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What is Tesla's Worth?

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,290
40,616
Michigan
So I'm sitting here thinking of the down stock price and wondering to myself, "Is TSLA over valued? How will it grow like other recent stock successes?"

Software sales (Microsoft) are a great money maker, you develop a version once, and then sell multiple copies at the margins. More users more profit.

Apple makes a great profit through branding, hardware refresh cycles, and volume. More sales/ users more profit.

Amazon makes profit through crazy volume, including video, music and software sales along with AWS. Increased profit comes from more sales/ users.

Google sells ads, lots of ads. More users, more profit.

Netflix sells access to pretty pixels (video with markup). Increased profit comes from more users.

Tesla makes cars, those are hard to scale and have long life cycles. You can't just build factories forever. People don't buy cars every two years and throw out the old one just because. So where is the growth? How does Tesla expand? And I came to a conclusion: Tesla sells things that use high energy electrons and then turns around and sells high energy electrons.
In two words: Tesla Energy.

People aren't the subscribers, the cars are. Every car sold needs power, TE makes the eqipment that generates and stores the lowest cost electrons for electric cars. A car is no longer a one time purchase, it is a (high priced) sign on fee to a monthly subscription to the high energy electron channel.

Other EVs aren't competitors, they are just a different brand buying the same energy. 100k miles of S type efficency is 33MWh of energy, with a 4 cent markup per kWh, that is $1,300 in potential renevue for something Tesla doesn't make, maintain, or have any basis in.

Tesla owned solar/ battery installations like the recent island installs are 20+ year revenue streams, akin to a 20 year guaranteed Netflix subscriber. Sales to other entities leverage the cost savings of the power into present dollar sales prices.

Tesla Semi will run on Tesla Energy. All that trucking will be pure profit after a few years of equipment pay off. A 500kWh recharge is $35. Do that twice a week and it's a $3,500 a year subscriber. That's right up there with an annual new MacBook refresh with 0 additional cost.

Boring Company is going to be another subscriber. High initial investment, but then thousands of people being moved with more high energy electrons. Perhaps with solar gantries above the path/ highway providing the power.

Who isn't going to want their own high reliability lower cost electricity source on their roof? Solar tile roofs for new construction and night time energy provided by Powerwall.

To quote AC/DC: Tesla Energy: "high voltage, done dirt cheap"
 

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