When will TSLA recover to 300 and why?

[Wooloomooloo]

Tesla stock tends to slowly rise without any bad news, hence the current barrage of FUD.

We've been in a bull market for about a decade, so all stocks slowly rise without any bad news.

Hindsight is 20/20 but given the stock dropped below $200 today, I'd like to know what the OP did I assume he(?) didn't buy?

 

[Can37]

What I see moving Tesla above $300 is when a demonstration of the Tesla Taxi is made and then operational in a few cities with plans to expand further. Otherwise I don't see Model Y, Roadster, Semi, or Pickup making a significant move on the stock price. Tesla stock tends to slowly rise without any bad news, hence the current barrage of FUD.

The Tesla Taxi project is predicated on getting a working Level 5 AV approved for road use. Tesla is struggling to meet Level 3 even in carefully orchestrated demonstrations. Once we have a working Level 3 car Tesla might be some way towards a Level 5 car or they might not, we simply do not know. Level 5 has a lot of known unknowns and, in my view a huge area that is unknown unknowns as there is a case to be made that Level 5 requires generalized AI, which has been 5-10 years away for 60 years. Given the money that is pouring into AVs, and has been for a long time, I suspect that we are not ever going to reach Level 5. Level 4 is perhaps harder to achieve than Level 5 as predicting that you are about to run out of AV abilities likely needs more AI than just driving.

But let's assume someone can get a working Level 5 AV, the issues of getting driverless cars approved for road use are huge. A new legal framework is needed in every state and province in the US and Canada, and every country world wide. This is not going to be a fast process and many jurisdictions will want to ban AVs as they are very inefficient in terms of vehicle miles travelled - Think Uber in NYC only more so. Traffic issues are going to be made a lot worse when you can send your car around the block while you pick up coffee.

I think the AV push as Tesla is perhaps the fatal flaw in the current business plan. Elon gets a lot of his ambitious goals done, but he also misses many. This one will likely be a miss.

 

[CarlK]

If you look those growth stocks NFLX, AMZN and AAPL, which was still considered a growth stock at that time, during the great recession between late 2000's to early 2010's they actually did very well and much better than the general market. Their value depends more on the outlook than on current market condition Unless if you think the entire US economy will collapse which few did even at those chaotic times.

 

[EVNow]

The Tesla Taxi project is predicated on getting a working Level 5 AV approved for road use.

Not true. You just need something that works better than humans (or better than 4.2 crashes / million miles). They can be level 4 (i.e. for example restricted to a few cities).

 

[Can37]

Not true. You just need something that works better than humans (or better than 4.2 crashes / million miles). They can be level 4 (i.e. for example restricted to a few cities).

Level 4 is perhaps the most difficult level as you have to detect that the car is outside it operational design environment and react accordingly to stop or give control to the driver. This may be as hard as getting to Level 5. Being better than human drivers is not a good criteria. Tesla's current technology is killing people that would not have been in an accident had they been driving the car themselves. Avoiding accidents that humans would have is one thing, creating a new class of accidents that would not happen without automation is another.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla's current technology is killing people that would not have been in an accident had they been driving the car themselves. Avoiding accidents that humans would have is one thing, creating a new class of accidents that would not happen without automation is another.

Getting too OT. You can start a new thread - but there are no cases where AP is "killing" people in scenarios where people have never got killed before. There are literally thousands of cases where people get killed hitting the side of the trailer or hitting the barriers etc.

 

[AustinPowers]

I'm not happy about the current TSLA share price, but I am
a) still in the profit zone
b) sure that it will recover in due course

In the meantime I will enjoy driving my Model 3 and stop worrying about all the FUD.
I daily-drive the answer to said FUD and know what the reality looks like!