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Waymo Says Its Self-Driving Tech Is More Advanced Than Tesla FSD, Others
- Thread starter TMC Staff
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Look forward to hearing what Waymo has planned for 2021.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I'm sure they are smooth. On a nice sunny day, in a geofenced area, with Waymo losing gazillions of dollars on every ride.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
They are smooth because the FSD software is smooth.
mikes_fsd
Banned
They finally got their little toys to navigate the 50 sq mile pristine sandbox.
Good for them, now scale that $#!t and show us that it's an actual viable product.
The software is smooth. On a sunny day, in a geofenced area, with vehicle configuration/hardware suite that can't be bought by the end consumer, and with a team of engineers overseeing every ride.
It doesn't solve the problem that (in a non Pandemic situation) I might as well just take an Uber with some guy driving a 10 year old Corolla. I bet Uber loses less money on every ride for their UberX cheap rides than Waymo loses on every robo taxi.
I work in the auto industry in product development. I won't name exact names, but about 5 years ago I worked on a project where an entire engine (that easily goes in half a million vehicles a year) was significantly redesigned to save $200. $200 ! millions and millions of dollars spent to redesign and re tool to save $200 per car, and we're talking here about the superiority of a system that costs many thousands per car. I bet Tesla spends $200 on the entire suite of cameras and radar/ultrasonics for autopilot/FSD.
Tesla's approach is a lot more ambitious, but they understand the importance of cost in scaling the technology.
How many Geofenced rides does Waymo have to give to make money? It's kind of a trick question, it's not about making money on robotaxi rides as it would probably take a decade to do that. It's about selling IP or increasing the on-paper worth of Waymo.
I'll repost this video again about business models that have nothing to do with making revenue. And yes I recognize the irony as a lot of people say this is Tesla's automotive business model.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Or they have hand coded a lot of stuff for that market.
See ... thats the problem with limited geofenced rollout. We don't know what is generic and what is specific to that market.
Taken to an extreme, for eg., we have all seen FSD cars take very long drives. Some even 5 or 10 years back. But nothing came of those because those were essentially hand coded.
Only when Waymo starts opening new markets - every week - we know they have got the "smooth FSD software".
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Waymo is a case where a very deep pocketed company can endlessly lose money on something to compete in the market. If we had a real regulatory mechanism with teeth, it will take care of such cases.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
For the consumer, it is cheaper to take a Waymo ride than to take an Uber.
Tesla has a cheap solution but does not have "true FSD" yet. Having a low cost solution that is not "true FSD" is only half the battle. Tesla needs to perfect the software until they achieve "true FSD". And if Tesla needs to add more sensors or extra hardware to make "true FSD" happen, then the cost may go up by the time they actually "finish" FSD. Tesla's challenge is "finishing" FSD while still keeping cost low.
Waymo has "true FSD" but needs to bring down the cost until it is affordable and profitable. Waymo has brought down the cost already and will continue to bring down the cost more.
The question is who will achieve both low cost and "true FSD" first.
And yes, Waymo can make money by selling the Waymo Driver to automakers who are interested in FSD. Waymo can become a FSD provider to automakers. Keep in mind that Waymo also builds their own hardware. Waymo can probably make money just selling their custom lidar or custom radar to automakers who are looking to outfit their cars with the hardware for FSD.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Tesla has taken way more money from investors than it was earned in profits too... That's just the way new tech works.
Your engine example is perfect. You start with a working engine and then cost down. That's the way it's usually done. Take cellphones for example. The first cellphones were the size of suitcases and cost thousands of dollars. The first Tesla cost $100k+
I'm not saying Waymo will ever make money. Most startups don't.
Look at where the Google self driving car project was a decade ago. Looks awfully similar to the capability that Tesla has today. I'm sure if they wanted to keep that same capability and cost down they could have. That's just not what they chose to do (I think for good reason).
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I have not seen anything to indicate that the Waymo Driver used in these rides is hand coded just for the Chandler area.
Such a great show. That clip is spot on hilarious. “ROI”. Love it.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've linked articles in the past where you can see some details. In parking lots for eg., labelers have hand coded routes to take.
Yes - the actual "code" is perhaps not hand coded (but that is yet to be seen - we'll know how Chandler biased the code is only when Waymo can run in other places) - but a lot of the "smooth driving" in terms of exact routes to take (and perhaps even the precise path within the lane) is hand labeled.
This is not something that can be scaled easily (though they can always throw a few thousand labelers per city with the money they plan to burn).
mikes_fsd
Banned
Uhm, I do not think you understand how the stock market works...
Tesla raised roughly $25 billion, A Brief History Of Tesla: $19 Billion Raised And $9 Billion Of Negative Cash Flow + $5billion in 2020.
Yet, the stock has gone up ~790% just in the last 12 months.
I think the "investors" are doing just fine.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
No, I think we're agreeing. The stock market and private equity markets (Waymo is not publicly traded) are forward looking. Waymo is also worth more money than investors have put in.
All the Tesla fans getting upset that their Lord Musk might be beaten to it by Waymo.
To be fair I supposed Tesla probably will be pretty badly screwed when someone does get there first. Musk has bet too much on FSD being soon and being first.
To be fair I supposed Tesla probably will be pretty badly screwed when someone does get there first. Musk has bet too much on FSD being soon and being first.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Neither of that is true.
There is definitely more than one player who will have FSD cars in X years. Hardly any of Tesla valuation is based on "robotaxi" scenarios.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't know which "investors" you are talking about. But definitely Tesla is worth way more than what it has taken from investors. I've personally made more than 100x my investment. No complaints.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Exactly. You understand that focusing on current profitability of new tech companies is silly and that you need to look longterm.
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