Watch Autoline this week on Thursday

[moridin2002]

I think it's just the body in white (BIW) he thought was heavy. The thing is, if Tesla really does plan to re-use as much as possible from the 3 for the Y, it makes sense for them to standardize as much of the BIW as they can, which would mean at least some of it has to support both the 3 and the larger Y and will be a little stronger than it would if it was built just for the 3.

After watching the video, I'm kind of on the fence about Sandy. He's knowledgeable, but at the same time he tends to be a little critical of things he by his own admission doesn't understand the purpose of. It's probably just his background as a consultant and being used to questioning/being critical of things, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla had good reasons for what they did.

Take the upper a-arms. If Tesla's using a FRP/steel hybrid part, which is becoming fairly common in civil engineering, it could provide much better stiffness/strength to weight than a pure steel or Aluminum part, and if the FRP does fail, the steel core can hold everything together until it's fixed. I was wondering why Tesla wouldn't use it on other parts of the suspension, but this article suggests that hybrid parts can be adversely affected by exposure to water, especially salt water, so using hybrid parts in the lower suspension isn't a good idea.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9491/6d36ce588cf0edea05e38eb9bc02fa552ffa.pdf

But, Sandy’s experience doesnt exist in a vacuum. His company is taking apart, cataloging, and costing cars, planes, appliances, phones, etc... everyday. Assuming perfect decision making and execution on Tesla’s part is a dangerous road to go down.

 

[moridin2002]

These guys crack me up with their vernier calipers. The average person and even the above average person has never noticed a millimeter or two panel gap. Honestly, how many people other than these techweenies can tell the difference between a "perfect" i3 and a less than perfect Model 3? I think most people just get in their car and enjoy it without agonizing over panel gaps. And honestly, very little of this matters in the performance of a car. My Model 3 looks perfect to me and has no rattles or squeaks, it's without question the highest quality car I have every owned. This is really just inside baseball that most people don't care about, in fact, most people don't even know what a panel gap is. To those that this does matter to.... buy an i3 instead and enjoy your 112 mile range, bicycle tires and Briggs and Stratton range extender.

The gap sizes themselves aren’t necessarily that important, but the consistency is. Too much variability in a manufacturing process leads to issues and points to the possibility that those designing and executing the process don’t fully understand it. End of line fixes, or post production fixes cost money, hurting profitability. Your car may be very good, but that inconsistency can lead to the next person’s being very poor.

Not all i3s have range extenders

 

[TT97]

Please elaborate on why you think Munro is not impartial.

It had to do with the first impression about the Model 3. Munro's clients are the "dinosaur" car companies and felt that his initial impressions on the 3 were biased.

However, watching the last video, my impression of Munro changed (see my comments on post #39). After watching the last video, I felt that Munro was very impartial but the three hosts (especially the guy on the right) were biased against Tesla and seemed like Munro was actually defending Tesla on several of the others' comments.

 

[moridin2002]

It's interesting to see Munro and Associates getting so much press time.

I've personally worked with Sandy for years. He's a good engineer, very detailed, and a straight shooter. As others have picked up, he's a little old school at times

Having personal experience with the work that Munro does, I agree. They are phenomenal at what they do. If you haven’t seen one of their reports, you likely don’t have a concept of their analysis and costing methodologies. Anyone that chooses to dismiss their work and opinions simply because he’s old (or they disagree) seems oddly similar to the logic used to dismiss Elon and Tesla simply because they’re doing something unconventional.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

But, Sandy’s experience doesnt exist in a vacuum. His company is taking apart, cataloging, and costing cars, planes, appliances, phones, etc... everyday. Assuming perfect decision making and execution on Tesla’s part is a dangerous road to go down.

I'm not saying that Tesla's decisions are good, but I don't see why he would assume Tesla's decisions are bad because he doesn't understand them. If he acknowledged he didn't understand something, I would think he would also withhold judgement.

I'm guessing that's because as a consultant, it's better for him to be critical of something and be wrong about that criticism than to withhold criticism of something that did need improvement.

 

[davidc18]

I enjoyed watching the show. Learned a lot about the M3. I was not really surprised at what he found having lived with our MS(s) for some time. Some good (great), some bad and definately some ugly.

 

[stayfocus18]

worth the watch... it was informative

 

[Krugerrand]

Please elaborate on why you think Munro is not impartial.

By the very fact of having an ‘opinion’ means impartiality can not exist.

 

[landis]

I'm not saying that Tesla's decisions are good, but I don't see why he would assume Tesla's decisions are bad because he doesn't understand them. If he acknowledged he didn't understand something, I would think he would also withhold judgement.

He tried multiple times to withhold judgment on things not understood but with the Detroit 'fan boy' atmosphere of the show couldn't quite keep it together. ;-)

I thought it was ridiculous that they took the 'email' on future precision out of context and repeatedly compared with bodies obviously produced in the past. Don't blame them for playing to their fan base.

Some things I think Sandy is missing in bits not understood that I think are mostly covered up thread.

Safety (and longevity) from body strength. For example like from rear end collisions. How does fiberglass provide a rear crumple zone?

Tesla has an agile mindset, (without big upfront manufacturing design) and will continue iterating with very many small refinements over many months of production.

For the costing 'dismantling' to remain accurate, this exercise would need to be repeated multiple times to remain valid.


Edit:typo

 

[mrkymarc]

Definitely think he was very good and insightful when he was in his comfort zone on the details of what was analyzed. Where he started to lose me was when he drifted into speculation. The worst example was in the last few minutes when he speculated that the number of cars in customers’ hands was only 6k when Tesla has produced 10k due to rework/quality issues. Unless Tesla is lying on their financial disclosures they only count cars that are delivered to customers. It’s an obvious error and a huuuge claim to make that 40% of finished cars are in a quality hold. It calls into question his credibility on his more speculative statements.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I thought Mr. Munro’s commentary was fair.

Yes, he has the bias of being an industry insider with decades of experience, BUT, he covered the good, the bad, and the unknowns of the Model 3. Based on his speech and mannerisms, I think he is honest about what he is saying. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose by not saying exactly what he believes.

With regards to the overbuilt unibody and weight, people should be aware that this isn’t new to Tesla. Model S has lost several hundred pounds over the years. Expect the same for Model 3 as the company iterates components and overall design. This is different than how companies like Honda operate. When a design is locked in, it can be expected to be fairly static for the generation of car. Iteration is the exception. When Honda was forced into design changes for the 9th Generation Civic, it took them 18 months to put interior materials changes and a slightly improved front crash structure into production for 2013.

 

[moridin2002]

By the very fact of having an ‘opinion’ means impartiality can not exist.

But their work is not their opinion. It is objective measurement. That’s why so many companies hire them. Now, the opinions about how to change the design or what is good/bad (unless its on a scale comparing measurements) is different.

 

[landis]

But their work is not their opinion. It is objective measurement.

Up to a point.
When he says he doesnt understand and then assumes there couldn't be a good reason, that is the definition of opinion!

 

[Brando]

I think it's just the body in white (BIW) he thought was heavy. The thing is, if Tesla really does plan to re-use as much as possible from the 3 for the Y, it makes sense for them to standardize as much of the BIW as they can, which would mean at least some of it has to support both the 3 and the larger Y and will be a little stronger than it would if it was built just for the 3.

After watching the video, I'm kind of on the fence about Sandy. He's knowledgeable, but at the same time he tends to be a little critical of things he by his own admission doesn't understand the purpose of. It's probably just his background as a consultant and being used to questioning/being critical of things, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla had good reasons for what they did.

Take the upper a-arms. If Tesla's using a FRP/steel hybrid part, which is becoming fairly common in civil engineering, it could provide much better stiffness/strength to weight than a pure steel or Aluminum part, and if the FRP does fail, the steel core can hold everything together until it's fixed. I was wondering why Tesla wouldn't use it on other parts of the suspension, but this article suggests that hybrid parts can be adversely affected by exposure to water, especially salt water, so using hybrid parts in the lower suspension isn't a good idea.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9491/6d36ce588cf0edea05e38eb9bc02fa552ffa.pdf

This article uses data from 1977 - 1996 and a few from 1999, 2002. So 15-45 year old material.
AND this is civil engineering - for bridges, building. Doesn't seem to relevant to me.
Aircraft or Rocket or even transportation vehicles would seem to be much much more relevant, right?
Aluminium and adhesives used a long time in aircraft, right?

side note: expected life for steel reinforced concrete - just 50 years.
problem starts with moisture getting to the steel causing rust. steel to rust is a 50x expansion so you then get cracking and more water and more rust - you get the idea. Add freezing of the water, you know what happens, right? Now if no freezing and in a dry climate (such as parts of California) steel reinforced concrete might make 100 years. Some Roman (not steel reinforced) concrete using very fine volcanic dust to microscopically fill in voids has lasted around 2,000 years.

 

[Brando]

The gap sizes themselves aren’t necessarily that important, but the consistency is. Too much variability in a manufacturing process leads to issues and points to the possibility that those designing and executing the process don’t fully understand it. End of line fixes, or post production fixes cost money, hurting profitability. Your car may be very good, but that inconsistency can lead to the next person’s being very poor.

Highly variable quality? One great and next one just OK and then a poor one ?
Start our low quality and improve over time. I guess this is what we would normally expect, right?

BUT no one so far has shown data nor have they shared observations to tell us what is happening. A lot of speculations.

 

[Brando]

Definitely think he was very good and insightful when he was in his comfort zone on the details of what was analyzed. Where he started to lose me was when he drifted into speculation. The worst example was in the last few minutes when he speculated that the number of cars in customers’ hands was only 6k when Tesla has produced 10k due to rework/quality issues. Unless Tesla is lying on their financial disclosures they only count cars that are delivered to customers. It’s an obvious error and a huuuge claim to make that 40% of finished cars are in a quality hold. It calls into question his credibility on his more speculative statements.

Munro doesn't seem to have learned/seen/analyzed/understood Tesla business model. Sell direct and No dealers.

Tesla builds to actual customer orders for the vast majority of cars. Only demo cars are built for stocking/test drives for Tesla Stores.
Tesla only reports [on a quarterly bases] cars delivered AND paid for. Others cars are listed as cars in transit and they usually claim a 0.5% margin of error.

So I certainly agree with @mrkymarc . Fine observation.

 

[Brando]

Maybe Chevy doesn't like building mass quantities of cars that have negative margins? I guess they like to make money on stuff they sell.

Yes, they really are just compliance cars. How insane to build electric cars and battery factories. Why do you waste your time reading this stuff anyway? Let's go watch a rocket launch and land. Much more fun.

 

[PeterK]

Yeah his amazement with the board really showed his age and how out of touch he is. It's like he expected to see huge capacitors and resistors circa 1990. And then there was the youngest guy pronouncing Nvidia as "Nuh-vidia". Clueless. Munro's level of enthusiasm would have been justified only if the board had an AI specific processor, something we will start to see in computers and cellphones starting next year.

But that just shows the state of the rest of the car industry. He and his team regularly see the electronics in cars, including the BMW i3 and Bolt. And several times he reiterated a warning to the industry players not to be dismissive or complacent.

 

[moridin2002]

Highly variable quality? One great and next one just OK and then a poor one ?
Start our low quality and improve over time. I guess this is what we would normally expect, right?

BUT no one so far has shown data nor have they shared observations to tell us what is happening. A lot of speculations.

Some are obvious just from pictures. Look at what people have been posting on the forum. Visual data is still data, and more than a single point at that.

 

[moridin2002]

Munro doesn't seem to have learned/seen/analyzed/understood Tesla business model. Sell direct and No dealers.

Tesla builds to actual customer orders for the vast majority of cars. Only demo cars are built for stocking/test drives for Tesla Stores.
Tesla only reports [on a quarterly bases] cars delivered AND paid for. Others cars are listed as cars in transit and they usually claim a 0.5% margin of error.

So I certainly agree with @mrkymarc . Fine observation.

I don’t think you undertstand what Munro does and I’m not sure what your comment has to do with their analysis of quality and design. They dont do market and sales analysis. They take apart vehicles (and planes, jets, appliances, mobile devices, etc...), benchmark, analyze, and cost.

Some insight: https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-company-that-tears-cars-apart-to-find-o-1787205420