Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

US Vehicle loans and Leases

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
A trove of otherwise - I believe - unavailable data there; to me it seems useful for a macroeconomic understanding of the health of the nation rather than, say the automotive industry or any subportion of it.

I’ve gotten through p. 29 and find a number of questions have arisen so I thought I’d best start asking now before I proceed as I’m already forgetting the earlier ones. But so far, only one set of data regarding Tesla, and that of little mickle (pp 20-21: lease, not loan, data).

On p. 28 we find “Average loan term” varies from ~64 - 72. Is the unit # of months? Nothing is given (after writing this, I realized what the question really showed is my risibly ignorant exposure to the world of esp. auto finance: I honestly wondered if the unit was something arcane unique to the sector. But still…).

Same page: “y-o-y change in rate” for, eg, superprime is 1.27%. Obviously wrong; my assumption this is the irritatingly common misnaming of what correctly should be called “percentage point change”….yes? To be unconfusing it would better be labeled 127 basis points, I’d say.
 
A 7.7% rise in loans between 2021 and 2022, or 99 BILLION dollars, to $1.291 trillion, and +15.9% in two years, with much of the growth having occurred within the subprime and deep subprime sectors: Yikes! If the Fed uses these data, it’s no wonder they have acted as they have (p. 43).
 
  • Like
Reactions: mpgxsvcd
@SOULPEDL and any others reading this: PLEASE wait for @unk45 to respond because if it's in the negative, I would never forgive whoever continues its dissemination....and thereby destroys any chance ever of our receiving more, let alone the personal damage that would accrue to him for having been the reason.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SOULPEDL
Nah, why else make it public here? I give him more credit than that. But love the respect for people and data though. It's why I asked.

I have not shared anywhere, still reading and found out how my credit score lines up! Good stuff, thanks Unk!
finished skimming it. not sure what is so secret/proprietary about the data as seems quite generic/non-specific other than folks, like me, prefer credit unions
cheers
btw Starship launch delayed 24 hours to 8am EST Saturday so road trip possible tho not from SW Floriduh
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SOULPEDL
finished skimming it. not sure what is so secret/proprietary about the data as seems quite generic/non-specific other than folks, like me, prefer credit unions
cheers
btw Starship launch delayed 24 hours to 8am EST Saturday so road trip possible tho not from SW Floriduh
Oh, that's the risky part right? Or a scrubbed launch! But then I'll never see one for sure if I don't go.
 
Is this free to share? The Youtube car guys would love this. Pops!
This should not be used on any other platforms without obtaining prior written approval from the authors. In this forum such information is limited to assisting TMC Investor members in our investment decisions. I should have expressly limited that use in the original post.
 
finished skimming it. not sure what is so secret/proprietary about the data as seems quite generic/non-specific other than folks, like me, prefer credit unions
cheers
btw Starship launch delayed 24 hours to 8am EST Saturday so road trip possible tho not from SW Floriduh
The bulk of these data derives from public sources. Cohesive aggregation is exceeding difficult and generally available only on proprietary platforms. In context, my firm and former employers have generated large revenues from such aggregation. In a related, but different example, I presently have the average FICO scores for loan and lease customers of nearly all US OEM directly originated assets. All that information is, technically, public. Aggregation and comparison is exceedingly valuable for competitors.

As with all information similar in kind to this, it is useless unless users can effect policy changes because of this information.

Just as a specific example there is this:
( I present here assertions based on this type of data, but will not dusclose all the sources:

TSLA originated leases in the US have overall credit quality matching and/or exceeding the highest in the industry, with only originations from Mercedes Benz and BMW roughly equal. All include SUV and car originations but not commercial vehicles. On an even more important metric, collateral substitution rate, Tesla is the lowest.

The significance of the previous information is that, despite prejudice against Tesla paper it is growing in popularity precisely because the assets are very low risk, lower than the ratings imply. Further, as Model 3 and more recently Model Y have dominated originations the demonstrated risk levels have NOT declined. Moving downscale historically increases risk, but there is no evidence of such for Tesla.

Thus far the 2022 originations from all major issuers show declines in credit quality and increases in collateral substitution (this metric is an intrinsic measure of fundamental asset quality that is not otherwise reflected in core portfolio data.

So, how is that information useful? After all it does resemble speaking in Greek to an English speaker?

What it tells us is that all the price cuts and promotions have not increased fundamental risk for Tesla.
An implication otherwise might be that losses on lease termination and repossessions should be rising rapidly but that is not supported by the data. However…

When combining this with aggregate auction results (also accessible, but expensive and difficult to aggregate) we begin to understand that the former hyperactive Tesla secondary market has become more like ‘normal’ vehicles.

Suddenly all this yields important forecast perspective. Tesla has had gains on secondary market activity for recent years, accentuated during The Pandemic. The froth is gone! This conclusion can be supported in Tesla financial statements, but without details about components.

With all that we understand just how important non-traditional revenue has become. Such as subscriptions, Megapack/Powerpach, VPP, Supercharger revenue. FSD, Premium Connectivity and everything TE derived services, even collision, Insurance etc.

So, the fundamental problem with knowing the use of aggregated public data is that it usually appears to be generic and obvious.
As @AudubonB implied it is time consuming and not obvious to use this kind of information. FWIW, most industry CEO’s turn off attention when faced with data. Hint: if they need a PoerPoint to understand they will never understand!

Elon Musk and senior Tesla people all devour data and struggle to learn more every hour. That obsessiveness means they are on this kind of data every day and that financial decision-making is rapidly iterating to incorporate events before most competitors know what is happening.

FWIW, such data as this yields decisions that seem spur-of-the-moment such as transfer of FSD and referral revisions. Those actually end improving credit quality, reducing acquisition costs and having high buyer value at modest incremental costs. The recent Supercharging promotion fits the identical logic category.

Sorry for long response. Making this concise without reams of data is difficult, and reams of data always tend to seem boring and irrelevant.

FWIW, companies like SRI, Battelle, and many others are specialists in this arcane part of decision support.
 
The bulk of these data derives from public sources. Cohesive aggregation is exceeding difficult and generally available only on proprietary platforms. In context, my firm and former employers have generated large revenues from such aggregation. In a related, but different example, I presently have the average FICO scores for loan and lease customers of nearly all US OEM directly originated assets. All that information is, technically, public. Aggregation and comparison is exceedingly valuable for competitors.

As with all information similar in kind to this, it is useless unless users can effect policy changes because of this information.

Just as a specific example there is this:
( I present here assertions based on this type of data, but will not dusclose all the sources:

TSLA originated leases in the US have overall credit quality matching and/or exceeding the highest in the industry, with only originations from Mercedes Benz and BMW roughly equal. All include SUV and car originations but not commercial vehicles. On an even more important metric, collateral substitution rate, Tesla is the lowest.

The significance of the previous information is that, despite prejudice against Tesla paper it is growing in popularity precisely because the assets are very low risk, lower than the ratings imply. Further, as Model 3 and more recently Model Y have dominated originations the demonstrated risk levels have NOT declined. Moving downscale historically increases risk, but there is no evidence of such for Tesla.

Thus far the 2022 originations from all major issuers show declines in credit quality and increases in collateral substitution (this metric is an intrinsic measure of fundamental asset quality that is not otherwise reflected in core portfolio data.

So, how is that information useful? After all it does resemble speaking in Greek to an English speaker?

What it tells us is that all the price cuts and promotions have not increased fundamental risk for Tesla.
An implication otherwise might be that losses on lease termination and repossessions should be rising rapidly but that is not supported by the data. However…

When combining this with aggregate auction results (also accessible, but expensive and difficult to aggregate) we begin to understand that the former hyperactive Tesla secondary market has become more like ‘normal’ vehicles.

Suddenly all this yields important forecast perspective. Tesla has had gains on secondary market activity for recent years, accentuated during The Pandemic. The froth is gone! This conclusion can be supported in Tesla financial statements, but without details about components.

With all that we understand just how important non-traditional revenue has become. Such as subscriptions, Megapack/Powerpach, VPP, Supercharger revenue. FSD, Premium Connectivity and everything TE derived services, even collision, Insurance etc.

So, the fundamental problem with knowing the use of aggregated public data is that it usually appears to be generic and obvious.
As @AudubonB implied it is time consuming and not obvious to use this kind of information. FWIW, most industry CEO’s turn off attention when faced with data. Hint: if they need a PoerPoint to understand they will never understand!

Elon Musk and senior Tesla people all devour data and struggle to learn more every hour. That obsessiveness means they are on this kind of data every day and that financial decision-making is rapidly iterating to incorporate events before most competitors know what is happening.

FWIW, such data as this yields decisions that seem spur-of-the-moment such as transfer of FSD and referral revisions. Those actually end improving credit quality, reducing acquisition costs and having high buyer value at modest incremental costs. The recent Supercharging promotion fits the identical logic category.

Sorry for long response. Making this concise without reams of data is difficult, and reams of data always tend to seem boring and irrelevant.

FWIW, companies like SRI, Battelle, and many others are specialists in this arcane part of decision support.

au contraire, this is a _very_ concise response & explanation, explaining vague feelings I have had the last 10+ years traveling the east coast and seeing 10's of 1,000's of vehicles begging to be purchased before they rust away in dealers lots.

That purchasers of Tesla are "super prime"/low risk and remain so despite the large percentage increase
The banks/loan folks like low risk
the available universe of purchasers is declining alarmingly and numbers point towards decreasing ICE and increasing EV's in general & Tesla's in specific
 
Last edited: