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TSLA Trading Strategies

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For those that follow my exploits somewhat and/or care, I have significantly increased my cash position in the last week to over 90%. I don't like the global economic outlook or the market outlook for US equities or really any asset other than cash. So that's where I am.
Good luck. So many names from 3 yrs ago have fallen off. I understand how you feel but I cannot think of a time when everything was "right". It seems like all the dire crisis episodes from the past in retrospect were not "so bad". Are you still getting your model X? Hope so.
 
For those that follow my exploits somewhat and/or care, I have significantly increased my cash position in the last week to over 90%. I don't like the global economic outlook or the market outlook for US equities or really any asset other than cash. So that's where I am.

Yeah, wow. While it stung to take losses last week, today I'm very glad to be largely out of stocks. This is real fear, and I think it is based on systemic worries rather than knee-jerk crisis reactions.

I still like Tesla the company, but it looks like we may finally get a cyclical re-set on the stock market overall and I'm waiting on the sidelines for now.
 
Today is the typical reversal day. Market makers made such a drastic drop in the past 3 weeks. We should see nice and strong rebound into next week. Personally I bought some Feb 192.5 ATM calls during the dip. Expect to see 100% gain.

I don't think it's typical, I think there are margin calls, forced selling by sovereign wealth funds at a massive scale to sustain the oil price wars, looming oil defaults destroying US jobs, flat wages, global GDP revisions downward, and serious currency crises.
 
I don't think it's typical, I think there are margin calls, forced selling by sovereign wealth funds at a massive scale to sustain the oil price wars, looming oil defaults destroying US jobs, flat wages, global GDP revisions downward, and serious currency crises.
That is why my name here is chickenlittle. The sky won't fall and even if resesion, which I don't believe we will see this year, the market will survive. There have been many crisis that seemed insurmountable but in retrospect we survived
 
My gut feeling for this downturn is correction instead of sign of recession. The downturn is mainly triggered by China, North Korea and OIL fears, nothing rooted from US economy itself. Usually only US problem can knock the US equity market down (e.g. 2000, 2008), otherwise it's just temporary thing.

Also I feel the market was so manipulated by exaggerating those external factors. The main reason is without QE money, it's hard to boost the index to new high. Instead the market makers will make (BIG) dips, then make profit on the way to recovery.

By knowing this. I'm optimistic for the stock market in next a few months. But will keep alert for macro issues and lower my expectation for TSLA this year. The market makers might replay the same drama several months from now.
 
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In last 3 days, OIL bounced big and so on the stock market. The "manipulated" Jan. correction is bigger than last August but panic index (VIX) is lower. What happened after August panic sell, the indices climbed to close ATH within 2 months. Let's see what'll happen from now to March but I can't exclude the possibility that we'll have replay from last correction.
 
In last 3 days, OIL bounced big and so on the stock market. The "manipulated" Jan. correction is bigger than last August but panic index (VIX) is lower. What happened after August panic sell, the indices climbed to close ATH within 2 months. Let's see what'll happen from now to March but I can't exclude the possibility that we'll have replay from last correction.

In general, TSLA rebounds around March and dips after September. So I am slowly gathering my cash at the moment and waiting for confirmation that this is not a dead cat's bounce.
 
Again, don't be scared by this manipulated market. We shall see nice bounce in next a few weeks. TA wise: MACD golden cross from the bottom for all major indices, that bode well for bounce; FA wise, Earing is not bad, Fed meeting minutes will be dovish even turbulence might be expected tomorrow; Btw, China will have lunar new year soon, so no more bad news from China in next several weeks. Beyond than that, I don't know:biggrin:
 
Does anyone sell puts as part of their strategy? With the price this deflated, it seems like a good time. For example, a Jan '17 $125 can be sold for $1.2k right now. I don't see things changing so dramatically that I wouldn't be fine picking up some TSLA for $113 a share next January, even on margin. But I guess you never know with the macro.
 
Does anyone sell puts as part of their strategy? With the price this deflated, it seems like a good time. For example, a Jan '17 $125 can be sold for $1.2k right now. I don't see things changing so dramatically that I wouldn't be fine picking up some TSLA for $113 a share next January, even on margin. But I guess you never know with the macro.
I've done this (by this, I mean selling puts), but concluded that the risk/reward may actually be better with selling puts atm. (more theta). Selling puts is the same as covered calls. The problem with far out options is the spread-cost.
 
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Well just for fun I bought back the Jun @300 calls which I sold for $5.40 on Jan 4. They were only $.95. I'm hoping I can sell half at $2 at some point if something like Model 3 reveal gets us going in the other direction and then maybe the rest at $4-5 if I'm lucky but also just plain old gambling.
 
Well just for fun I bought back the Jun @300 calls which I sold for $5.40 on Jan 4. They were only $.95. I'm hoping I can sell half at $2 at some point if something like Model 3 reveal gets us going in the other direction and then maybe the rest at $4-5 if I'm lucky but also just plain old gambling.

Nice! I did not even open my 'positions' page on my trading account today. My DCA LEAPS, while not DOA, are pretty sick. On a positive note I bought a bunch of FB calls for .50 that as I watch the ticker may put a little (too little) green into the account.
 
Nice! I did not even open my 'positions' page on my trading account today. My DCA LEAPS, while not DOA, are pretty sick. On a positive note I bought a bunch of FB calls for .50 that as I watch the ticker may put a little (too little) green into the account.

Consider *shorting* the equivalent number of FB shares during after hours trading to lock in profit on your calls. You can then close both positions tomorrow during market hours for the locked-in gain.

This is a strategy that has served me very well in the past when I've made options plays for earnings and the after-hours price action is more extreme than what I expect the next day during market hours.
 
Consider *shorting* the equivalent number of FB shares during after hours trading to lock in profit on your calls. You can then close both positions tomorrow during market hours for the locked-in gain.

This is a strategy that has served me very well in the past when I've made options plays for earnings and the after-hours price action is more extreme than what I expect the next day during market hours.

Thanks. I will look into that......:wink:
 
Ok. The mood in here is palpable, which to me signals another huge rally like others have mentioned in late 2012/early 2013.
I went all in at that time with my retirement at $38/share, and am happy with that, but feel that this is another time to take a risk. There's just too much positive catalysts coming up to ignore and too much short interest.

My question is, since I've never traded options before, what would be the best way to get a ROI if I'm convinced that TSLA will rebound to at least $240 in the next 3-6 months?
I don't have any funds in my self-directed 401k since I already went all in, but I do have $10k cash in a bank I'm willing to risk.

Thanks for any advice, and don't worry, I will NOT come on here and sulk and rage-quit if my $10k disappears. I'm an adult and taking this risk on my on volition.

There are lots of ways that options can bite you, so I will list a few and suggest a very conservative way to get your options feet wet. Hopefully, others will offer their own strategies so that you hear from several voices.

Things that can bite you with options:
*Your option expiring soon but TSLA hasn't gone to the moon yet. As you know, Tesla is often delayed in implementing things. Buy options with an expiration date that is well beyond your expected sales date because of delays and because you can profit from selling an option with some of its time value still remaining.
* Buying options with too expensive a time value. Take a look at Jan17 100 strike, Jan17 160 strike calls, and Jan17 190 strike calls. If you add the strike price to the approximate price of the call $100+$90=$190, $160+$46=$206, and $190+$32=$222, you get a number that can be compared to the current price of the stock ($188). The difference between the current stock price and the numbers we just computed is the time value you're paying for that option. By the time the option expires, the time value will be $0. The time value drops as time goes on but there's another reason for it to drop. The farther in the money the option is, the less time value as well. Thus, we see the time value for the $100 call as $190-188=$2, for the $160 call as $206-188=$18, and for the $190 call as $222-188=$34. You can see that the higher the strike price, the more leverage you have (you can buy 1 $100 strike call for <$10,000, 2 $160 calls for < $10,000, or 3 $190 calls for <$10,000). You increase your leverage as you raise the strike price, but you also increase the time value you're paying for the call, so in reality you will not make 3 times as much money with the $190 strike price as with the $100 strike price, even though you own three times as many calls. Which solution works better? It depends upon how high the stock price goes before you sell. If you go for out of the money calls (calls with a strike price greater than the current stock price), the time value is high but the leverage is of course higher, too. The negative is that you can lose all your money if the stock never climbs close to your strike price.

Personally, I see the time value for $190 Jan17s as being very steep, and I see the time value of $100 strike Jan17s as being very cheap. What you need to decide is whether you are investing or gambling or going somewhere in between. May I suggest a conservative doubling of your leverage with a $100 strike Jan17 call? Instead of making about $2500 as 50 TSLA shares gain 50 points, you make about $5000-$200 lost time value=$4800 as TSLA gains 50 points. You double your reward with minimal risk unless the bottom really falls out of the stock. Let's say you go for the $190 call and it gains 50 points, too. You gain 300 x $50=$15,000, but you lose your 300 x $34 time value if you hold the call until right before expiration, and so you really make $300 x16 =$4800 and are exposed to a lot more risk. Naturally, you would make more with the 190 strike call if you sell earlier or if the stock climbs more than 50 points, but you need to weigh the chances of something negative happening (like a recession and its pull on stock prices) with the chances of TSLA going to the moon in 2016. Sometimes people go for super-high strike prices and make a lot of money, but most of the time these people lose their investment, rather than making money. I see this as gambling.
 
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There are lots of ways that options can bite you, so I will list a few and suggest a very conservative way to get your options feet wet. Hopefully, others will offer their own strategies so that you hear from several voices.

Things that can bite you with options:
*Your option expiring soon but TSLA hasn't gone to the moon yet. As you know, Tesla is often delayed in implementing things. Buy options with an expiration date that is well beyond your expected sales date because of delays and because you can profit from selling an option with some of its time value still remaining.
* Buying options with too expensive a time value. Take a look at Jan17 100 strike, Jan17 160 strike calls, and Jan17 190 strike calls. If you add the strike price to the approximate price of the call $100+$90=$190, $160+$46=$206, and $190+$32=$222, you get a number that can be compared to the current price of the stock ($188). The difference between the current stock price and the numbers we just computed is the time value you're paying for that option. By the time the option expires, the time value will be $0. The time value drops as time goes on but there's another reason for it to drop. The farther in the money the option is, the less time value as well. Thus, we see the time value for the $100 call as $190-188=$2, for the $160 call as $206-188=$18, and for the $190 call as $222-188=$34. You can see that the higher the strike price, the more leverage you have (you can buy 1 $100 strike call for <$10,000, 2 $160 calls for < $10,000, or 3 $190 calls for <$10,000). You increase your leverage as you raise the strike price, but you also increase the time value you're paying for the call, so in reality you will not make 3 times as much money with the $190 strike price as with the $100 strike price, even though you own three times as many calls. Which solution works better? It depends upon how high the stock price goes before you sell. If you go for out of the money calls (calls with a strike price greater than the current stock price), the time value is high but the leverage is of course higher, too. The negative is that you can lose all your money if the stock never climbs close to your strike price.

Personally, I see the time value for $190 Jan17s as being very steep, and I see the time value of $100 strike Jan17s as being very cheap. What you need to decide is whether you are investing or gambling or going somewhere in between. May I suggest a conservative doubling of your leverage with a $100 strike Jan17 call? Instead of making about $2500 as 50 TSLA shares gain 50 points, you make about $5000-$200 lost time value=$4800 as TSLA gains 50 points. You double your reward with minimal risk unless the bottom really falls out of the stock. Let's say you go for the $190 call and it gains 50 points, too. You gain 300 x $50=$15,000, but you lose your 300 x $34 time value if you hold the call until right before expiration, and so you really make $300 x16 =$4800 and are exposed to a lot more risk. Naturally, you would make more with the 190 strike call if you sell earlier or if the stock climbs more than 50 points, but you need to weigh the chances of something negative happening (like a recession and its pull on stock prices) with the chances of TSLA going to the moon in 2016. Sometimes people go for super-high strike prices and make a lot of money, but most of the time these people lose their investment, rather than making money. I see this as gambling.

This is really well explained Papafox. Thanks for that. I think the medium risk solution you're proposing sounds very attractive. So once you purchase these options, you basically wait until it rises to your satisfaction (hopefully) and can sell at anytime? Ideally the faster the better if it spikes? Thanks.
 
This is really well explained Papafox. Thanks for that. I think the medium risk solution you're proposing sounds very attractive. So once you purchase these options, you basically wait until it rises to your satisfaction (hopefully) and can sell at anytime? Ideally the faster the better if it spikes? Thanks.

that or you roll 'em forward before time value starts tapering off drastically.