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What is the occupancy rate of driverless taxis?
- Thread starter voyager
- Start date
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Might be the same question as asking what is the VOR (vehicle occupancy rate) of normal cabs?
I have been reading different estimates. Here is the one by BCG. It mentions 1.2 passenger for NYC.
Any links would be welcome if you happen to have more info.
According to the graph, driverless taxis need an average of 2+ passengers per vehicle in order to be cost effective compared to vehicle ownership. So driverless taxis need a VOR a bit higher than regular taxis.
I can definitely see a time in the near future where, if ADS is solved and implemented affordably, people just won't own cars and use robotaxis everywhere. We're already in a place where teenagers around me don't even get their licenses until into their 20's and prefer to "Uber" around - using their parents accounts no doubt. 
Given the gridlock and poor or inattentive drivers I see every weekday, letting someone, or something, else drive looks better and better.I can definitely see a time in the near future where, if ADS is solved and implemented affordably, people just won't own cars and use robotaxis everywhere. We're already in a place where teenagers around me don't even get their licenses until into their 20's and prefer to "Uber" around - using their parents accounts no doubt.
"The conservative (lower end) percentage of deadheading miles from ridehailing is 40.8%. The average vehicle occupancy is 1.4 passengers per ride, while the distance weighted vehicle occupancy is 1.3 without accounting for deadheading and 0.8 when accounting deadheading. When accounting for mode replacement and issues such as driver deadheading, we estimate that ride-hailing leads to approximately 83.5% more VMT than would have been driven had ride-hailing not existed.
file:///home/chronos/u-60b309ed7c32b77a7d7b14de5926138e7aa92a74/MyFiles/Downloads/dot_42496_DS1.pdf
Date March 2019
file:///home/chronos/u-60b309ed7c32b77a7d7b14de5926138e7aa92a74/MyFiles/Downloads/dot_42496_DS1.pdf
Date March 2019
That's what MIT also concluded in 2019.
Source: Register to read | Financial Times
There are two main considerations:
A. Could robo taxis replace car ownership?
B. Will ridehail AVs ever be profitable?
Most prominent conclusions:
1. "at current prices, driverless taxis will actually be more expensive for a consumer to use than the old-world way of owning four wheels"
2. "capacity utilisation” — the amount of time an autonomous vehicle is carrying a customer. According to the paper, the taxi occupancy rate stands at 52 per cent in San Francisco... At a 52 per cent occupancy rate this is particularly problematic, in part because the operating costs of ensuring the safe running of a self-driving fleet will be high"
3. "Robo-taxi believers might counter that with improvements in technology. For instance, an AI programme could monitor thousands of cars, spreading the cost burden... A fleet operator could also move the needle by increasing the utilisation rate. 55 per cent, after all, is pretty low."
4. "But with the pooling of rides common place among the ride-sharing platforms, surely the costs come down significantly if multiple passengers are splitting a ride?... "the data shows consumers have an aversion to sharing for-hire occupancy travel, partly thanks to this time uncertainty, and partly down to privacy"
Now, there's an interesting aspect about A. robo taxis potentially replacing car ownership...
with car ownership being so cheap and authorities keep facilitating passenger cars in the U.S.
(think of taxes, parking facilities), breakeven point will be hard to achieve.
In the EU where car ownership and fuel prices are significantly higher, that breakeven point may be
easier to reach. Then again, many of the car costs tend to be the same for fleet operators...
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