about parting with positon.
Just banged this out in a DM for a buddy, figured folks here might be interested in my brand of TA. TLDR, below are the analysis tools and logic I use when reading charts, in order of priority/importance.
1. My primary indicator is price volume accumulation/distribution. The whole idea here is to follow the institutional trading. I start with this on a daily timeframe, looking for small candles with small wicks, where price has really consolidated. That's generally a sign of a lot of transactions in a small price window, which is generally a sign of institutional buying/selling. The top and bottom of these candles define the price “zone” I'm interested in. I’ll also confirm that price zone a volume chart (where the candles are fixed volumes as opposed to fixed time durations), usually something like 5M or 10M shares (TSLA average daily volume is 23M right now). That gives higher fidelity as to where the big buys are being made.
The logic behind this one is that a) if price makes a strong break out of these consolidated zones, its a good idea to enter and b) if price retraces into one of these zones, its a good idea to enter if price rallies back out of the zone. Its important to know that with this and pretty much all of my indicators, you're not really trying to guess when price is going to move (though sometimes I'll hedge and enter in anticipation of the move), you just make sure you're ready to enter when price does start moving. You're never going to catch the whole rally all the time, but very much from a "you don't need to outrun the bear" approach, if you can catch most of the rally you're Doing It Right.
2. Trendlines and basic formations like triangles and channels, flags and pennants. This one's pretty straightforward, though there's some 'curve fitting' that goes on when you're drawing lines. In short, you start by linking the the peaks (or bottoms) of wicks together to form a trendline, which is literally just support/resistance at an angle. Sometimes you curve fit through a wick, but never through a candle body. Base logic is you need three touch points to define a trendline, then what you're looking for is a [strong] break to the other side of the trendline for an entry/exit signal. Fold in classic triangle logic (ascending, symmetrical, etc) for enhanced probability fidelity. Important caveat for me on this one, I've found a logarithmic price axis to be more useful on TSLA. Especially with the mad price action we've had, log vs linear makes a huge difference.
3. Classic support/resistance. This is kind of a follow on to #1, where it really just uses the peak or bottom of recent price action to identify a probable price at which price will retrace (and, hopefully reverse) in the future. Conversely pushing through, and especially closing on the "wrong" side (as is the case with all of my indicators) spoils the opportunity.
4. 50/200 SMA on the daily timeframe..and sometimes 20MA too. These are classics and can often end up being self-fulfilling. The logic/use of them is similar to above where they simply act support/resistance...just along a squiggly line instead of a straight/angled line.
5. Rally strength. This is useful when identifying re-trace entry points, like #1 when price comes back into an accumulation zone. If the initial move out of the zone was strong, you're more likely to get a bigger move after the retrace. If the initial move was more of a lolly-gag out, the indicator as a whole is not super strong.
6. Candles. These are definitely more supporting than primary, but basic ones like stars and hammers/hanging man can be self fulfilling, and I've found that big red/green candle pairs (basically, engulfing or piercing) are often a reversal indicator.
7. Pro vs novice gaps. Classic tool, also used (by me) as a secondary indicator.
1. My primary indicator is price volume accumulation/distribution. The whole idea here is to follow the institutional trading. I start with this on a daily timeframe, looking for small candles with small wicks, where price has really consolidated. That's generally a sign of a lot of transactions in a small price window, which is generally a sign of institutional buying/selling. The top and bottom of these candles define the price “zone” I'm interested in. I’ll also confirm that price zone a volume chart (where the candles are fixed volumes as opposed to fixed time durations), usually something like 5M or 10M shares (TSLA average daily volume is 23M right now). That gives higher fidelity as to where the big buys are being made.
The logic behind this one is that a) if price makes a strong break out of these consolidated zones, its a good idea to enter and b) if price retraces into one of these zones, its a good idea to enter if price rallies back out of the zone. Its important to know that with this and pretty much all of my indicators, you're not really trying to guess when price is going to move (though sometimes I'll hedge and enter in anticipation of the move), you just make sure you're ready to enter when price does start moving. You're never going to catch the whole rally all the time, but very much from a "you don't need to outrun the bear" approach, if you can catch most of the rally you're Doing It Right.
2. Trendlines and basic formations like triangles and channels, flags and pennants. This one's pretty straightforward, though there's some 'curve fitting' that goes on when you're drawing lines. In short, you start by linking the the peaks (or bottoms) of wicks together to form a trendline, which is literally just support/resistance at an angle. Sometimes you curve fit through a wick, but never through a candle body. Base logic is you need three touch points to define a trendline, then what you're looking for is a [strong] break to the other side of the trendline for an entry/exit signal. Fold in classic triangle logic (ascending, symmetrical, etc) for enhanced probability fidelity. Important caveat for me on this one, I've found a logarithmic price axis to be more useful on TSLA. Especially with the mad price action we've had, log vs linear makes a huge difference.
3. Classic support/resistance. This is kind of a follow on to #1, where it really just uses the peak or bottom of recent price action to identify a probable price at which price will retrace (and, hopefully reverse) in the future. Conversely pushing through, and especially closing on the "wrong" side (as is the case with all of my indicators) spoils the opportunity.
4. 50/200 SMA on the daily timeframe..and sometimes 20MA too. These are classics and can often end up being self-fulfilling. The logic/use of them is similar to above where they simply act support/resistance...just along a squiggly line instead of a straight/angled line.
5. Rally strength. This is useful when identifying re-trace entry points, like #1 when price comes back into an accumulation zone. If the initial move out of the zone was strong, you're more likely to get a bigger move after the retrace. If the initial move was more of a lolly-gag out, the indicator as a whole is not super strong.
6. Candles. These are definitely more supporting than primary, but basic ones like stars and hammers/hanging man can be self fulfilling, and I've found that big red/green candle pairs (basically, engulfing or piercing) are often a reversal indicator.
7. Pro vs novice gaps. Classic tool, also used (by me) as a secondary indicator.
Yes, dude is selling. And its an unfortunate delivery of the statement ("options are a losers game") because there's a ton of context around that statement that isn't provided, and there's a whole wide world of options trading where that statement simply doesn't apply. Dude is actually pro options, but it can come across to a noob that options are a bad deal.
Top be crystal, options are great, if you know how to trade them. Especially buying options. BTDT.
Options will totally nuke your account if you don't know what you're doing, both buying and selling. BTDT.
Didn't watch the whole thing; if dude has found that 5% under 50MA over ~two weeks returns profit on a sold put, great. IMHO, if that's the extent of the strategy, its too simple ultimately will fall prey to the very casino odds dude cites.
Sure. I didn't suggest otherwise. The point is that if one doesn't have a good understanding of how options work--which is something that requires quite a bit of time--one can easily misinterpret "options are a losers game" as "options are bad, don't trade them" (or <ahem> any derivative of that statement).
Yes I also took his statement to be mostly pro options. And found his discussion of how to handle a very good return by selling DITM calls to be fairly clever. I hope to be in that position one day where I enter at the right time and am thinking, “holy crap this is too good to be true, time to sell DITM calls on 25% of the position”. In the past when I had a winning call I rolled for time, I simply bought puts to hedge the gains and quickly found they didn’t protect me as much as I hoped. As they didn’t seem to gain like I wanted. Perhaps this was due to my strike selection but buying a short duration option to hedge another short duration option is probably unwise. Rolling for time was a fascinating way to stay in contact with the underlying movement, but my inability to take profits due to FOMO was perhaps even more problematic.
I guess what I’m saying is that my heart was in the right place… “hedge these gains! I guess by a put?” Buying an option seemed an easier emotional task than taking profit and removing capital from the trade. How to handle winning positions is a learned skill as well it seems.
If he means what he says, but still uses them, he’s a reluctant hedge fund guy that employs them to hedge when he’d rather be loading up on shares and riding them higher? I got the impression that finding the next Moderna or Tesla circa 2020 is sort of his preferred method of money making… he has his darlings sort of like Gary black.
Also just to clarify… did anyone else take what he is hedging his gaining holding by looking at the 50 day MVA and selling Ditm call 5% below that on portion of position?
I realize this is getting away from the thread topic, but hedging is a complex thing. In virtually all cases you're necessarily reducing upside in order to protect downside, so for us retail hacks, at least for short term trades (as opposed to B&H/investment duration positions), often just taking profit and reducing position size will have an ~equivalent outcome to the hedge. If you're hedging a short term trade you really need to understand what you're hedging for, and that usually ends up back with The Greeks.
Technical analysis, price predictions and news on Tesla stock for week ending 07/31/2021. Tesla finally breaks out of wedge and retests the top of consolidation range at $700. The momentum has definitely shifted to the bull side, with key resistance at $700 for the near term. A breakout above $700 would be an extremely bullish indicator, with the next key resistance coming in at around $760. To the downside, we have support at $665. A break below that, and we will find the next support at $648. Finally, any break lower than that would likely take us to as low as the support at $637.
Tesla news this week includes:
Tesla news this week includes:
- Tesla Q2 2021 Earnings Review
- China Survey: Model 3 ranks third for being one of the least complained cars in Q2
- Tesla US Model Y Long Range estimated delivery dates pushed further from October to November
- FSD V9.1 update coming Friday midnight
- Tesla only auto manufacturer showing global revenue growth in comparison to Daimler, BMW, JLR, Volvo
- Elon Musk defends GM Chevy Bolt recall regarding increased fire risk
- Tesla Model Y/3 could already be sold out for 2021
- NYC approves Revel’s fleet of Tesla taxis
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Future will include autonomous and connected vehicles
- Tesla Model 3 catapults to #2 best-selling car in Europe in June
- Elon Musk on FSD/Robotaxis: Getting it done
- Cheaper, compact Tesla model may come sooner than you think
It always seemed to me as a noob that catalysts, beats and misses drive the bullish and bearish chart behavior… ln these situations is technical analysis primarily a way of identifying exits and entries? A way of verifying these the stock is responding a certain way?
TSLA shares have been riding in the vicinity of their rising 200-day SMA (simple moving average) since mid-May. That SMA now stands at $648.52. There have been several attempts to pull above before falling back. On Thursday and Friday, we witnessed another run above. Continuation upward would be technically encouraging. Let’s keep our eyes on this during the coming week.
Nice gain for TSLA so far today. It's holding up fairly well against pressure and meanderings the last few hours by the macro market. The continued push above TSLA's 200-day SMA (simple moving average) is a technically welcome sign.
Technical analysis can be a good way to identify exits after those events, but directionality prior those events is so variable (will underlying go up or down due to earnings, etc) that TA doesn't really work on the front end of a position...at least certainly not as a standalone method of analysis.
Not by much, but a fifth successive up day for TSLA. During that span, it moved and remained above its 200-day SMA (simple moving average). Technically, that could be viewed as encouraging.
if you follow the A/D line (Accumulation/Distribution), based on volume and increase/decrease, it fairly steadily rose from the time of the RobinHood Conference and the Mark B Spiegel (i think of TSLAQ) presentation of about 300 powerpoint pages of “why Tesla is and will fail”, (around the end of november, 2016 i believe.)(quite bad track record and i occasionally thank him for my inexpensive TSLA shares, to no avail)
However, from right around S&P inclusion time, early december 2020, the A/D line has been essentially flat.
i’m unsure of the meaning of this, perhaps less easy upwards pressure for awhile?
However, from right around S&P inclusion time, early december 2020, the A/D line has been essentially flat.
i’m unsure of the meaning of this, perhaps less easy upwards pressure for awhile?
A gain of only a little more than the previous two sessions, nevertheless a seventh successive up day for TSLA. At the start of that span, it pushed above its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) and has remained there ever since. This continues to be encouraging.
Similar threads
- Locked
