Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming

[mrmage]

There are always going to be winners and losers in life.
Timing usually has a lot to do with it.

UBI just feels like another version of, everybody gets a trophy.
I hate it.

UBI doesn't change the winners and losers. And the losers don't get a trophy, they all get consolation prizes. Assuming that robots and AI get to the point where they can do most the work, what's wrong with that?

But if someone wants a beachfront house? They'll still have to work for it, because robots aren't making any more beachfront. Or maybe they can... pound sand may mean something entirely different in 2050.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

UBI doesn't change the winners and losers. And the losers don't get a trophy, they all get consolation prizes. Assuming that robots and AI get to the point where they can do most the work, what's wrong with that?

But if someone wants a beachfront house? They'll still have to work for it, because robots aren't making any more beachfront. Or maybe they can... pound sand may mean something entirely different in 2050.

Again, all ideas, no details. That's what's wrong with it.
At least I'm offering actionable solutions.

 

[AnbaricBike]

The actionable solution is...teach grandma about crypto?

 

[mrmage]

Again, all ideas, no details. That's what's wrong with it.
At least I'm offering actionable solutions.

No details because AI and robots aren't able to do most the work yet. Action will be taken only when they displace enough humans from their jobs.

 

[heltok]

UBI doesn't change the winners and losers. And the losers don't get a trophy, they all get consolation prizes. Assuming that robots and AI get to the point where they can do most the work, what's wrong with that?

But if someone wants a beachfront house? They'll still have to work for it, because robots aren't making any more beachfront. Or maybe they can... pound sand may mean something entirely different in 2050.

If we get ASI, smart robots on earth, space mining and factories in space, build a dyson sphere etc we will have insane amounts of energy and plenty of matter and can transform the universe into plenty of beach front spaces like this:

That is, if we survive.

 

[wdolson]

You can call it the "Everyone gets rich" dividend. It doesn't matter what you call it, it's a terrible idea, that no one has even remotely explained how it would work on a national scale. Yang has "ideas". I'm skeptical of his "plans" behind them.

"where income doesn't start at zero" - So what does that look like?
We already have a "minimum wage" in this country. It's a joke, and hasn't really been a living wage in a long time, but UBI doesn't fix that. It would actually eliminate the minimum wage. Employers would only want to pay a certain amount above UBI.
So how much are you talking about giving every single adult in the country? Less than the min wage? More than?
Who pays for that? How is that even fiscally/financially possible? No one has those answers, because it can't be done at scale!
The government cannot just continue to create more fiat out of thin air to pay for whatever they want! That's why we're in this trouble in the first place.

Everyone seems to fall in love with the idea of free money, I mean UBI, but no one will talk about the unintended consequences of a UBI:
- No incentive to work: You set the amount too low, it's no different than welfare and min wage. You set it too high, many just choose to not work at all.
- Very likely only disbursed via CBDC ("implementation & automatic electronic transfer"), which myself and many others have already explained to be digital slavery.
- Elimination/drastic cuts to all social programs: Because those funds would need to go to paying the UBI, but for those in need of those services, they are above and beyond just a living wage. Not to mention even more jobs lost when those services shut down.
And many more too numerous to list.

Yes, every innovation in history has meant some jobs were lost. But it also meant other jobs were created.
- Candlemakers were drastically reduced when electricity was developed. They found other jobs.
- Horse ranchers were dramatically affected when the automobile was invented. They pivoted to cattle.
- Long distance phone carriers, the USPS, bookstores, Mom & Pop's of all kinds, and many other industries were greatly impacted by the introduction of the internet.
And the list goes on and on... My point being, AI and robotics are absolutely going to greatly impact many, many industries. But civilization, as a whole, will do what it's always done, and evolve, adapt, and continue on. Those that can't, fall.
That's true in nature and capitalism. The smartest, strongest, survive.

"The bottom line is that a lot of people in this country are very poor and lack skill or sometimes even basic education."
Exactly! We agree on that completely. We're just different in how we would fix that.
You want to gov subsidize the symptoms of the problem with UBI. I want to go to the source and fix it.

For example, we have a severe lack of skilled labor in this country. We need more electricians, plumbers, carpenters, masons, etc...
This country has focused so hard for decades on going to college, getting a degree, and shaming anyone who doesn't have that (many times unused) piece of paper. So much so, that the skilled workmen we do still have are quickly reaching retirement age, and there aren't hardly any apprentices to take their place.
But because our broken education system doesn't encourage anyone to go to trade schools anymore, we're in this situation. *
The university system is a for-profit business, and the more the government subsidizes and pays for student loans, the higher and higher tuition rates will go. The government is the problem.
And that's just one example of other jobs, that are in high demand, and pay very well, that many people could do if AI/robotics costs them theirs. Sure, there's an aging generation that this transition will be harder on.
Not to sound harsh, but that's just Darwinian progress.
We've been devolving as a society for decades now. Technology is outpacing our brain's ability to evolve, and this is what we get for it.
And tech isn't slowing down, so we sure as hell better speed up!

You're just accepting a society of poor, less skilled/educated and want to throw money at the current symptoms. I don't accept that.
I have a longer-term solution. I want to help those people, all people, help themselves by exiting the system that is rigged to hold them down. Show/teach them a better way. A way that they can actually start to improve their own situations individually. And that has to start at the source of the problem, the government's control and manipulation of the money. Every single one of the superficial issues are all rooted in that.
Fix the money, fix the world.
Educate the public about what is money, and how it works. That's not taught in US schools, because the gov doesn't want us to know what they're doing. So we have to take it upon ourselves to search for that knowledge.
That's the single biggest thing I've benefitted from when learning about Bitcoin. I dove into what is money, and for the first time in my life, realized how rigged the system was. Not broken, rigged. It's working exactly the way they (gov) want it to. And it's impossible to try and change that system from within. Many have tried and failed.
The only answer was to exit that system. But before Bitcoin existed, there was no such exit. And that's the way the gov wants to keep it. So they'll try every way possible to remove any exits. It's why they're so against it. They can't control, duplicate, or manipulate Bitcoin in their rigged system. (Whether you're for or against BTC, I still encourage everyone to research what is money, educate themselves, and make their own decisions.)

You want a UBI, because you don't want to deal with your own problems. Just give all your rights and freedoms to the gov. They'll handle them, tell me what to do. I'll own nothing, and like it. Zero accountability. That's a Keynesian economist's answer to everything.

That's NOT what our founding fathers wanted! They fought to give those rights and freedoms TO THE PEOPLE.
Not to become the hierarchy they were fighting against! They were true Libertarians! **

No thanks. Give me back my rights and freedoms, as the founding fathers wanted.
If I mess up, I clean it up myself. We don't take bailouts.

*I wish the current education system would teach what matters, but since the Industrial Age, all it's done is spit out brainwashed drone employees.
Do you ever wonder why so many self-made millionaires/billionaires dropped out of school at some level? It's because they saw what they wanted to do, and school wasn't helping them get to that. Now I'm all for education, not saying everyone should just drop out. But I'm for education reform first. Not enough people are willing to leave their comfy personal surroundings to learn something new, especially if it's uncomfortable, or takes a little work.
** The titles of Republican and Democrat came later, and were really just variations of Libertarian values, just differing ways to go about it. They've been morphed into something that's completely lost their original meaning.

Anyway, sorry, I get off on tangents.

I would recommend this book. I went in as an extreme skeptic, but he told the idea
https://www.amazon.com/Utopia-Reali...1717226616&sprefix=utopia+for+,aps,153&sr=8-1

No details because AI and robots aren't able to do most the work yet. Action will be taken only when they displace enough humans from their jobs.

Considering the sort of resistance to anything that might make life easier for anyone else in the US, I don't think anything will be done until it's way too late. I'm not convinced that AI is going to get to the levels necessary to replace human jobs. Elon has been predicting robo-taxis right around the corner for more than 10 years. Progress has been made, but we're not there yet.

But say it does happen. As AI takes over, it will result in mass unemployment. The fat cats who are making a lot of money from this tech will be perfectly happy to keep all the rewards from an AI economy and will resist with up to 1% of their wealth (which will be staggering amounts of money) to stop anything like UBI. They will make sure their media outlets do everything possible to turn the now unemployed on each other rather than them.

Parts of the developed world could turn into third world hell holes with 90% of the population living a subsistence existence while a small number of staggeringly wealthy live it up with a small middle class doing the few jobs left the AI aren't doing.

I would say that there is a good chance that if AI take over to the extent people think it will, that will be the outcome.

 

[Buckminster]

The brilliance of UBI is its simplicity. You start small and replace other benefits, folk are encouraged to continue working as it gets more significant.

 

[heltok]

The brilliance of UBI is its simplicity. You start small and replace other benefits, folk are encouraged to continue working as it gets more significant.

Imo negative income tax > UBI.

 

[Buckminster]

Nice idea but it doesn't encourage those out of work to get a job unless it is immediately set so high that it eclipses benefits.

 

[winfield100]

Parts of the developed world could turn into third world hell holes with 90% of the population living a subsistence existence while a small number of staggeringly wealthy live it up with a small middle class doing the few jobs left the AI aren't doing.

I would say that there is a good chance that if AI take over to the extent people think it will, that will be the outcome.

May I reccommend Richard K Morgan's "Altered Carbon" series of novels and perhaps the Neflix video version perhaps for one instance

 

[tivoboy]

Imo negative income tax > UBI.

Other than just straight welfare payments, Medicaid, child tax credits, etc… we have many of these items already in place today. Things like the EITC (earned income tax credit) which IS refundable, but does rely on the earner having income, generally at about up to 150% of the federal poverty level. Certainly it’s not much more than ~ $800 a year for a low earning INDIVIDUAL, but can be as high as ~ $3500 a year for a family of four with today incomes ~ 35K.

Add to that the “savers credit” for that sort of income bracket or even higher, where IF one puts money into a defined contribution plan the IRS/Federal Govt will add to and match the contribution up to $1000 in TAX credit ($2000 MFJ) Again, these are levels just a barely above the federal poverty levels, but still it’s money in their pocket in the form of a TAX CREDIT. Many can’t claim since they don’t HAVE $1000 or $1000 in INCOME TAX impact in any given year. In 2027 the IRS will required that this credit will be simply added to the retirement account, which is better.

But the EITC puts an annual amount out there for low wage earners that is money out, vs. tax reduction. in 2022 that amounted to just north of $60B in payments to american citizens. For the overwhelming part not federal income tax payers.

That also doesn’t include many states that have similar programs, not only to NOT TAX the “income” from the EITC, but also to match it in some ways.

 

[wdolson]

May I reccommend Richard K Morgan's "Altered Carbon" series of novels and perhaps the Neflix video version perhaps for one instance

I've read a bit of SF that took place in those sorts of worlds. And dystopian visual SF (TV and movies) is popular, but I've tended to steer away from that sub-genre. I tend to steer away from that sub-genre though. All fiction relies on some sort of conflict to drive the plot along, but I prefer the conflict not to be a world gone to pot. But that's just my preference.

Other than just straight welfare payments, Medicaid, child tax credits, etc… we have many of these items already in place today. Things like the EITC (earned income tax credit) which IS refundable, but does rely on the earner having income, generally at about up to 150% of the federal poverty level. Certainly it’s not much more than ~ $800 a year for a low earning INDIVIDUAL, but can be as high as ~ $3500 a year for a family of four with today incomes ~ 35K.

Add to that the “savers credit” for that sort of income bracket or even higher, where IF one puts money into a defined contribution plan the IRS/Federal Govt will add to and match the contribution up to $1000 in TAX credit ($2000 MFJ) Again, these are levels just a barely above the federal poverty levels, but still it’s money in their pocket in the form of a TAX CREDIT. Many can’t claim since they don’t HAVE $1000 or $1000 in INCOME TAX impact in any given year. In 2027 the IRS will required that this credit will be simply added to the retirement account, which is better.

But the EITC puts an annual amount out there for low wage earners that is money out, vs. tax reduction. in 2022 that amounted to just north of $60B in payments to american citizens. For the overwhelming part not federal income tax payers.

That also doesn’t include many states that have similar programs, not only to NOT TAX the “income” from the EITC, but also to match it in some ways.

These methods require someone prove they are eligible which they may not be capable of doing. A lot of people are poor in part because they are poorly educated and some have mental issues (cognitive or mental illness).

UBI is a different approach. It's money people don't need to prove they are eligible for. They just get it. The book I recommended cites a number of pilot projects in UBI and their successes. In London they did a pilot program with the hardest core homeless people. These were the people who were consuming the most police resources. With 12 participants and one social worker overseeing the program, they got 11 of them off the streets and I believe all 12 got off drugs. The program cost less than what it was costing the police to deal with them, but the program got discontinued.

Another program with one of the Native American tribes in the US gave every tribal member something like $500 a month, no strings attached. Many people were working multiple jobs, had no time for family or childcare. Many were able to cut back from 60 or 70 hours a week to closer to 40. And most of those spent that time focused on their family. Domestic violence went way down as well as problems with kids in the schools. Overall quality of life went up. $500 a month wasn't enough to live on, but it gave families some breathing space.

There were a number of other UBI test programs in the book.

 

[tivoboy]

I've read a bit of SF that took place in those sorts of worlds. And dystopian visual SF (TV and movies) is popular, but I've tended to steer away from that sub-genre. I tend to steer away from that sub-genre though. All fiction relies on some sort of conflict to drive the plot along, but I prefer the conflict not to be a world gone to pot. But that's just my preference.



These methods require someone prove they are eligible which they may not be capable of doing. A lot of people are poor in part because they are poorly educated and some have mental issues (cognitive or mental illness).

UBI is a different approach. It's money people don't need to prove they are eligible for. They just get it. The book I recommended cites a number of pilot projects in UBI and their successes. In London they did a pilot program with the hardest core homeless people. These were the people who were consuming the most police resources. With 12 participants and one social worker overseeing the program, they got 11 of them off the streets and I believe all 12 got off drugs. The program cost less than what it was costing the police to deal with them, but the program got discontinued.

Another program with one of the Native American tribes in the US gave every tribal member something like $500 a month, no strings attached. Many people were working multiple jobs, had no time for family or childcare. Many were able to cut back from 60 or 70 hours a week to closer to 40. And most of those spent that time focused on their family. Domestic violence went way down as well as problems with kids in the schools. Overall quality of life went up. $500 a month wasn't enough to live on, but it gave families some breathing space.

There were a number of other UBI test programs in the book.

There is no world or test where ppl didn’t have to “prove” some eligibility or access to UBI funds. Or would be.

 

[wdolson]

There is no world or test where ppl didn’t have to “prove” some eligibility or access to UBI funds. Or would be.

Some of the test cases have been among homeless in London or members of a particular Native American tribe, but no further "tests" were required for them to get funds.

I suggest you read the book I linked the other day: Utopia for Realists.

 

[tivoboy]

Some of the test cases have been among homeless in London or members of a particular Native American tribe, but no further "tests" were required for them to get funds.

I suggest you read the book I linked the other day: Utopia for Realists.

But in those instances with “no home” and no income. Isn’t that proof. As for NA eligibility. This has been a bit more fluid as reservations don’t always have consistent or complete records of WHO is WHERE or ADDRESS since many or most of these things can go unrecorded on the reservation. So compared to typical things like Medicaid and EITC or other cash back programs these often and for the most past do t require “proof” to be able to submit and receive.

I’ll checkout the book though. ABC. ALWAYS BE CURIOUS.

 

[wdolson]

But in those instances with “no home” and no income. Isn’t that proof. As for NA eligibility. This has been a bit more fluid as reservations don’t always have consistent or complete records of WHO is WHERE or ADDRESS since many or most of these things can go unrecorded on the reservation. So compared to typical things like Medicaid and EITC or other cash back programs these often and for the most past do t require “proof” to be able to submit and receive.

I’ll checkout the book though. ABC. ALWAYS BE CURIOUS.

It's been a few years since I read the book, but I believe the tribal program just required people to be enrolled tribal members. Doing a search for pilot programs I did find this
Global Map of Basic Income Experiments | Stanford Basic Income Lab

It looks like most pilot programs focus on poverty in some way. Many require people to be less than 150% of the poverty line.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

The actionable solution is...teach grandma about crypto?

If that's what it takes, YES!
If all it takes is someone taking the time to help people understand it, be that someone!
Don't just accept being controlled, because you're not willing to do a little work.

I understand that the older half of the baby boomer generation have struggled with computers, smart phones/TV's, so it will be a struggle for many of them to adapt to "magic internet money". But they did fine adapting to debit cards instead of cash/checks.
There are/will be services that can help them. SwanBitcoin.com is a great example. Fidelity has been involved for quite some time.
So the boomers can still use services they are comfortable with to get involved in Bitcoin (not crypto).
I personally have sat down and helped my own mother (70 yrs old) understand things, and we moved about half of her investment fund to Bitcoin. It's not much, but she now understands that inflation is stealing her value, and wanted to hedge against that.
Plus with the new ETF's, even the conservative folks can use those to get involved if they aren't comfortable with self-custody.
And there are more and more products being developed all the time that are increasing the user-friendliness of Bitcoin, so that will continue to improve over time.

2024 is going to be a monumental time for Bitcoin:
- Wall Street has already embraced it, massively raising the demand for it.
- Main Street banking is now hard pressed to catch up and accept it. And have begun to lobby DC for it.
- Presidential candidates have chosen to use it to get votes, making it a BIG political topic heading into the election. Which will only help in the curiosity and grow adoption.
- The halving cut the new supply in half, while the demand continues to grow.

Look at the bigger picture:
Wealth has always found the harder assets. That used to be gold, real estate, and USD debt in the form of T-bills/bonds.
But with the ever-devaluing of the USD, much of the wealth since the Great Financial crisis of 2008, was going to real estate. But then post-pandemic, as the interest rates kept being raised by the Fed trying to fight their inflation they caused by printing trillions, a lot of the loans that were used to buy the real estate are getting extremely expensive when the terms run out and the new rates go in effect.
And since the Halving, Bitcoin's inflation rate has officially become lower than gold, making it the hardest asset in existence.
So of course, the smart wealth is moving to Bitcoin. It's inevitable.

But don't trust me, verify for yourself. Do the work, invest some real time into educating yourself about it. Maybe you come to a different conclusion than me. That's okay. But you have to put in the time and actually understand Bitcoin and, more importantly, what is money. (21 Days of Bitcoin - Learn & Earn Bitcoin Rewards!)
It's okay to not know what a UTXO (Unspent transaction output - Wikipedia) is, or how it works. I'd say 99% of the population doesn't know how the Fedwire works either. That's not what people need to understand. Focus on what is money, and then you can use that knowledge to compare assets to fiat. Once you do that, it opens your eyes, and you can't unsee it.
Maybe you become a gold bug. Maybe you choose Bitcoin. It doesn't matter, so much that you've seen fiat is the enemy, and that system is rigged against the masses.
2024 is the breakout year, and it's just the beginning! Prepare yourselves now!

 

[AnbaricBike]

How does buying Bitcoin help someone pay their bills? They don't have the money to pay the bill. That's the problem. Some people have literally no money. And if they do have a job & income then their job gets automated away, they stop having money. How are these people going to buy Bitcoin? And why would they if they could? They have costs associated with being alive and they have to pay those costs.

My wife just texted me that our friend just got out of surgery. They had to remove one of his eyes this time. This is probably his 5th surgery in as many years. He was a healthy, strong and stout 45 year old 4 years ago. He ran to work every day. He was constantly exercising and taking good care of himself. Then he got cancer, basically in his face. Now he is all shrunken and shriveled up. He can barely talk. His face is scarred and deformed. Now he just had one of his eyes removed. He has 3 children. He has a mortgage. He faces very high medical costs. Is he in a position to place ANY of his assets at risk on crypto? I honestly don't know whether he even has any assets but I can tell you that a universal basic income would help him more than some crypto position. In fact I don't see how crypto helps him at all. Does it? Is that what you're suggesting here? How?

I don't see why this discussion is even happening in this thread.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

How does buying Bitcoin help someone pay their bills? They don't have the money to pay the bill. That's the problem. Some people have literally no money. And if they do have a job & income then their job gets automated away, they stop having money. How are these people going to buy Bitcoin? And why would they if they could? They have costs associated with being alive and they have to pay those costs.

My wife just texted me that our friend just got out of surgery. They had to remove one of his eyes this time. This is probably his 5th surgery in as many years. He was a healthy, strong and stout 45 year old 4 years ago. He ran to work every day. He was constantly exercising and taking good care of himself. Then he got cancer, basically in his face. Now he is all shrunken and shriveled up. He can barely talk. His face is scarred and deformed. Now he just had one of his eyes removed. He has 3 children. He has a mortgage. He faces very high medical costs. Is he in a position to place ANY of his assets at risk on crypto? I honestly don't know whether he even has any assets but I can tell you that a universal basic income would help him more than some crypto position. In fact I don't see how crypto helps him at all. Does it? Is that what you're suggesting here? How?

I don't see why this discussion is even happening in this thread.

There are tools already available that convert BTC to fiat. I have a Fold card, that can replace your bank account. You can send your direct deposit to it, choose how much to convert to BTC and how much to leave as fiat to pay bills. It's getting easier and easier to move away from fiat and live on a Bitcoin Standard or use a hybrid system that plays well with both.

As for your friend, that's really terrible. I feel for him.
There are already programs in place, like Disability coverage, Medicare, etc... that are specifically designed for his unique situation.
At the same time, you picking an extreme scenario to try and justify UBI for everyone doesn't fit your argument at all.

An unintended consequence that people seem to not understand, or conveniently ignore, is that if a UBI is introduced, those other programs will essentially go away, or at the very least be greatly reduced. The gov has to pay for UBI somehow. No one will answer how they plan to do that (with any detail).
Barring another national emergency/pandemic, the gov can't justify simply printing trillions more in fiat to pay for a UBI.
It would lead to hyper-inflation.

I'm offering BTC as an alternative to a UBI. That's why this discussion is on this thread. I'm explaining my stance.
And rather than getting responses about how a UBI would specifically work and be paid for, I get more questions about why I think BTC is better.
So yeah, I'm going to answer those. And I've done my best to relate those answers to the topic.

 

[Unclepaul]

History has shown us that "free money" is rarely beneficial. People become dependend on this dole and fearful that it will end. They lose their pride and independance. Stop being productive and lives without accomplishment lose meaning.

Lots of stories of people blowing through vast lottery winnings, unexpected windfalls, large inheritances. These rarely end up being of much benefit to our societies.