USPS should probably go EV, but they wont: 16 states sue USPS to block truck purchase

[MontyFloyd]

Mainstream: the ideas, attitudes, or activities that are regarded as normal or conventional;


BEV sales last year were less than 15% of autos sold in the US. Not even close to mainstream.

2022 Super Bowl had 12 BEV commercials (even though most of those cars are on market, even today).

Tesla was the 5th US (6 world wide) to break the $1 Trillion valuation.

Companies that offer EV experiencing months of order backlog.

There is plenty more supporting arguments to say EV is mainstream, even though not common to see on road (I see 2 a day).

 

[Watts_Up]

Are there other countries that have converted their mail fleets to EVs, or have gotten a start on the process?

Germans to build own unique electric vans for postal service

Deutsche Post plans to start production of electric vans designed by a startup it acquired in 2014.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[MontyFloyd]

Germans to build own unique electric vans for postal service

Deutsche Post plans to start production of electric vans designed by a startup it acquired in 2014.

www.greencarreports.com

The Renault-Nissan Alliance currently sells the Nissan e-NV200 and Renault Kangoo ZE electric vans, and several smaller companies have marketed electric delivery vans as well.

Looked like a Renault badge, likely used the Leaf technology,
Regardless, this is excellent.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I disagree. There is only one company that is delivering fully fleshed out EVs, and that is Tesla. Everyone else is just getting started. Yes, we have some cars like the Leaf, but that hardly makes BEVs mainstream. Also, BEVs are not ready for mainstream users; they remain the domain of early adopters who are willing to tolerate the shortcomings and growing pains we are having to endure.

I think they're mainstream now, the way HEVs are mainstream, in that while the percentage of the market isn't huge, only a small proportion of people would consider it odd to own one.

Just the Model 3 has been selling over 100,000 per year for 5 years now.
The Model Y sold over 160k in the USA in 2021.

The sales are bigger than the BMW 3/4 series. Peak Model 3 sales exceeded peak 3 series. Is the BMW 3/4 series not mainstream? It's a premium vehicle, but I don't think you'd call it unconventional or not normal.

EVs are expensive, supply-constrained, not all segments are covered. Those are really what limit sales.

Public DCFC infrastructure, Tesla excepted, is a fragmented, unnecessarily complicated mess, and really that should be resolved within a few years as Plug & Charge becomes the norm for new DCFC, and ultimately destination charging as well, and as that continues to improve, you also remove a barrier and learning curve.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Germans to build own unique electric vans for postal service

Deutsche Post plans to start production of electric vans designed by a startup it acquired in 2014.

www.greencarreports.com

They ultimately spun out the company to sell their vehicle, but it didn't really have a wider market.

 

[ATPMSD]

The principle reason I am unwilling to call EVs mainstream is that there is only one company who is delivering a lot of EVs - Tesla. Everyone else is running ads and filling order books for cars to be delivered in the future - that to me does not signal mainstream. BTW, I am referring to BEVs and not Hybrids, which I agree are mainstream.

 

[MontyFloyd]

The principle reason I am unwilling to call EVs mainstream is that there is only one company who is delivering a lot of EVs - Tesla. ...

... in the USA.

Europe and China are rapidly changing.

Heck, a few years ago the US Right Wing started attacking EV's as some kind of Left Wing plot, who promptly shot back.
A few months ago again due to rising gas prices
Not being common does not mean its not mainstream.

 

[ATPMSD]

... in the USA.

Europe and China are rapidly changing.

Heck, a few years ago the US Right Wing started attacking EV's as some kind of Left Wing plot, who promptly shot back.
A few months ago again due to rising gas prices
Not being common does not mean its not mainstream.

We live in the U.S. If you want to consider it as mainstream that is your right and opinion. Respect the opinions of others.

 

[MontyFloyd]

We live in the U.S. If you want to consider it as mainstream that is your right and opinion. Respect the opinions of others.

You posted valid facts for your opinion, I offered other valid facts.

The US also also vast and varied. For sure some (mostly rural) areas BEV do not exist, in others they are everywhere, no longer a curiosity.

 

[tm1v2]

Mainstream: the ideas, attitudes, or activities that are regarded as normal or conventional;


BEV sales last year were less than 15% of autos sold in the US. Not even close to mainstream.

@AMPd That makes no sense. What percentage of sales is your threshold for mainstream?

Toyota, the best selling car brand in the US in 2021, was just under 15% of automobiles sold. Hrmm, Toyotas must not be mainstream.

Nike shoes were well under 15% of US shoe sales in the US in 2021, probably closer to 11-12%. I guess Nikes aren't mainstream.

Pizza restaurant sales in the US last year were about 5-6% of total restaurant sales. Wow, not even close to mainstream.

With your threshold, has there been a mainstream car since the Ford Model T peaked at almost 50% of the car market?

 

[AMPd]

2022 Super Bowl had 12 BEV commercials (even though most of those cars are on market, even today).

Tesla was the 5th US (6 world wide) to break the $1 Trillion valuation.

Companies that offer EV experiencing months of order backlog.

There is plenty more supporting arguments to say EV is mainstream, even though not common to see on road (I see 2 a day).

@AMPd That makes no sense. What percentage of sales is your threshold for mainstream?

Toyota, the best selling car brand in the US in 2021, was just under 15% of automobiles sold. Hrmm, Toyotas must not be mainstream.

Nike shoes were well under 15% of US shoe sales in the US in 2021, probably closer to 11-12%. I guess Nikes aren't mainstream.

Pizza restaurant sales in the US last year were about 5-6% of total restaurant sales. Wow, not even close to mainstream.

With your threshold, has there been a mainstream car since the Ford Model T peaked at almost 50% of the car market?

Fair point

 

[ATPMSD]

You

@AMPd That makes no sense. What percentage of sales is your threshold for mainstream?

Toyota, the best selling car brand in the US in 2021, was just under 15% of automobiles sold. Hrmm, Toyotas must not be mainstream.

Nike shoes were well under 15% of US shoe sales in the US in 2021, probably closer to 11-12%. I guess Nikes aren't mainstream.

Pizza restaurant sales in the US last year were about 5-6% of total restaurant sales. Wow, not even close to mainstream.

With your threshold, has there been a mainstream car since the Ford Model T peaked at almost 50% of the car market?

You are confusing market share with market size. Market share is if you are a serious player, market size is a way to define if something is mainstream. However, the definition of mainstream for BEVs is highly subjective. Whether someone feels BEVs are mainstream or not is just a matter of opinion.

 

[Earl]

has never met a delivery deadline that it set for itself.

The Model 3 was actually delivered earlier than initial prediction. Of course, it was later than later predictions.

 

[ThomasD]

Most of the mail delivered in my area is done by Jeep Wranglers with U.S. Mail decals and lights. Other types of private motor vehicles are also used to deliver Mail. Can you convince people who use their private motor vehicles to deliver Mail to purchase a long range Model Y? I usually see around 1 to 2 Teslas a week.

 

[3sr+buyer]

Most of the mail delivered in my area is done by Jeep Wranglers with U.S. Mail decals and lights. Other types of private motor vehicles are also used to deliver Mail. Can you convince people who use their private motor vehicles to deliver Mail to purchase a long range Model Y? I usually see around 1 to 2 Teslas a week.

Your area probably will not be much affected by the USPS choice of mail truck.

Areas which mostly see Grumman LLVs delivering mail are those that will be affected.

 

[chuhouse2003]

To kind of play devil's advocate on this, while I agree postal trucks seems like a prime use case for EVs, 10,000 out of 50,000 vehicles ordered being EVs for a vehicle that's never been produced by a company that doesn't have much (any?) experience building electric vehicles for a task which hasn't used electric vehicles at all up to now seems actually like a big bet. It doesn't really seem like a bad idea to let a production run go through a round, see if they're actually able to produce 10,000 in the first place, and then take some time to see how well they operate for the USPS workflow when they're in use, before insisting we go all in on it. Are there other countries that have converted their mail fleets to EVs, or have gotten a start on the process? Difficult to muster a google search that doesn't just pop up variations of this story.

Oshkosh Defense is not building the mail trucks on its own. It is partnering with Ford, who has E-Transits coming out pretty soon.

 

[Big Dog]

On its surface, there is no question than an EV is a perfect vehicle for most mail delivery. But yet they are essentially untested. (How many electric trucks are in service today?) And if Congress gave the USPS more money, they could purchase more. Unfortunately, thousands of their current fleet is antiquated, and needs to be replaced.

Here's hoping the lawsuits are successful. (Not even sure if USPS cares if they lose, as that will force Congress to give them more funds to purchase more EV trucks.) That said, the Govmint has some strong contract folks, who tend to lean left and would love to support more EVs, so I would be surprised if their analysis was far off.

 

[Nda721]

I think we forget the infrastructure needed for all the mail trucks. I’m not sure if any has seen a postal station when all the trucks are parked. There are a lot! And keep in mind not every truck will be able to manage the same route. Depending on the location they are seriously packed in so charging would be interesting. Granted I’m not sure if many are not operating and just down for maintenance.

 

[MontyFloyd]

On its surface, there is no question than an EV is a perfect vehicle for most mail delivery. But yet they are essentially untested. (How many electric trucks are in service today?) And if Congress gave the USPS more money, they could purchase more. Unfortunately, thousands of their current fleet is antiquated, and needs to be replaced.

Here's hoping the lawsuits are successful. (Not even sure if USPS cares if they lose, as that will force Congress to give them more funds to purchase more EV trucks.) That said, the Govmint has some strong contract folks, who tend to lean left and would love to support more EVs, so I would be surprised if their analysis was far off.

USPS uses minivans and SUV, no brainer could use a Model Y or... Well, the MY is the only US made SUV.

Elon should pounce on this ASAP. Make a simple custom version of MY, offer it NOW, and very likely underbid the Oshkosh offer. Watch the political earthquake to follow.

 

[Earl]

Elon should pounce on this ASAP. Make a simple custom version of MY, offer it NOW, and very likely underbid the Oshkosh offer. Watch the political earthquake to follow.

Selling something specifically for the US government can be very dangerous. They tend to overburden you with paperwork and regulatory overhead and other requirements that can really kill you.
They might be better off developing a general delivery vehicle for the industrial market in hopes that the government would adopt it as a commercial product.
One limitation with the Model Y for the mail carrier, however, is that a person cannot stand upright inside it to sort through mail.