thanks for responding folks, I'll try these ideas.
Yep, if your car is sleeping correctly (no Sentry, no third-party apps configured incorrectly, and no other features in use), you should be able to get down to about 1 mile per day these days. You should mostly ignore the first day results however, since BMS adjustments can create dramatic shifts in the displayed rated miles (they can go up or down by several miles at least). (If it's more than a few miles, though, definitely investigate configuration after that first day, just to be sure you've turned off the known drain factors.)
As an example, my last trip in the wilderness was:
Parked at 146 rated miles.
Checked car at freezing temperatures 12 hours later, it showed 150 rated miles. (Wanted to make sure it was configured right!)
Came back to car a little over 3 days later, car displayed 147 rated miles.
So I register that as: ~1 mile per day of loss, with a 4-mile positive adjustment due to BMS re-estimation (note that this could easily have been negative rather than positive - it depends on the BMS error that is being corrected).
If you walk up to the car and it's idle (no contactors clunking after a few seconds), that's generally a red flag. There's only about a 5% chance (1 hour out of 24 hours) of that happening if the car is sleeping correctly. You should nearly always hear clunking when you open your car doors. And you should hear the quieter, distinctly different-sounding, disconnect clunk quite rapidly if you lurk around your car at a moderate distance, after it locks itself. Generally just takes a few minutes (but can take up to an hour if the car has decided to recharge the 12V battery, run the fans to clear AC moisture, etc.).