UK 2022 Model 3 Long Range Waiting room

[Warp9lecy]

I have no EDD either. Jan order date.

 

[GRiLLA]

I have no EDD either. Jan order date.

My theory, with absolutely no knowledge, is that they've cleared the previous forecasts and people then revert to the date that was from when they ordered, unless that's past in which case it's blank. We January/Early Feb orders will have had March when we ordered, so we see blank.

 

[WannabeOwner]

My theory

I'm liking it

We January/Early Feb orders will have had March when we ordered, so we see blank.

So people who had their EDD modified (e.g. from a narrow date range in late June) to "May" will retain that, even though it is now "June", until someone manually does the "Overdue month-name EDDs to BLANK" procedure ...

There must be far more manual stuff going on than is good for Tesla. Allocation could be completely automated of course (depending on software development priorities), as soon as a car rolls off the production line (or collection is cancelled) but we are back at the stumbling blocks of a multi-billion-dollar-start-up !

I wonder how much variability there is in distinct EDDs - the more there are the more manual it would suggest it is. "May", "May 2022", "Late 2022" ... possible to do those in the software presentation layer, but given that they are "pretty dates" they could be entirely manual ...

Why is there a VIN-in-source-code and a subsequent Visible-VIN? I don't remember reading of VIN-in-source-code disappearing, but maybe that happens? much?? All very hand-to-mouth.

 

[GRiLLA]

I'm liking it


So people who had their EDD modified (e.g. from a narrow date range in late June) to "May" will retain that, even though it is now "June", until someone manually does the "Overdue month-name EDDs to BLANK" procedure ...

There must be far more manual stuff going on than is good for Tesla. Allocation could be completely automated of course (depending on software development priorities), as soon as a car rolls off the production line (or collection is cancelled) but we are back at the stumbling blocks of a multi-billion-dollar-start-up !

I wonder how much variability there is in distinct EDDs - the more there are the more manual it would suggest it is. "May", "May 2022", "Late 2022" ... possible to do those in the software presentation layer, but given that they are "pretty dates" they could be entirely manual ...

Why is there a VIN-in-source-code and a subsequent Visible-VIN? I don't remember reading of VIN-in-source-code disappearing, but maybe that happens? much?? All very hand-to-mouth.

I assume they wait until cars are on the boat for a reason, like all warning signs there's typically a back story. Perhaps there's a big pile of Model 3s in the sea by the harbour where they missed the loading ramp. I guess it also doesn't benefit them to do it any earlier.

There's clearly a phase of production planning, where they know they will be building UK spec Model 3s and colour mix etc. I suspect that was when they told us 'June' via text and then delivery weeks, but then there was unforeseen disruption leaving them far short.

My theory would be that we will now sit with an array of vague months or blanks until the next UK production is scheduled next quarter, then get back to a more firm month, then week, then collection date.

 

[stufarri]

in my case I will be following stufarri and UltramarineX as we have the same spec but each having ordered a month and two months after me

I’m hoping my white interior will mean more of a chance of getting it sooner as they are less popular. Fingers crossed but not hopeful.

 

[khyros]

My theory, with absolutely no knowledge, is that they've cleared the previous forecasts and people then revert to the date that was from when they ordered, unless that's past in which case it's blank. We January/Early Feb orders will have had March when we ordered, so we see blank.

I guess we now need to see if people who had "May" as the placeholder EDD are reverting to an empty EDD like us?
it would make sense. I was stupid enough to delay delivery in March as I was going to be away for 6 weeks. Silly silly, I know.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I assume they wait until cars are on the boat for a reason

Extrapolating on your theory a bit ...

That's been my assumption too.

They could assign EDD as they roll off production line. Maybe they have just never got around to building the automated software linkages to do that ... or maybe they want to delay so that they have the ability to jump-the-queue (until later in the process).

Assuming the latter (e.g. I have just placed an order, and for whatever reason I'm a better prospect that some others in the queue, so they get bumped - Hertz placing an order for 100,000 cars) then only need to allocate the narrow-band EDD, say, 14 days before handover. Until then a Month Name will do.

Month Name can be allocated immediately order is placed - based on a preliminary allocation of Order to Scheduled Production Batch. Unless someone with higher p[priority comes along such that I get to "last one from that batch" and then one more and I get bumped to "Next production batch" (quite possibly "next quarter") and only then would my EDD bump from "Month" to "Month+2-or-3" - but we are actually seeing EDDs move wholesale backwards, forwards and sideways - and frequently. As well as changing to "narrow date range" and then back to "Haven't a clue" (although lets assume that some of the "July" we have seen this time might be attributed to a boat which has gone into port for repairs and is therefore delayed. That's just a delay - rather than "Sunk, go to back of queue").

It is possible that some of this shuffling is reacting to supplier parts availability. Scheduled Product Batch doesn't happen for some reason - e.g. no Blue paint. So all the orders with preliminary assignment to that batch now get pushed back. Post Shanghai lockdown there may well be plenty of that sort of fiddling to build batches for parts that can be acquired ... but maybe they do that in normal times too?. e.g. what parts are available at least-cost and most effective just-in-time (minimum warehouse stock) - then juggle production batches accordingly.

Makes the e.g. VW "every option variation coming down the line and made to order" look primitive - at least from an efficiency / profit perspective.

There's clearly a phase of production planning, where they know they will be building UK spec Model 3s and colour mix etc. I suspect that was when they told us 'June' via text and then delivery weeks, but then there was unforeseen disruption leaving them far short.

I presume that Production Batch Scheduling has a number of facets:

• How many back orders have we got for each option-combination
• What is our supplier order-position for bill-of-materials for those order? That will also need efficient co-ordination for just-in-time parts delivery from Suppliers to factory
• What is an economic production batch size - so maybe take "back order count" and round up to "Best Batch size" (and probably take into account the normal run-rate for orders for that option combination, i.e. make anything for which we are likely to get an order before end-of-quarter)

So we now have, say, 20 batches to produce to match the various option combinations. Those are associated with physical orders (in some shape or form ...) and those orders have "value" - likelihood of customer-completion, speed / reliability of payment e.g. Lease vs cash, and maybe one lease company better than another. And age-of-order - otherwise low-margin / high-hassle orders would never make it to the front of the queue!

There will also be considerations for how many handovers there will be at Bluewater vs. Edinburgh, and how many transporters are available for Edinburgh (further distance, so transporter will make fewer trips than to Bluewater - so a balancing act to be done), as well as what ships are available on the high sees (I suppose all MY take up the same space - and the RORO is probably weight, rather than space, limited with EVs - so best-mix of M3 and MY probably doesn't enter into the equation).

If it were me all those variables would be "in play" for the algorithm to assign car-order to production-batch. In our back-office systems if you are a fast payer, and have a large account, we will invoice you first in our invoice run - favours our cashflow. If you pay on a particular day of the month we will invoice you just-in-time to catch your payment run. We flag your account as Priority too so if you are a fast payer you are earlier in the invoice run, but you are also flagged for priority service - the two go together. As a long term Tesla customer of quite a few cars I've not experience that they entertain any of that!! Maybe they do at the Qty that Hertz buy

There may be some wiggle-room - what will happen if a car fails EDI? - e.g. roof cracked. Repair it; Carry "one or two spares" (which will otherwise be offered to orders later in the queue or put into inventory); or "Bump to next batch". Also the whole delayed-collection and cancellation issue - but that's easy (I think!), just offer that to next-in-line.

The later that cars are allocated to orders the more flexibility ... comes back to Customer doesn't really need a firm date until 14 days before collection, so allocating as late as possible provides flexibility to prioritise someone else. "Bonanza Flash-Sale - One-Day-Only : add FSD to jump the queue"

But all the jumping around of EDDs suggests that there is loads of Manual and Tesla Chaos involved ... which could be improved / mechanised IMHO.

 

[khyros]

well guys. New delivery window.
Estimated Delivery: August 17 - October 01

 

[GRiLLA]

well guys. New delivery window.
Estimated Delivery: August 17 - October 01

Mine's reappeared as November 13 - December 28 !

 

[GRiLLA]

User	Exterior	Interior	Wheels	Order Type	Autopilot	Collection	Order Date	EDD	Collection	VIN
TLC1986	White	Black	Aero				22/11/2021		25-Jun
Ben88	Black	Black	Aero				14/01/2022	15 - 29 June	28-Jun
SpareHeadOne	Black	Black	Aero				16/01/2022		24/06/2022	Y
Warp9lecy	White	Black	Aero			Trafford	22/01/2022	19 - 30 June
GRiLLA	MSM	Black	Aero	Cash	Enhanced	Staines	29/01/2022	Nov 13 - Dec 28
Khyros	Blue	Black	19"	Cash		Bluewater	07/02/2022	Aug 17 - Oct 01
DaveMGoT	MSM	Black	Aero	Cash		Bristol	14/02/2022	August
Cappo11	MSM	Black	Aero	Contract Hire	No	Home Delivery	18/02/2022	August
stufarri	Blue	White	19"				04/03/2022	June
mhkmiah1	MSM	White	Aero	Tesla PCP		Newcastle	05/03/2022	August
Ted56	Red	Black	Aero			Bluewater	05/03/2022	November
Skillboy	Blue	Black	Aero	Cash		Bluewater	05/03/2022	November
The_Cable_Guy	White	Black	19"			Southampton	12/03/2022	November
reQ00	White	Black	Aero				15/03/2022	30 June?
Minimalist3000	White	White	19"			Bluewater	15/03/2022
AshleyM3LR	White	Black	Aero	Lease		Home delivery	18/03/2022
SBPY	White	White	Aero				10/04/2022	November
UltramarineX	Blue	Black	19"	Tesla PCP		Bluewater	17/04/2022	August
dom_cambs	Black	Black	19"					August
JHWL	MSM	Black	19"					July
PeeronTusk	MSM	Black	Aero			Manchester		19 - 30 June

 

[WannabeOwner]

Mine's reappeared as November 13 - December 28 !

Its come to a manager's attention from some analysis of time spent in call centre.

"FFS stop all these "When" support calls. Put everyone back to "hopeless" and then surprise some/all? of them next quarter with a "Now", but stop faffing them back, forth, and sideways."

Too optimistic? !

 

[Skillboy]

Looks Like I have a new EDD September25-November 9.

 

[SBPY]

Mine has just jumped back to the end of the year

 

[SBPY]

One tiny bit of positivity was that any cars delivered from late November on last year had the new upgrades. I wonder if that would happen in this instance.

 

[Richardb987]

Mine's reappeared as November 13 - December 28 !

I've got new EDD August to 8th October

 

[mhkmiah1]

Mine just updated from August 2022 to November 14 - December 29
I’m sure that will change again but Wonder if that means the next lot of cars manufactured and shipped will be model ys

 

[Sparkyhughes]

As per my signature below I appear to have been one of the lucky ones. Delivery confirmed for 24th June

 

[Cappo11]

Same here folks. EDD has moved from August 2022 to November 27 to January 11...

I find it bizarre that the new EDD is a 6 week 2 day long period. Anyone else got one as unusual as this?

 

[DaveMGoT]

My date's moved again today as well - from just August to Aug 17th -October 1st.

M3LR/MSM/Black/Aeros - order date 14/2/22

 

[askhan]

Ordered 16 Jan 22
M.Silver,LR, Aero, Black.
EDD: multiples from march to may and then June.
Received a Text: that vehicle will be delivered in June.

Today , Tesls F***ked UP and its gone to January 2023