US Supercharges 20% done ?!?!

[jerry33]

From all I've read, I think originally they intended to not have the hardware built in, but like the custom paint colours, they quickly found that it slowed down production too much. So there probably are a few very early 60s out there that don't have the hardware.

 

[Robert.Boston]

It is interesting to consider the choice of many small vs a few large Supercharger sites. Larger sites have better efficiency statically (Erlang efficiency); there is a huge win going from 4 to 8 or 12 stalls (4->8 is 3.5x; 4->12 is 5x capacity), but the percentage gain starts falling off after that. Also, site acquisition is a bear, and big sites are harder. My prediction is that Tesla will continue with the 12 stalls or so size in busy areas, and gain from there with smart tools in the car. Tesla could easily monitor Supercharger usage and make recommendations to the driver on busy and lightly used sites ahead. One step further and Tesla could add a feature to the Nav function that offers alternatives for Supercharging based on how busy sites are, just like there are alternatives offered in navigation based on traffic; Supercharger usage is just another form of traffic. Offering such info to the driver combines the number of stalls in a region to gain better queueing (Erlang) efficiency.

I predict many 8-12 stall sites with real time usage info given to the user in some form to help users find open stalls.

I agree, with the caveat that there are some routes with few good alternative locations. Consider Harris Ranch -- there's no good stopping point nearby that would be a suitable alternative site. So I predict that the Harris Ranch site will continue to grow in scale.

I expect, though, that we'll see the rapid expansion of 4-stall sites after the main network is done. These smaller stations will support diverse routes economically. It doesn't look like Tesla is putting in anything smaller than 4 stalls, which is a good thing to my mind: it removes many of the single points of failure (remembering that 2 stalls share a lot of gear).

 

[CatB]

When making calculations on how many SpC needed I think one needs to consider that with Model III a higher percentage of owners will have no home charging.

^^^^^ This.
My MS is garaged at my parents' house while I am looking for a house with a garage (large enough for it), and the few times I swap my Prius for the MS, I end up generally using the SC near me. I am pretty sure there have been a few folks who have delayed or cancelled their plans for getting a Tesla because they can't arrange parking with charging. And I remember one guy who had to cancel because his garage wasn't big enough.