Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)?

[diplomat33]

If so Elon Musk would have lied on the 22nd when he said, in an answer to a question, feature complete referred to Level 5 no geofence.

I’ll just rather go with Elon Musk being truthful on the 22nd.

Yes, Elon was truthful on the 22nd but maybe you are misunderstanding Elon which is what I am trying to tell you. When Elon is asked if "feature complete" means "L5 no geofence" and he answers "yes", he means getting all those features on the page done with no geofence and for all weather conditions, hence "L5 no geofence". And when Tesla increases reliability, it will become L5. But Elon is not saying that they will be L5 no geofence in 2019. In 2019, the goal is just getting all those features done, as step 1. Step 2, is getting to L5.

 

[electronblue]

Yes, Elon was truthful on the 22nd but maybe you are misunderstanding Elon which is what I am trying to tell you. When Elon is asked if "feature complete" means "L5 no geofence" and he answers "yes", he means getting all those features on the page done with no geofence and for all weather conditions, hence "L5 no geofence". And when Tesla increases reliability, it will become L5. But Elon is not saying that they will be L5 no geofence in 2019. In 2019, the goal is just getting all those features done, as step 1. Step 2, is getting to L5.

Then Elon has no idea with Level 5 means.

 

[bhzmark]

No disengagement with plain AP2 V8.1 for 200 miles in 3.5 hours with various speed from 70 MPH to stop and go traffic.

No disengagement is easily achievable if you pick the correct routes.

Youtube refused my video with sound due to Arabic music that I listened from Slacker while driving. I had Youtube deal with the issue but it didn't go anywhere so I had to mute the sound myself and re-uploaded a current silent video.

I'll try the commute again but this time will be with NoA in June 2019. I'll make sure to shut the radio off this time so I can keep the sound portion for video on. Stay tune!

What’s in your browser window?

 

[diplomat33]

Then Elon has no idea with Level 5 means.

I can't speak for Elon. But if we combine the FSD order page and the FSD marketing page, we know what features Tesla is selling as FSD:

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars. Handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Park Seek Mode: Your car will drop you off and park automatically.
Enhanced Summon: Your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot.
Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets (based on FSD description page includes):
- Car checks your calendar to determine your intended destination
- Car finds optimal route
- Navigate urban streets (even without lane markings)
- Manage complex intersections with traffic light
- Manage stop signs and roundabouts

That's all the features that Tesla is advertising on their website. So that's "feature complete". That's what Elon has said he believes Tesla will have by end of 2019. Furthermore, Tesla is working to achieve all these features to work with no geofencing at all, in all weather conditions that a human can reasonably handle, and at a safety level far many times greater than a human driver. That is what Elon has repeatedly said is Tesla's goal for FSD when it is finished. We can debate and argue if that is true L5 or not, but that's what we know.

 

[banned-66611]

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars. Handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Park Seek Mode: Your car will drop you off and park automatically.
Enhanced Summon: Your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot.
Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets (based on FSD description page includes):
- Car checks your calendar to determine your intended destination
- Car finds optimal route
- Navigate urban streets (even without lane markings)
- Manage complex intersections with traffic light
- Manage stop signs and roundabouts

Ignoring the massive downgrade from real full self driving, even this seems very optimistic.

For example, Park Seek Mode and Enhanced summon. Doesn't mention you having to babysit the car. And what kind of parking lots are we talking, multistory? Will it be able to navigate from the 12th floor the first?

They don't mention how reliable any of these features are intended to be. Are they level 2 driving aids, requiring a qualified driver behind the wheel, watching carefully and ready to take over with no notice? Or are they level 4, where you can take a nap in the back?

 

[diplomat33]

Ignoring the massive downgrade from real full self driving, even this seems very optimistic.

I just copied and pasted these features directly from the FSD order page and the FSD blurb on the autopilot page which hasn't changed since Oct 2016. So I am not sure how it is a "massive downgrade".

But I would agree that "feature complete" by 2019 does seem a bit optimistic to me.

For example, Park Seek Mode and Enhanced summon. Doesn't mention you having to babysit the car. And what kind of parking lots are we talking, multistory? Will it be able to navigate from the 12th floor the first?

They don't mention how reliable any of these features are intended to be. Are they level 2 driving aids, requiring a qualified driver behind the wheel, watching carefully and ready to take over with no notice? Or are they level 4, where you can take a nap in the back?

Tesla has been clear that these features will require driver supervision at first until they get more reliable. So FSD will start with driver supervision but later be true L5.

 

[electronblue]

That's what Elon has said he believes Tesla will have by end of 2019.

...yes, and on the 22nd Elon said more than that. You keep dismissing it, probably because you don’t believe Musk, but nevertheless he was clear about it.

 

[diplomat33]

...yes, and on the 22nd Elon said more than that. You keep dismissing it, probably because you don’t believe Musk, but nevertheless he was clear about it.

What did he say that I am missing? I remember him saying feature complete by 2019, and FSD is L5 no geofence and robotaxis with no steering wheel by 2020.

 

[electronblue]

What did he say that I am missing? I remember him saying feature complete by 2019, and FSD is L5 no geofence and robotaxis with no steering wheel by 2020.

He answered a question about what he means by feature complete. That is where he doubled down on Level 5 no geofence feature complete (prototype level of course) by end of 2019.

He could have said anything, instead he just said ”Yes” and smirked for maximum TSLA effect no doubt.

I look forward to it soon.

 

[Tam]

I would like a youtube channel with videos showing people driving for miles and miles, like an entire 45 min-1 hr commute, with AP on, without disengagements....

I almost made it but the Autopilot Computer crashed after about 3 hours or 170 miles into the drive at 2:54:46 so I had to take over once. The entire trip was more than 200 miles for almost 5 hours with Navigation on Autopilot with 1 disengagement on Tesla Model 3 Enhanced Autopilot AP2.5. Firmware version 9 (2019.12.1.2 5c87371)

This is a first time that I tried this feature on a long trip and I am quite impressed with it considering it's still beta and a driver has to babysit the system at all times!

There were close calls or brainless maneuvers that I would normally take over but I just wanted to see how the system works without my intervention.

Visalia to Anaheim, CA:

CA-198W to CA-99S to I-5S to CA-91E to CA-57N

Data graph tracked by teslafi:

It seemed to be polite to move out of the passing lane at 70 MPH to join cars in a slower lane and let faster cars passed it then it would then continue to join the passing lane to pass cars in slower lane.

As usual, it also handled many road constructions very well including entering into the physically wrong lane that's temporarily redirected for construction.

I knew I was in the wrong side of the road because the road sign was pointing for cars driving in the opposite direction:

Tesla Autopilot can drive in the temporarily "wrong" road as allowed by road constructions but I don't think any other competitor could accomplish Tesla's generalization in automated driving thus far.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is a first time that I tried this feature on a long trip and I am quite impressed with it considering it's still beta and a driver has to babysit the system at all times!

Cool. Totally and completely off-topic... ....What I find most impressive is that fantastic RWD efficiency. I realize things slowed down a bunch at the end, but still, 191Wh/mi is incredibly fantastic. On target for a full discharge range of 372 miles. (1.145*325rmi is my calculation, using the ~219Wh/rmi baseline constant, corresponding to a 325-mile rated range. ) Or 360 miles (Alternate calculation is 215.75mi/0.6). Not enough experience with the TeslaFi data to know which is more likely to be correct. Anyway, amazing.

 

[Tam]

...Not enough experience with the TeslaFi data to know which is more likely to be correct...

If it's not correct, it's pretty close and believable. It climbed up 4144 foot Tejon Pass but it recovered on the way down. I think the miser number is because of significant slow as well as stop-and-go traffic.

Lifetime 230 Wh/mile is due to lots of "flooring the accelerator" demonstration for friends and family.

Yes, Model 3 LR, RWD is quite efficient.

 

[electronblue]

I almost made it but the Autopilot Computer crashed after about 3 hours or 170 miles into the drive at 2:54:46 so I had to take over once.

How did this Autopilot computer crash manifest itself? Are you saying it rebooted?

 

[Tam]

How did this Autopilot computer crash manifest itself? Are you saying it rebooted?

"Crash" sounds dramatic but if you look at the instrument cluster, it looked all normal except all the Autopilot related including Cruise Control icons disappeared suddenly.

Because my hand applied a slight torque on the steering wheel, I could get the feedback from the automated force. But that feedback suddenly stopped. I felt no more automated torque. The car slowed down so I had to manually control the speed.

If my hand was not applying a slight torque on the steering wheel, I would not know immediately that Autopilot Computer just crashed and the car could have drifted off.

There were no visual nor audio alarm warning that Autopilot Computer had just crashed.

 

[electronblue]

@Tam Interesting, thank you. How long did it take for things to return to normal — I wonder if the APE rebooted or the Autopilot software restarted or something of that kind?

 

[GeoX750]

I almost made it but the Autopilot Computer crashed after about 3 hours or 170 miles into the drive at 2:54:46 so I had to take over once. The entire trip was more than 200 miles for almost 5 hours with Navigation on Autopilot with 1 disengagement on Tesla Model 3 Enhanced Autopilot AP2.5. Firmware version 9 (2019.12.1.2 5c87371)

This is a first time that I tried this feature on a long trip and I am quite impressed with it considering it's still beta and a driver has to babysit the system at all times!

There were close calls or brainless maneuvers that I would normally take over but I just wanted to see how the system works without my intervention.

Visalia to Anaheim, CA:

CA-198W to CA-99S to I-5S to CA-91E to CA-57N

Data graph tracked by teslafi:

It seemed to be polite to move out of the passing lane at 70 MPH to join cars in a slower lane and let faster cars passed it then it would then continue to join the passing lane to pass cars in slower lane.

As usual, it also handled many road constructions very well including entering into the physically wrong lane that's temporarily redirected for construction.

I knew I was in the wrong side of the road because the road sign was pointing for cars driving in the opposite direction:

Tesla Autopilot can drive in the temporarily "wrong" road as allowed by road constructions but I don't think any other competitor could accomplish Tesla's generalization in automated driving thus far.

This is an impressive feat, still trying to scrub through the whole video and get my head around it.

It maybe that you are a far more patient and tolerant driver than I am. Driving in the right lane and going over some of those rough sections of pavement is something I cannot currently do.

In fact, starting to think I FSD is just not for me. I could never give up driving to the car, unless it was programmed to drive just like me.

Congrats to you though !

 

[Tam]

@Tam Interesting, thank you. How long did it take for things to return to normal — I wonder if the APE rebooted or the Autopilot software restarted or something of that kind?

It started to quit at 2:54:49 and then started to work again at 2:56:56 or for the duration of 2 minutes and 7 seconds.

I was wrong to think that there were no warnings. Now, that I reviewed the video, the instrument display did say "Cruise not available" and there were the discontinuing or quitting-function or function-not-available alarm "DING ding" and quick "DEET DEET DEET DEET".

I would like to credit myself that I fixed it but I don't think I did.

In the beginning, I thought the system penalized me because perhaps I didn't know that I failed to apply light torque.

To get out of the penalty, I did put the car in to park gear and the system would let me go again but it did not.

I electronically shut down the car by the display screen but it didn't help.

It just then came back on its own with no problem since then.

 

[Tam]

...It maybe that you are a far more patient and tolerant driver than I am...

I was testing it so I had no choice but to let it do its job even when there were many times I would want to take over if I was not recording its performance.

...In fact, starting to think I FSD is just not for me...

The automation is still so inexperienced so definitely it is not for everyone.

Although it is still in its beta and it is true that its judgement is not as good as human

(it was in the passing lane with no cars waiting behind me and I could see the traffic was slow on the right hand lane but far away so it made a decision to vacate the passing lane and to go back to the right lane just in time to get back to the passing lane again to pass the slow traffic that I saw a long way ago. It's either near sighted or not smart enough!)

but I think it's very helpful if I want to use it and override it as needed.

 

[W2JO]

Yes, Elon was truthful on the 22nd but maybe you are misunderstanding Elon which is what I am trying to tell you. When Elon is asked if "feature complete" means "L5 no geofence" and he answers "yes", he means getting all those features on the page done with no geofence and for all weather conditions, hence "L5 no geofence". And when Tesla increases reliability, it will become L5. But Elon is not saying that they will be L5 no geofence in 2019. In 2019, the goal is just getting all those features done, as step 1. Step 2, is getting to L5.

If all this means that something approaching L5 will be operational by the end of 2019, Why will Tesla not give us a guarantee in WRITING that at LEAST Level 3 (without government approvals) will be available by the end of 2021? I have made this request twice with an offer to buy a Model S immediately if they agree.. No agreement!!!

 

[diplomat33]

If all this means that something approaching L5 will be operational by the end of 2019, Why will Tesla not give us a guarantee in WRITING that at LEAST Level 3 (without government approvals) will be available by the end of 2021? I have made this request twice with an offer to buy a Model S immediately if they agree.. No agreement!!!

Elon is not promising "something approaching L5" by end of 2019. That's not what "feature complete" means! "Feature Complete" just means all the basic pieces needed to be L5 in the future. But "Feature Complete" in 2019 will most likely be L2.