WAPO on FSD

[TSLY]

Well researched article in todays's WAPO. Enjoy!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/10/video-tesla-full-self-driving-beta/

 

[Tam]

...WAPO. Enjoy!...

Paywall restriction.

 

[Dewg]

I can understand both sides of the argument. People fear change, it's inherently natural for humans. However, humans also have a need for discovery. It's what drives us forward as a species. It brought us out of the cave, and over the hill, and showed us how to use fire. We went West, then down deep into the oceans, and then into space. Technology has changed our lives, rapidly in the last 50 years. When humans have a problem, we invariably turn to technology to help us solve it. In this case, thousands of people are dying every year from car accidents. So technology steps in and tries to help. Will we eliminate car accidents? Likely no, but we can significantly reduce them.

When someone is hurt or killed by autonomous cars, they, or their families, lash out with their anger. This is understandable, they have to go somewhere with their grief and anger. But it's too personal for them - they can't see the big picture. It's why we don't allow victims of crime to sit on the jury panel in court. Yes, FSD has caused crashes, and that's terrible. But FSD has also reduced accident rates overall, and prevented more than it caused. And the end result, once FSD has left Beta stage, will be much less tragedy and grief.

 

[JulienW]

...People fear change, it's inherently natural for humans.....

Hey, I'm still working on my fear of riding in an elevator without an operator in control (elevators were better in 1922 since they had a human driver). And this is a problem since I live in a high rise.

 

[Dunsel]

Hey, I'm still working on my fear of riding in an elevator without an operator in control (elevators were better in 1922 since they had a human driver). And this is a problem since I live in a high rise.

Yes reading the article was like reading about how the process of riding an elevator was an unbelievably complicated ritual of another civilization — complete with videos on how sometimes, an elevator can get stuck between floors!!!

I can hardly wait for the next installment: “international passenger flights”

 

[Daniel in SD]

Did the first automated elevators do the worst thing at the worst time requiring the user to intervene? I'm really not understanding this analogy.
I'm not saying the FSD Beta is unsafe, it's just not analogous.

 

[Sandor]

Well researched article in todays's WAPO. Enjoy!

Well researched would not be the words I'd used for that article. Just like the majority of today's news articles it is clickbait.... Some real problems, no question and a lot more crap. The UPS truck video is honestly so badly directed and fakish that's funny. The driver's really trying to take control but he never hits the brakes... And you can clearly see him moving the steering wheel. Pure clickbait trash. And while the authors say that:

"The experts include academics who study self-driving vehicles; industry executives and technical staff who work in autonomous-vehicle safety analysis; and self-driving vehicle developers. None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla, and several said they did not fault Tesla for its approach."

further down it notes about the experts:

"Nicola Croce, technical program manager at Deepen AI, which helps companies deploy driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems. Tesla is not one of its clients."

That sounds like working for the competition, right ? I guess if you interpret it literally it's okay, the expert works for a company that is a contractor for the competition only.... he's not a direct employee, so that's technically true...

And

"Hod Finkelstein, chief research and development officer for AEye, a company that sells lidar technology to automakers, said he does not believe cameras alone are good enough to detect pedestrian intent in all conditions, in part because they aren’t good at measuring the distance of faraway objects and can be blinded by car headlights and the sun. Traditional manufacturers of autonomous vehicles have used a combination of cameras, lidar, traditional radar and even ultrasonic sensors for close range."

Same thing, working for a contractor that works for the competition....

One day the so called journalists of 21st century will discovered that they have been replaced by computer algorithms and they are gonna wonder why...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Well researched would not be the words I'd used for that article. Just like the majority of today's news articles it is clickbait.... Some real problems, no question and a lot more crap. The UPS truck video is honestly so badly directed and fakish that's funny. The driver's really trying to take control but he never hits the brakes... And you can clearly see him moving the steering wheel. Pure clickbait trash. And while the authors say that:

"The experts include academics who study self-driving vehicles; industry executives and technical staff who work in autonomous-vehicle safety analysis; and self-driving vehicle developers. None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla, and several said they did not fault Tesla for its approach."

further down it notes about the experts:

"Nicola Croce, technical program manager at Deepen AI, which helps companies deploy driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems. Tesla is not one of its clients."

That sounds like working for the competition, right ? I guess if you interpret it literally it's okay, the expert works for a company that is a contractor for the competition only.... he's not a direct employee, so that's technically true...

And

"Hod Finkelstein, chief research and development officer for AEye, a company that sells lidar technology to automakers, said he does not believe cameras alone are good enough to detect pedestrian intent in all conditions, in part because they aren’t good at measuring the distance of faraway objects and can be blinded by car headlights and the sun. Traditional manufacturers of autonomous vehicles have used a combination of cameras, lidar, traditional radar and even ultrasonic sensors for close range."

Same thing, working for a contractor that works for the competition....

One day the so called journalists of 21st century will discovered that they have been replaced by computer algorithms and they are gonna wonder why...

I think finding experts in autonomous vehicles who have never done any work in the industry is going to be challenging even for the computer algorithms.

 

[Sandor]

I think finding experts in autonomous vehicles who have never done any work in the industry is going to be challenging even for the computer algorithms.

Fully agree with that. But the authors state about the experts that

"None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla".

And that is not exactly an honest statement, but it is one that nobody forced them to make...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Fully agree with that. But the authors state about the experts that

"None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla".

And that is not exactly an honest statement, but it is one that nobody forced them to make...

Yeah, if they sell autonomous vehicle technology that could be competition for Tesla especially since Tesla has said they will also license their technology. I stand by my point that literally every industry expert, except for the ones that work at Tesla, is in competition with Tesla. In fact every person working anywhere is biased because the Tesla Bot is competing for their job.
What's the solution?

 

[Sandor]

What's the solution?

Honesty and truth in advertising on Washington Post writers' part? And let's not even discuss about the conflict of interest due to whom exactly is their ultimate boss

 

[Supcom]

A guy who sells lidar systems is hardly an objective source to use for an opinion on not using lidar on an AV. I mean, what would you expect him to say??

 

[EVNow]

What's the solution?

Talk to experts who are not competing with Tesla or at least disclose conflicts of interest ?

For eg. talk to the inventor of CNN like AI Podcast did ….

 

[Daniel in SD]

Talk to experts who are not competing with Tesla or at least disclose conflicts of interest ?

For eg. talk to the inventor of CNN like AI Podcast did ….

Seems like they did disclose the conflicts of interest for the people quoted. I’m not sure what an AI expert would have to say about the safety of FSD beta. The AI is clearly not the problem, it’s the humans responsible for safely testing it that are the problem.

 

[Sandor]

Seems like they did disclose the conflicts of interest for the people quoted. I’m not sure what an AI expert would have to say about the safety of FSD beta. The AI is clearly not the problem, it’s the humans responsible for safely testing it that are the problem.

They most certainly did NOT disclose the conflicts of interest except way way later in article. They lead with:

"The experts include academics who study self-driving vehicles; industry executives and technical staff who work in autonomous-vehicle safety analysis; and self-driving vehicle developers. None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla, and several said they did not fault Tesla for its approach."

Read the article please before we argue about it any further....

 

[Daniel in SD]

They most certainly did NOT disclose the conflicts of interest except way way later in article. They lead with:

"The experts include academics who study self-driving vehicles; industry executives and technical staff who work in autonomous-vehicle safety analysis; and self-driving vehicle developers. None work in capacities that put them in competition with Tesla, and several said they did not fault Tesla for its approach."

Read the article please before we argue about it any further....

Ok, I don't think they should have put in that claim because everyone involved in the industry is in competition with Tesla. I'm sure the journalist has a much narrower definition of competition. Really though nothing the experts said is very controversial.

Each of these moments — captured on video by a Tesla owner and posted online — reveals a fundamental weakness in Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” technology, according to a panel of experts assembled by The Washington Post and asked to examine the videos. These are problems with no easy fix, the experts said, where patching one issue might introduce new complications, or where the nearly infinite array of possible real-life scenarios is simply too much for Tesla’s algorithms to master.

I guess we'll have to wait to see if robotaxi capability is here by the end of the year to see if the "experts" were wrong. Clearly we have seen that they are right about regressions being a problem.

Their analysis suggests that, as currently designed, Full Self-Driving (FSD) could be dangerous on public roadways, according to several of the experts.

Tesla says this in the disclaimer for FSD Beta. Not controversial IMO.

While some experts in AI are critical of Tesla’s decision to release Full Self-Driving before it’s ready for the road, many say they appreciate the ability to analyze and learn from videos posted by Tesla drivers.

This seems unremarkable.

FSD testers and experts who analyzed the video say it is the first publicly released footage of a crash involving the software. And it revealed flaws.

Ok the "experts" are wrong about this, there are other FSD Beta crash videos.

The Post’s panel of experts said FSD does not appear to recognize pedestrian walk signs, or anticipate that a stationary pedestrian might venture into the street.

Doesn't take an expert to see that.

But as one researcher pointed out, machine-learning algorithms invariably learn lessons they shouldn’t. It’s possible that if the software were told to “never hit pedestrians,” it could take away the wrong lesson: that pedestrians will move out of the way if they are about to be hit, one expert said.

News flash, AI is hard.

The video suggests Teslas may be programmed to slow down for pedestrians if they are moving in the direction of the road, the experts said. But one expert suggested another possibility: The car may have stopped because of an optical illusion.

FSD Beta does slow down for pedestrians moving in the direction of the road and for seemingly random reasons.

Experts say the incident illustrates a fundamental challenge with Tesla’s decision to release software that requires regular intervention by humans. Other companies have bypassed this stage, instead releasing cars that aim to do away with the human driver entirely.

This is dumb. Every AV company does on road testing. This is the only egregious mistake in the article I found.

Many of Tesla’s competitors use high-definition maps to take the guesswork out of where to stop and turn, the experts said. But that strategy raises other issues, including whether any map can keep pace with precise conditions on the nation’s ever-changing network of roads.

Many of Tesla's competitors do use HD maps.

After driving with FSD for about a year, Chris said he thinks it will be a decade before the cars can reliably drive themselves.
The experts who spoke with The Post agreed with that timeline.

Hopefully the experts will be proven wrong later this year.

 

[EVNow]

This is dumb. Every AV company does on road testing. This is the only egregious mistake in the article I found.

One overall theme in anti-FSD articles and posts is that Tesla should do things like other companies do and not in their own way.

What is the real difference between all these experts and “industry experts” ridiculing Tesla because of panel gaps in 2015 ?

 

[Twiglett]

This stuff reminds me of all the articles from "industry experts" that proclaimed reusable rockets weren't economically feasible or couldn't possibly be made to be reliable enough. Before them it was the guys who said EV's couldn't be economical, even the FCA dude is in this camp now.
The usual pattern seems to be that the "Industry experts" that most journalists use tend to be experts in the industry that is being displaced/disrupted, who then go on to explain how "insert plan here" won't work.

 

[EVNow]

The usual pattern seems to be that the "Industry experts" that most journalists use tend to be experts in the industry that is being displaced/disrupted, who then go on to explain how "insert plan here" won't work.

In the case of FSD it is a lot of dogma - apart from the fact that all AV companies need to tell investors that without all the lidars Tesla won’t be able to make it work.

If any AV company says, Tesla may be able to achieve FSD with vision only - why would investors pour in money ?