Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

[brianman]

- As Elon mentioned within the past two weeks, no one has ever died or suffered permanent injury in these or ANY other Tesla accidents.

Clarification:
1. Here your "in" refers to the accidents generally, rather than Model s occupants.
2. IIRC, Elon's comments were phrased to refer specifically to Model S occupants.
3. IIRC, there *have* been deaths of occupants of vehicles that collided with Model S.

Assuming I didn't typo all that, Elon's comments remain correct but your phrasing is incorrect.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Well if my PhD in particle physics and participation in the discovery of the Higgs particle (for which the ohysics Nobel was given this year) are not credentials enough (and a simple google will confirm them). Then how about you just take a random Poisson probability calculator on the interwebs and do the simple math. Most take two numbers: expected events, observed events and give you the probability of that occuring as well as that or less and that or more. Expecting one fire and observing three is a 6% event and >=3 is 8%. Expecting 5 events (as in 5 per 100M miles driven) and seeing three or less is 26.5% probability.

in statistics it's evidence at 3 sigma or ca 99% exclusion. If an event is less than 5% likely we call 95% exclusion limit. Neither case I highlighted gets even close to 3 sigma and are both excluded as significant at 95% confidence level.

See read for yourself then go and reproduce it if you doubt.

 

[qwk]

Tesla lost $38 million this quarter. They need wide consumer appeal to turn a profit and the fires aren't helping matters any. Whether current owners would buy again or not is of less importance than whether future owners will buy. Why? Because current owners aren't numerous enough to support the company long term.

Tesla is supply constrained at least for another year. Once you drive the car, you are hooked. There is not only nothing like the Model S, the closest car is light years away from it.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Ruining humor by explaining it:
He was focusing on the "and", noting that he "felt" "mentally lower class" because he doesn't have all 3 (delivered/reserved).

At least that's how I read it.

In my defense though, I wasn’t aware of my mistake at the time.

Since post #506 I am. See post #510.

It seems Shumdit beat you to it. :wink:


Edit: Since a bunch of posts got moved to the snippiness thread, those post numbers are no longer correct…

 

[brianman]

It seems Shumdit beat you to it. :wink:

Yah, I was busy trying to find out how to shift into 2nd gear.

 

[qwk]

As good as the Model S is, it isn't perfect.

Show me a car that is perfect, or anything else for that matter. The Model S is as close to a perfect car that one can get.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

But is there a problem? Or is it merely your opinion? And to me, your opinion is quite frankly not worth very much – if anything at all. I’d take the opinions and analysis of Mario, neroden, Doug_G and flybob08 over yours anyday!

Here’s a poll that suggests merely a somewhat minor problem among current owners:

How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information?

And if folks continue to buy Teslas, to the extent that Tesla continues to be production constrained, then is there really a problem? Doesn’t seem like it to me.

Tesla lost $38 million this quarter. They need wide consumer appeal to turn a profit and the fires aren't helping matters any. Whether current owners would buy again or not is of less importance than whether future owners will buy. Why? Because current owners aren't numerous enough to support the company long term.

Hence the last paragraph of my post that you quoted. (I have no idea if $38 million is correct though…)

 

[Grendal]

I'm not sure whether this has been posted here yet, so here you go if it hasn't. Complete with good pictures of the bottom of the car.

Looking at the Battery Pack From Below - 2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Road Test

 

[BillHamp]

Oh, I am not making an argument. I am just amusing myself. For someone that doesn't own a Tesla you sure seem to want to see some changes. I, on the other hand, have invested six figures into one of their automobiles and I am not really concerned. I see this as just 2 bad coincidences and one drunk driver who was lucky to run away.

As someone who supports the EV industry and who would purchase a Tesla (just not the Model S), I very much want to see some changes. You may be right about this just being a run of bad luck, though it seems there is more to it. It certainly happens. Unfortunately, that won't help with public perception or with the success of Tesla.

 

[birdsaresmarter]

AYE YAY YAY! Come on, I don't think there is anybody here who does NOT understand the importance of the "public perception issue". The "sheeple", as somebody else put it, get spoon-fed the b.s. by the infotainment masquerading as "news" every day. Short repetitive sound bites to drum the agenda into their heads. I look at the pure C.R.A.P. that passes as news or facts in the "mainstream media" and it is beyond repulsive to me. It's no conspiracy theory to simply observe that there are numerous opposing interests just looking for ANYTHING they can find to claim there is something inherently wrong with the cars. Let's face it people, they own the media outlets. However, I would rather let TM respond to this appropriately, as I still have confidence that they will. With all the naysayers looking for any excuse to put an end to something different which threatens them in whatever way they feel threatened by it, a little counterweight of some optimism and support is not shameful, IMO. I saw some retort of "you are the public" earlier. Yes and no. It shoudn't come as any surprise that there are mostly enthusiasts and supporters here. Mostly I think people are just venting their apprehension because they know about the opposing interests just looking for the right opportunity to exploit to kill change and competition. Hey, anybody remember Tucker?

 

[BillHamp]

I'm not sure whether this has been posted here yet, so here you go if it hasn't. Complete with good pictures of the bottom of the car.

Looking at the Battery Pack From Below - 2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Road Test

Great article. Thanks for posting.

 

[Grendal]

Great article. Thanks for posting.

You're welcome.

The one thing I got from reading the article is that the plastic aerodynamic covering in front of the pack could be replaced with something metal. That would probably not be too costly or weight intensive and it would, at the very least, allow Tesla to make a PR modification that would strengthen the "problem area." I could easily see that striking a large metal object would penetrate that plastic easily then continue on into the battery pack.

 

[Born 2 Skydive]

Mercedes-Benz catches on fire and explodes - Tampa Bay sports car | Examiner.com
lexus cars catching fire - Google Search
Chrysler Rejects U.S. Request to Recall Millions of Vehicles At Risk of Fuel Tank Fire | TheBlaze.com
Audi car catches fire in Mumbai - Indian Express
Nissan recalls 140,000 Altimas - AutoSpies Auto News
Toyota Recalls 7.5 Million Cars For Door Fires
Ferrari recalls 458 Italia cars after spate of fires - Telegraph
Exclusive: Lamborghini Gallardo Catches Fire At Portland Auto Show
33,000 Bentley Continental cars recalled amid fears of fire risk | Mail Online
Rolls Royce recalls more than two dozen vehicles due to potential fire hazard | Hodes Milman

Did I forget anyone else?

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: OK folks, clean up took place! The biggest delay was caused by the thread being added to faster than clean-up could take place.

A few posts got deleted as they were inappropriate.
A huge number of posts went to snippiness, apologies to the innocents caught up in that move but there were lots of responses and quoting of posts which were getting moved.

Here's a request: Let the mods handle bad behavior and use the report button for offensive posts.

Thanks.

 

[BillHamp]

You're welcome.

The one thing I got from reading the article is that the plastic aerodynamic covering in front of the pack could be replaced with something metal. That would probably not be too costly or weight intensive and it would, at the very least, allow Tesla to make a PR modification that would strengthen the "problem area." I could easily see that striking a large metal object would penetrate that plastic easily then continue on into the battery pack.

Agreed. Tesla needs to determine if that, indeed, is the issue. If so, it's a very easy fix.

- - - Updated - - -

According to a 2005 report by ABC News, 75% of car fires are due to poor maintenance. If that is the case, then assuming Elon's number of 150,000 per year is accurate, then only 37,500 are NOT due to maintenance. Given that ~7% are intentional, then that brings the number down to 27,500, which is about right for what the NHTSA reports. That being said, it does tend to amplify the fires during accident numbers for the Model S. Tesla needs to encourage the fed to investigate while it does its own analysis. Hopefully they both come to the same conclusion and then the problem will be fixed. Another fire like the last three would be a disaster.

- - - Updated - - -

Tesla is supply constrained at least for another year. Once you drive the car, you are hooked. There is not only nothing like the Model S, the closest car is light years away from it.

There is no doubt that the car is fun to drive, but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla loses money hand over fist and has for years (more or less). When they no longer have supply constraints, they will need popular support to turn a profit. If they don't address these fires to the satisfaction of the public, it could be game over. None of this has anything to do with how fun the car is to drive or how far ahead of the competition it is. Sometimes, being the leader is more of a burden than anything else.

 

[Shumdit]

Mod Note: OK folks, clean up took place! The biggest delay was caused by the thread being added to faster than clean-up could take place.

A few posts got deleted as they were inappropriate.
A huge number of posts went to snippiness, apologies to the innocents caught up in that move but there were lots of responses and quoting of posts which were getting moved.

Here's a request: Let the mods handle bad behavior and use the report button for offensive posts.

Thanks.

Bummer. I was doing some of my best work here. :tongue:

 

[Lloyd]

Well Bill, It has not slowed me down. I am on my 2nd S, Rav 4EV with tesla guts, and a model X on order. Still the best cars on the market IMO. Almost without exception, everyone who has driven one of my EV's who can afford it, has placed an order. I believe this is a speed bump on the way to the finish line. But, you are right, they (Tesla) need to handle this as a serious event, if nothing else for public perception.

 

[gameon]

This article is spot on:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog...he-someone-grab-the-tylenol/?partner=yahootix

I love it when finally someone mention low to the ground as issue (with air suspension)

Any car with low ground clearance gave me sick feeling (even before tesla was born) and too high to ground give me roll-over feelings.

I love ground clearance height for subaru forester..perfect in my mind...

Also article mention to shield battery pack from impact is for real. I never knew that small object can create such havoc..

 

[JRP3]

The one thing I got from reading the article is that the plastic aerodynamic covering in front of the pack could be replaced with something metal. That would probably not be too costly or weight intensive and it would, at the very least, allow Tesla to make a PR modification that would strengthen the "problem area." I could easily see that striking a large metal object would penetrate that plastic easily then continue on into the battery pack.

Not so sure, there seems to be a lot of "stuff" between the pack and that plastic cover, including what looks like a cross member.

 

[Lloyd]

8.6 " (Suburu Forester Height) is not appropriate for a luxury sports car!